But in my eight years in politics I have met dozens of diplomats of the western world. And I can say it today that whenever I interact with them, I often get the feeling that I am a glorified informer. I am sure the story is the same for all my fellow comrades. They come, enquire; see if there is any potential threat emanating from this conflict zone which might impact some facet of the Western life. And if they sense threat, they are quick to ensure that action is taken. Apart from that they gather a lot of information about human rights abuses, follies of the state etc. These weak points are then used in the world of diplomacy to coerce or convince states to secure concessions in various relationships between states.
It is very unlikely that President Obama’s visit is going to be different. The maximum that we can expect from him is the style of usage of the typical diplomatic language and most likely he will assert – we will encourage dialogue between India and Pakistan. So far the word Kashmiri has been absent from the American lexicon in the last two years. President Obama was very pro-active during his political campaign and the K word was uttered too many times than in any previous campaign.
It did seem that he might be different. But after taking over, the Indian lobbyists in the United States ensured a steady dilution of his concept to an extent that the America’s envoy on Afghanistan got his mandate curtly cut to leave out South Asia or Kashmir. This is the reality of states. They have permanent interests not permanent friends. I am by no means trying to advocate the futility of advocating Kashmir in the diplomatic community. But there is a limit within which even a country as powerful as America will intervene in the Kashmir dispute, unless it feels that its interests are hampered by absence of resolution.
There was a time when it did seem that the Af-Pak issue might somehow impact Kashmir with the irresolution of the Kashmir dispute being seen as an impediment in bringing peace in the region. Kashmir was seen as a part of the peace equation in the region.
That was the driving force behind Obama’s doctrine of peace during his campaign. But all this changed when he took over and the lessening of American interest can be linked to the advocacy of the Indian counter argument of de-linking Kashmir from overall peace in the region. The other worrying factor for the Americans is the prospect of two nuclear armed states going to war.
And the Americans have managed to avert that in the past and are quite confident about averting it in the future. So it seems very unlikely that President Obama will have a magic wand in his hand which he will wave at the Indian and mesmerize them into resolving Kashmir.
There are lessons to be learnt. Anuraditi Roy came to Kashmir and spoke at a seminar. She is a famed novelist with a booker prize under her belt and is an Indian. She has attracted a lot of news which means awareness among the Indian masses. There are many others as eminent Indians out there, who might not be a part of the decision makers in India but form a part of the elite opinion making group in India. Maybe it is time to move and reach out to them and create an opinion within India for resolving Kashmir.
If ever the leadership and the civil society in Kashmir actually deliver and reach out to the Indian opinion makers with sincerity, it will certainly put a lot of internal pressure on the Indian state to resolve Kashmir. A similar exercise needs to be undertaken in Pakistan. I would safely place my bets on the people of these two countries. They are the biggest assets which we might have simply ignored.
The Obamas will come and go, sign a few deals, disagree over some and if disagreements outweigh the agreements, heighten the pitch on Kashmir and if perverse is the case, use mild words of encouraging dialogue between India and Pakistan. And then the circle of visiting diplomats, photo-ops with Kashmir leaders, information gathering will start once again. The people of India and Pakistan have no such compulsions. Better late than never.
Sajad Gani Lone can be reached at lone.sajad @gmail.com
