India’s Environment & Forests Ministry released a report that provides an assessment of impact of climate change in 2030s on four key sectors of the Indian economy – Agriculture, Water, Natural Ecosystems & Biodiversity and Health in four climate sensitive regions of India – the Himalayan region, the Western Ghats, the Coastal
Area and the North-East Region. It was prepared by the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA), a network-based programme that brings together over 120 institutions and over 220 scientists in India to undertake scientific assessments of different aspects of climate change. J&K along with the states of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Meghalaya completely and two Assam and West Bengal partially form one climate sensitive group.
Here follow the major forecasting on the issues that the INCCA studied in this belt:
(A) Temperatures: The annual temperature is projected to increase from 0.9±0.6oC to 2.6±0.7oC in the 2030s. The net increase in temperature ranges from 1.7oC to 2.2oC with respect to the 1970s. Seasonal air temperatures also show a rise in all seasons.
(B) Precipitation: The annual rainfall in the Himalayan region is likely to vary between 1268±225.2 and 1604±175.2 mm in 2030s. The projected precipitation is likely to increase by 5% to 13% in 2030s with respect to 1970s.
(C) Extreme temperatures: In this region, minimum temperatures are projected to rise by 1oC to 4.5oC, and the maximum temperatures may rise by 0.5oC to 2.5oC.
(D) Extreme precipitation: The number of rainy days in the Himalayan region in 2030s may increase by 5-10 days on an average, with an increase by more than 15 days in the eastern part of the J&K region. The intensity of rain fall is likely to increase by 1-2mm/ day.
(E) Productivity: Apple production in the Himachal region has decreased between 1982 and 2005 as the increase in maximum temperature has led to a reduction in total chilling hours in the region—a decline of more than 9.1 units per year in last 23 years has taken place. This reduction was more during the months of November and February. With increasing temperatures, it is anticipated that there may be an all-round decrease in apple production in the Himalayan region, and the line of production may shift to higher altitudes.
(F) Forests: Of the 98 IBIS (Integrated Biosphere Simulator is a dynamic vegetation model designed to explicitly link land surface and hydrological processes, terrestrial biogeochemical cycles, and vegetation dynamics within a single physically consistent framework) grids covering this region, 56% of the grids are projected to undergo change in the 2030s. The net primary productivity (NPP) is projected to increase in the region by about 57% on an average by the 2030s.
(G) Human Health: The increase in temperatures may lead to increasing morbidity due to heat stress. Flash floods due to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) may lead to large scale landslides and affect food security and hence nutritional health. Projections of malaria transmission windows for the 2030s, based on temperature, reveal the introduction of new foci in J&K and an increase in the opening of more transmission months in districts of the Himalayan region and northeastern states. The transmission windows in J&K, however, still remain open only for 0–2 months in the 2030s.
(H) Water Resources: The water yield in the Himalayan region, mainly covered by the river Indus, is likely to increase by 5%–20% in most of the areas, with some areas of J&K and Uttarakhand showing an increase of up to 50% with respect to the 1970s. The impact of increase in precipitation in this region has been reflected in an almost similar pattern of increase in the ET (evapotranspiration). Increase in the water yield is more for those areas that have experienced a low increase in ET.
