In the just concluded Lok Sabha 2024 elections, the ruling BJP was missing from the contest in Jammu and Kashmir but ensured Kashmir remains part of the campaign almost everywhere, reports Faiqa Masoodi
In Kashmir’s history, almost every election acquires some distinction that makes it interestingly different. The Lok Sabha 2024 had also its hallmark. While the ruling BJP ensured no public meeting across India in which the star campaigner would not talk about Kashmir, the party remained absent on the ground. It campaigned, talked and voted but not for its candidates, at least in Kashmir. It had its like-minded in the fray at three Kashmir berths.
Initially, it was presumed that Ram Mandir would be the main poll issue but, as the campaign suggested, Kashmir overshadowed almost every other issue.
Despite skipping direct participation, the BJP told too many tales to the voters within and outside Jammu and Kashmir. With these stories of “achievements” and “interventions”, the party remained always in the news, thanks to Kashmir. Apart from hawking the last five years of their Kashmir management, they set a new target for the government, if elected: to get back the part of Kashmir that is with Pakistan. Some of its leaders even told public gatherings that the new government would get the other Kashmir within six months if re-elected to power.
It was one of the most peaceful elections in recent history. No gun rattled anywhere. No bomb exploded either. There was no boycott, a Kashmir separatist intervention that had gradually emerged as a tool for the political parties. However, there was an interesting campaign of party-specific boycotts that all top BJP leaders spearheaded asking people not to poll for the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP). All political parties participated and the participation of youth and women was impressive. There were clear indications that members of the banned Jamaat-e-Islami were willing to participate in elections if the Government of India lifted the ban.
370 Seats
Prime Minister even attributed his party target to Kashmir. “One of my party colleagues from Kashmir told me that since the BJP has abrogated Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir it should give the slogan of 370 seats in the Lok Sabha elections,” Modi said in a recent interview. “And then the slogan of BJP 370 seats and NDA 400 Paar spread and became the voice of the people.”
It was Article 370 that dominated the campaign from Jammu to Kerala. “Article 370 was the agenda of only four-five families,” the Prime Minister said in another interview. “It was neither the agenda of the people of Kashmir nor the agenda of the people of the country. For their benefit, they had built such a wall of 370 and used to say that if 370 was removed, there would be a fire…Today, it has become true that after the removal of 370, there is a feeling of more unity. The feeling of belongingness is increasing among the people of Kashmir and hence, its direct result is also visible in elections, and tourism.”
The Security Measures
On his part, the home minister, Amit Shah used to talk about the strong security measures his government took to send out a “tough message”. His latest is that no family member of any militant or a close relative of a stone pelter can get a government job in Jammu and Kashmir.
“In Kashmir, we have decided that if someone joins a terrorist organisation, their family members will not get any government job,” Shah told PTI in an interview. The same rule would apply to a stone pelter. However, if somebody emerges as a whistleblower, he will be rewarded.
Highlighting other interventions, Shah, who made an overnight visit to Kashmir at the peak of campaigning, said his government stopped the trend of people assembling over militant funerals by denying the bodies of slain militants. On terror funding, he said the federal investigator, National Investigation Agency has taken “strong action” and ended it.
Statistics indicate that the militancy-related incidents have gone down phenomenally. In 2018, for instance, there were 228 militancy-related incidents were reported in Jammu and Kashmir, which fell to 50 in 2023; encounters were down from 189 to 40, civilian killings fell from 55 to five and the death of security men nosedived from 91 to 15.
Vast Stake Holding
From the reading down of Article 370 to the ground realities in Kashmir, the ruling BJP has succeeded in conveying to the people across India that Jammu and Kashmir has changed and the new Naya Kashmir is a reality. The people on the ground do feel that by integrating Kashmir with the union fully, the valley has come closer to the rest of the country.
“We may agree or not but the fact is that the people are accepting it and this has given a stake-holding to the common man,” one keen Kashmir observer, who spoke anonymously, said. “This is being reflected on the ground. 94 flights are flying to Srinagar in May. A section of the tourists ensure they reach Lal Chowk and have a selfie. This is what they have succeeded in selling the people.”
Official sources said that by now more than 1.25 million tourists have visited Srinagar and the scorching heat in the plains is adding to the load to the extent that the infrastructure issues are being felt. The entire Kashmir is sold out till June. Now the government is contemplating the idea of creating a five-star hotel in each of the ten Kashmir districts.
Mass Participation
In the just concluded election, the people participated in huge numbers. The Election Commission of India put the Combined Voter Turnout (VTR) in five Lok Sabha seats in Jammu at Kashmir at 58.46 per cent, the highest in the last 35 years.
The Udhampur and Jammu always had a massive participation to its credit. It was this time too – 68.27 and 72.22 percent respectively. The participation was impressive in the case of three Kashmir seats. The three seats in the Kashmir — Srinagar (38.49 per cent), Baramulla (59.1 per cent) and Anantnag-Rajouri (53 per cent) recorded the highest voter turnout of their recent history. The polling breached the records maintained since 1989. The participation is being seen as important because these were the first in Jammu and Kashmir after the reading down of Article 370.
The previous high for the three Kashmir berths during the militancy years was 45.86 per cent recorded in 1996. That election, however, was controversial because of widespread allegations of bogus voting as JKNC had stayed away.
This added to the BJP’s argument that its interventions in the last five years have been positive. “I am happy that people in Kashmir voted for Kashmir and the country,” Prime Minister Modi said. “Sixty per cent polling in the Valley means the people there respect the Constitution and the tricolour.” he added: “When the common man votes there (Kashmir), it is not just to make someone win. Voting means that the voter accepts the Constitution of India and expresses his dedication towards the entire spirit of India… By voting, they have given a message to the world and to those who used to have doubts.”
Buttressing the Prime Minister, Amit Shah said the “overwhelming” participation was a vindication of Modi’s Kashmir policy. “It was a very big victory for the democracy and a big success of the Narendra Modi government’s Kashmir policy, which it has been pursuing for the last 10 years,” Shah said. “Some people used to say that people of the valley do not believe in the Indian Constitution. But this election was held under the Indian Constitution because Kashmir’s Constitution is no longer there. It was scrapped. The election was held under the Indian Constitution. People who sought a separate country, even they cast their votes overwhelmingly, both at the organisation level as well as individual people.”
One Truth
This is what is being said publicly and through the media. It has its impact on the ground.
“This may not be the whole truth but this is the truth too. There are many truths in Kashmir but they are selling their part of the truth,” the observer said. “The rest of the truth may not have an eco-system to move around. It may spread around but that will take its own time.”
The stakeholders in the local politics have their interpretations of the improved participation. “The people have identified themselves with our campaign; they have joined in large numbers and with enthusiastic crowds,” Omar said over the better participation in polls. “But it is also true that there is a general sense of betrayal that what happened on August 5, 2019, was the betrayal of all the promises and commitments made to the people of Jammu and Kashmir.” Added one of his leaders from Jammu: “Their votes are a powerful statement against the unresponsiveness of the present administration and its disconnect with the public.”
The Other Truth
There are shades of truth. One truth is that the local political class found it possible for the first time to reconnect with the masses. They utilised this campaign to reconnect to the extent that the JKNC, which is presumed to be the major vote taker in this election, had not even a manifesto. Its leaders just talked: talked about the ‘betrayal’, the BJP, its ‘proxies’, the identity and technically promised nothing.
The PDP, the second major regional party that is in survival battle, told people that they are using this campaign to challenge the order of silence so that people feel encouraged to speak, disagree, and talk.
Both parties asserted that the people must come out and get counted in polling booths. People obliged them.
While the entire political class is happy that the improved participation in polls is a great thing, they are not ready to second what the Prime Minister and Home Minister are saying. They do not admit it to be a vote for the status quo but against it. JKNC and PDP leaders insist that the entire vote share they will have is against the BJP’s decision-making and not in vindication of that. The rest of the votes that others will poll can be debated, however.
