SRINAGAR: Jammu and Kashmir may experience a relatively mild and dry winter this year under the influence of El Niño, although one or two significant snowfall spells during the peak winter period remain possible, Director of the Meteorological Department Srinagar Mukhtar Ahmad said.
Responding to claims circulating on social media that winter may not occur in India this year, Ahmad dismissed them as unscientific, saying winter would occur but its intensity could vary.
He said recent winters had generally been relatively mild compared with periods of more severe winter conditions.
Ahmad said indications from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) suggested that the latter part of 2026 and early 2027, particularly the peak winter months, could be warmer and drier due to the El Niño effect.
However, he cautioned that it was too early to make a definite seasonal forecast, as weather patterns remain dynamic and can change with relatively small shifts in atmospheric conditions.
He said one or two good snowfall spells during peak winter could be beneficial if the region receives adequate moisture or is affected by a strong Western Disturbance.
Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed a similar pattern in recent years, Ahmad said, with prolonged dry periods followed by one or two snowfall spells that were generally weaker than expected.
The region is currently experiencing frequent but weak Western Disturbances, which tend to arrive every third or fourth day but have produced little significant weather activity so far, he said.
In the higher reaches of North Kashmir, these systems may result in light snowfall or cloudy conditions, but no major weather activity has occurred, Ahmad added.
He said a stronger Western Disturbance during the beginning or peak of winter would be important for Jammu and Kashmir.
Ahmad also attributed changes in snowfall patterns across the Himalayan region to climate change and rising temperatures, which he said were influencing the form and timing of precipitation.
Kashmir has not received consistent snowfall during the peak winter period over the past four to five years, resulting in shorter periods of snow cover and longer dry spells, he said.
Timely snowfall is particularly important for Jammu and Kashmir and other Himalayan regions, including Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, Ahmad said, noting that it is as significant as summer rainfall for the region.
Snow received during peak winter tends to remain on the ground for longer because of lower temperatures and can contribute to glacier recharge. Snowfall in February and March can also be useful, but warmer conditions can cause it to melt more quickly.
Ahmad said the overall precipitation situation in Jammu and Kashmir was currently close to normal, despite significant differences between individual months.
July recorded 35 per cent excess rainfall, while the early monsoon period also caused considerable losses, he said. August, meanwhile, recorded around 25 per cent below-normal rainfall, despite receiving some spells during the month.
Overall, the seasonal precipitation situation remains nearly normal, Ahmad said.
He also rejected claims that February or winter itself would be absent this year, saying such conclusions could not be drawn from seasonal forecasts.
According to Ahmad, Jammu and Kashmir can still expect rain and snowfall, although the overall winter may be milder than normal.
