SRINAGAR: Rising temperatures and increasingly erratic weather are putting Jammu and Kashmir’s major fruit economies under growing pressure. Apple yields in Kashmir are declining sharply, with summer warming and mango arrivals in Jammu falling substantially after recent heatwaves and hailstorms.
A study, published in the International Journal of Creative and Open Research in Engineering and Management, examined climate change-related agricultural losses in Jammu and Kashmir, focusing on the region’s apple and mango economies. It found that apple yields in Kashmir decline by about 6.10 per cent for every 1-degree Celsius rise in summer temperature.
The impact was significantly higher in Baramulla district, where the study estimated a 19.16 per cent decline in apple yield for every 1-degree Celsius increase in summer temperature.
The findings indicate that rising temperatures are posing a growing threat to one of Kashmir’s most important horticultural sectors, with changes in temperature and weather conditions affecting crop productivity and quality.
The study also documented substantial losses caused by recurrent hailstorms during 2025 and 2026.
It said hailstorms destroyed between 50 and 90 per cent of apple crops in several districts, resulting in estimated economic losses of Rs 6,000 crore to Rs 7,000 crore.
In Jammu, meanwhile, the mango economy suffered a major setback in 2026 following early heatwaves and hailstorms, with local mango arrivals declining by more than 70 per cent, according to the study.
The researchers said the contrasting impacts on apples and mangoes illustrate the vulnerability of both the Himalayan and subtropical agricultural systems of the Union Territory to changing climatic conditions.
The study also examined saffron production in Kashmir and found that output had fallen from 15.9 metric tonnes in 1990 to 2.6 metric tonnes in 2024-25, a decline of about 68 per cent over the period.
It attributed the broader agricultural risks to rising temperatures, heat extremes, drought, hailstorms and other forms of climate variability.
The researchers said existing crop insurance mechanisms were inadequate to fully protect farmers from climate-related losses and called for stronger financial safety nets and climate-resilient agricultural practices.
They recommended the adoption of heat-tolerant crop varieties, precision irrigation, improved weather monitoring and early-warning systems to help farmers respond to extreme weather.
The paper also called for greater investment in climate adaptation and stronger institutional support for farmers facing increasingly unpredictable growing conditions.
The researchers said protecting horticulture would be important not only for agricultural incomes but also for the wider rural economy of Jammu and Kashmir, where fruit cultivation supports a large number of farming households. (KNO)
