by Syed Shadab Ali Gillani
SRINAGAR: Economist Haseeb Drabu sees the 2024 assembly elections as having two visible outcomes, first, the voters had a key motive for participation which resulted in a good turnout. Second, the mandate was seriously divided on regional and religious lines. This was despite the gerrymandering during the delimitation that was aimed at managing support from Chenab Valley for the ruling BJP.
“There was a motive for participation this time,” Drabu noted, highlighting the electorate’s desire to reclaim representation in a significantly altered governance framework. The voter turnout reflected a populace eager to assert its democratic rights, demonstrating both resilience and an evolving perspective on political engagement.
Drabu, the last finance minister of Jammu and Kashmir State, indicated a substantial increase in public participation between Lok Sabha and assembly elections, stating that while historically, voter turnout in Jammu and Kashmir has fluctuated, this time a greater number of citizens felt compelled to assert their democratic rights.
Jammu and Kashmir, it may be recalled, has entered a new chapter in its political history, marked by the establishment of an elected government after a six-year hiatus. This significant event comes against the backdrop of sweeping changes in the region’s governance structure, catalysed by the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A in August 2019, which revoked its special status. The last elections have not only energised the electorate but also spurred deeper discussions about the region’s political and developmental future.
Since the revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy, the political landscape has undergone a seismic shift. The region has seen a long pause in elections, reminiscent of the turbulent 1990s.
Yet, as Dr Haseeb Drabu, a noted economist and former finance minister of Jammu and Kashmir, observed, this year’s elections marked a renewed enthusiasm for democratic participation.
One of the most debated aspects of the electoral process was the delimitation exercise carried out under the Reorganisation Act of 2019. This redrawing of electoral boundaries, the first in India amidst a nationwide freeze on delimitation until 2026, has elicited both approval and dissent.
Drabu described the process as constitutionally necessary but acknowledged its contentious nature. Critics viewed the exercise as an attempt to gerrymander constituencies, particularly in regions like Chenab Valley. However, Drabu noted that the overall demographic impact would remain contained, even as the changes introduced a competitive dynamic to Jammu and Kashmir’s electoral arena.
The reshaped constituencies in the valley did not help the new political startups which there were designed for. All of them, including older parties like PDP and OC were decimated in the elections. They have no mandate of the people.
This development suggests a potential shift in voter allegiances, challenging the dominance of some older and newer entrenched political entities.
The assembly elections revealed a polarised mandate, with the National Conference securing 42 seats as the dominant force. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) retained a stronghold in the Jammu region, underscoring a regional and religious divide in voting patterns.
“It is undeniable that polarisation has occurred along regional and religious lines,” Drabu remarked, reflecting on the duality of the results. Despite the challenges posed by such divisions, he emphasised that the establishment of a democratically elected government, even in a Union Territory framework, bridges the gap between governance and the people more effectively than federal administration.
The transition from a state to a Union Territory has redefined governance in Jammu and Kashmir, imposing certain limitations while opening avenues for strategic reform. Drabu pointed out that while constitutional constraints exist, the government has ample scope to drive developmental initiatives.
He cautioned against unsustainable populist measures, advocating instead for policies that promote employability and skill development in sectors like horticulture. With unemployment rates among the highest in the nation, strategic investments in job creation are critical to addressing public discontent and fostering economic growth.
As the new government crawling to make an impact, almost 50 days after taking over, debates surrounding the potential reinstatement of Article 370 have re-emerged. Drabu defended the National Conference’s resolution on the matter, warning against rhetoric that undermines the democratic mandate.
“Subverting the mandate is a dangerous game,” he stated, urging political parties to prioritise dialogue and cooperation over divisive tactics. He emphasised that mutual respect among stakeholders is essential for ensuring peace, stability, and progress in the region.
The political trajectory of Jammu and Kashmir stands at a pivotal crossroads. The recent elections signify a renewed commitment to grassroots representation, offering hope for a future rooted in democracy, accountability, and inclusive development. Amid historical complexities and heightened expectations, the region’s journey ahead will demand collaborative governance and a shared vision for prosperity.
