Four people including three civilians and a cop were killed in a series of violent incidents on the other side of the Line of Control (LoC) after the region broke in protest over expensive energy, inflation and staple food costs, writes Masood Hussain
With the Valley busy in the first post-2019 elections, Kashmir on the other side of the Line of Control (LoC) burst into an instant unrest that led to the lynching of a cop as almost 100 protestors and Pakistani security men survived with injuries. Pakistani and international media reports suggested the crisis resulted from pent-up anger over the denial of energy to the region which is a major contributor to Pakistan’s hydroelectric kitty.
The New York Times quoted Muzaffarabad residents claiming a “strong sense of anger and frustration” among youth because of “political disappointment, high inflation and severe unemployment”. Demand for cheap energy remains the main issue that triggered the slow-motion build-up to this anger.
The Crisis
It started on May 11, Friday, when the entire region falling under Mirpur (Mirpur, Kotli and Bhimber districts), Poonch (Bagh, Haveli, Poonch, and Sudhnuti) and Muzaffarabad (Neelum, Jhelum Valley (Hattian) and Muzaffarabad) divisions resorted to a crippling shutdown on a strike call sponsored by the Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee. The Committee has been seeking “provision of electricity as per hydropower generation cost” with the region, “subsidised wheat flour” and an “end to “luxuries” of the elite class”.
On May 8, 2023, it was exposed that the federal government was offering subsidised flour to Gilgit Baltistan unlike the rest of Kashmir under its control. Soon protests started in Rawalakot areas. Tensions mounted as new taxes on electricity bills were introduced in August 2023, which triggered student protests at Muzaffarabad University until September 5, 2023. On September 17, the Awami Action Committee was formed. The establishment arrested the activists on September 30 and set them free on October 4. Negotiations between the two sides continued between November and December 2023 on the 10-point demands. The government agreed to nine but not the only one involving the power tariff.
On December 23, 2023, it had reached an understanding with the government. The administration followed up the decision by issuing a notification on February 4, 2024. However, in April 2024, the Committee said the promises were not kept and decided to protest. They alleged that the administration did not freeze the power tariff and flour costs on June 2022 levels as was agreed upon.
In anticipation of the May 11, long march, the establishment cracked down on Committee people and arrested 70 activists including student leaders on May 9. The same day, at Dodyal (Mirpur), a deputy commissioner was severely beaten up, and stripped and his vehicle set on fire when he ordered a mob to unload.
During the intervening night of May 9 and 10, 2024, the police arrested the Committee leader but not in the Poonch division, where the administration “adopted a different strategy” because it is “known for its martial mood”. So, the arrests of activists were avoided and alongside “visible heavy deployment of police contingents”. This triggered clashes in Mirpur’s Dadyal tehsil. This led the Committee to advance the march to May 10. Friday witnessed a crippling shutdown and wheel jam.
After Friday prayers, the clashes started at various places in Muzaffarabad. Protesters resorted to stone pelting and the cops fired tear smoke shells. “The Neelum Bridge and Bank Road wore scenes of a battleground till late evening, where video footage showed stones being thrown at the police from the western side. In return, police responded with tear gas shelling and firing in the air, in addition to stone pelting,” The Dawn reported from Muzaffarabad, insisting the Committee leader Shaukat Nawaz Mir who escaped arrest earlier addressed various gatherings. “In retaliation, police resorted to teargas shelling which badly affected people even in their homes and mosques.”
On Saturday, a police sub-inspector Adnan Qureshi was killed and other cops including a station house officer (SHO) were injured. He sustained a gunshot wound in his chest at Islamgarh in Mirpur. In Kotli alone, 28 protesters and 78 cops were injured.
The Response
Straddling the Line of Control, the entire area is heavily militarised. So, the fast-deteriorating situation led Islamabad to get into a quick flame-dousing. Some officers were shunted out quickly.
According to Radio Pakistan, the Pakistan President asked the region’s political parties, institutions and the people to “act responsibly” so that “hostile elements could not exploit the situation to their benefit.” His predecessor, Arif Alvi said the imagery coming out suggested a “real brutal input of those who think, believe and act on their rudimentary idea that: ‘Force is the only solution to all human problems.’”
Shahbaz Sharief, the Pakistan Prime Minister announced US $80 million in financial support. These funds were supposed to be utilised to offer a concession of Rs 1100 per 40Kg to sell at Rs 2000, besides reducing the electricity tariff by Rs 3, Rs 5 and Rs 6 per unit for up to 100, 300, and more than 300 units, respectively. Quickly the establishment at Muzaffarabad issued the orders.
The unrest occurred when an IMF mission was visiting the country to negotiate a new long-term loan with Islamabad. The cash-starved country is battling 17 per cent inflation; right now. Islamabad expects a US $6 billion bailout package from the IMF.
The New Crisis
Presuming that the issue was settled and there would be no tensions, the establishment asked the paramilitary Rangers to march out of the area. They had been deployed on law and order duty.
On May 13, they were asked to move out. “Instead of moving out of the territory via Brarkot — the village bordering Khyber Pakhtunkhwa — they chose to exit the region from Kohala,” The Dawn reported. “As the 19-vehicle convoy, including five trucks, reached Muzaffarabad in a “charged atmosphere”, it was pelted with rocks near Shorran da Nakka village, to which they responded with teargas and firing.” The residents set afire one of their trucks as well.
The newspaper said that when the Rangers entered the city through the Western Bypass, they were “welcomed with rocks again”, prompting them to use teargas and bullets. “Divisional Commissioner Muzaffarabad Sardar Adnan Khurshid told The Dawn that at least three persons had died in firing by Rangers and another six had suffered wounds. The commissioner identified the deceased as Saqib, son of Shabir from Plate; Waqar, son of Babu from Dara Batangi; and Azhar, son of Majeed from Chehla Bandi areas of Muzaffarabad,” the newspaper added, insisting the talks between the two sides had failed on Sunday night.
Earlier Tensions
While the inflation and the power tariff have been the key issues there for a few years, the region’s veteran journalist, Tariq Naqash has reported that it had another angle as well. On April 22, 2024, he wrote that the Muzaffarabad establishment had “clandestinely” requested Islamabad’s interior ministry to place six additional platoons of civil armed forces at its disposal for three months to “strengthen” the security grid to ensure “foolproof security of Chinese nationals and our strategic national infrastructure such as Neelum-Jhelum powerhouse, Mangla powerhouse, and Gulpur powerhouse.” Besides, the letter had highlighted the requirement in the wake of the May 11 march call by “sub-nationalists and other disgruntled subversive elements” who intend to create a law and order situation by forcibly closing markets and disrupting public service delivery.
As the communication was leaked it triggered a controversy and a serious political debate. On May 6, hundreds of people holding black flags took to the streets in Rawalakot to protest the possible deployment of “Pakistan’s civil armed forces”. Region’s politicians including Prime Minister Chaudhry Anwarul Haq and his minister Waqar Noor denied the deployment was linked to the Committee call, still, the news went viral. Haq’s predecessors Raja Farooq Haider (PML-N) and Sardar Abdul Qayyum Niazi (PTI) denounced the decision. Their response suggested the deployment in the “peaceful region” would create “a negative impression” and provide “India an opportunity to propagate” against it. “Summoning the civil armed forces from Pakistan in the name of the security of Chinese workers is unlawful and unconstitutional because the matter has not been placed before and approved by the cabinet,” the region’s Supreme Court Bar Association president was quoted as saying. “The irony in this state is that whoever raises voice for the rights of people and state is dubbed as traitor. I want to make it clear that neither are we (lawyers) against the state nor are we traitors. But we do not need certificates of patriotism from anyone.”
“Largely nonviolent, the movement has now entered an ugly phase where speculations are rife that the federal forces, such as the Frontier and Punjab constabularies, recently sanctioned by Islamabad to be deployed …to protect the Chinese personnel and CPEC projects, will be used against the protesters: the same has happened in Poonch during the armed uprisings of 1950 and 1955.” Qaiser Khan wrote in an analysis. “Few may be aware that since its inception, … continuously fought to retain and further strengthen its quasi-sovereign status.”
The region, it may be recalled is politically unstable. Governed from Muzaffarabad, it has a 53-seat assembly of which 45 are elected directly (8 seats are reserved: 5 women, one each of religious leader, technocrat and not resident Kashmiri).
In the last three years, it has had three Prime Ministers. In the July 2021 elections, Imran Khan’s PTI won 32 seats, PPP got 14 and PML-N seven. Abdul Qayyum Niazi was elected the Prime Minister but could not retain the berth beyond nine months. Sardar Tanveer Ilyas replaced him in April 2022. A flamboyant Ilyas had criticised the judiciary during a public gathering and was disqualified in the subsequent contempt. Eventually, on April 20, 2023, Chaudhry Anwarul Haq succeeded him after he got total support from all parties. Now the region is ruled by a sort of “national” government.
The Energy Issues
The entire debate rests on the region’s hydroelectric scene. The region according to the open source data has a vast potential for producing energy. In 1989, the region upgraded its Hydroelectric Board into a Power Development Organisation (PDO) that has, so far, completed 24 mini and small projects with a cumulative installed capacity of 80-12 MW. Officials believe the region can tap almost 8000 MW of energy on Jehlum, Neelum and Poonch river catchments.
PDO is working on six projects including 48-0MW Jagran-II in Neelum Valley, with a cumulative capacity of 57.4 MW. Besides, the PDP intends to execute four projects in Neelum Valley with a total capacity of 145 MW of which two each will be funded by the Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development (KFAED) and the Saudi Fund for Development (SFD). The agreement, however, is yet to be signed.
The PDO, however, is not the only agency that attempts to harvest the vast hydel potential of the region.
For implementing power projects above 50 MW, the region set up a Private Power Cell in 1996. So far, it has been able to implement five projects totalling 1055.48 MW. These include Star Hydro owned 147-MW Patrind in Muzaffarabad; Mira Power (a subsidiary of Korean company KOSEP)-run 100.98-MW Gulpur in Kotli; China Three Gorges owned CPEC project 720-MW Karot and Laraib Energy owned 84-MW New Bong Escape in Mirpur. There are eight more projects with a cumulative capacity of 3130.93 MW, which are currently under implementation in the region. Five more with 305-MW have been given but work is yet to start. Some of these projects are owned by the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) some by the local government and a few are JV but all have been given on a BOOT (built, operate, own and return) basis.
Then there is a WAPDA, the big daddy of hydro energy in Pakistan. It owns the Mangla Dam run 1070-MW Power Project, which depopulated most of Mirpur in the 1960s and pushed populations to the UK where they live in Birmingham. The 969 MW Neelum-Jhelum project in Neelum Valley has been operational since 2018 and is also owned by WAPDA. The Authority is currently up-rating the Mangla project.
This essentially means that 3174-MW of hydropower is being generated in the region. The region has barely a population of 40 lakh, the residents are seeking concessional power tariffs. They have not paid their power bills and the outstanding is said to be at around Rs 400 crore. Now they are on a war path to prevent their “economic exploitation”.
It remains to be seen how the tide turns around.
(Note: The rupee mentioned in this report is the Pakistani rupee, which currently values barely one-third of the Indian rupee.)
