SRINAGAR: Unusually warm weather, inadequate rainfall and a largely snowless winter have raised fears of another poor saffron harvest in Kashmir, threatening the livelihoods of thousands of farming families and potentially pushing up prices of the prized spice in international markets.
In Pampore, Kashmir’s principal saffron-growing belt, many fields that would normally be carpeted with purple flowers by late October remain largely bare, leaving farmers uncertain about the extent of the damage to this year’s crop. The weak flowering has heightened concerns over supplies of the region’s distinctive, high-aroma saffron, while international market assessments point to firm prices amid expectations of tighter availability.
Kashmir normally produces around 13–14 tonnes of saffron annually, supporting an estimated 20,000–25,000 farming families. A substantial decline in output could affect both farm incomes and the availability of Kashmiri saffron in domestic and overseas markets.
Farmers attribute the poor flowering to an almost snowless winter followed by a prolonged dry spell from September through the first two weeks of October. They say the lack of soil moisture, coupled with unusually high temperatures during a critical stage of the crop’s development, has disrupted flowering.
On October 4, Srinagar recorded a maximum temperature of 31.2 degrees Celsius, the second-highest October temperature recorded since 1935.
Saffron cultivation depends on a delicate combination of temperature and moisture. Winter snowfall replenishes soil moisture, while cold conditions help meet the crop’s chilling requirements and support seasonal development and corm growth. Irregular precipitation and temperature fluctuations can affect flowering and ultimately reduce yields.
Although recent showers have provided some relief, their impact may not be sufficient to compensate for the prolonged dryness. The remaining flowering period will be critical in determining how much of the crop survives.
Some farmers, however, have reported better results where irrigation was available. Ali Mohammad, who irrigated his field several times after digging a well, said flowers had begun emerging and the yield from his plot was encouraging.
The contrasting experiences underline the importance of water availability in a season when natural moisture has been inadequate.
The government introduced a drip irrigation system in 2010 under the Rs 412-crore National Saffron Mission to help address prolonged dry spells. However, the initiative did not achieve its full potential.
The current season has once again highlighted the vulnerability of saffron cultivation to changing weather patterns and the need for reliable irrigation facilities in the region’s traditional growing areas.
The latest concerns follow a subdued harvest last year, when farmers reportedly obtained only 5–10 per cent of a normal crop in some accounts. If this season also records a significant shortfall, growers could face another year of reduced earnings.
The eventual impact will depend on whether temperatures moderate and sufficient moisture becomes available during the remaining flowering and harvesting period. Farmers say the next few days will be crucial in establishing the extent of the damage.
A smaller harvest would also have implications beyond Kashmir. The region’s saffron commands a premium because of its distinctive aroma and quality, making its availability important to specialised food, beverage and other high-value applications.
International market assessments indicate that the risk of lower production in Kashmir is reinforcing an already firm price trend for premium saffron. Buyers facing uncertainty over supplies from the Himalayan region may turn increasingly to Iran, the world’s major saffron-producing country.
Indicative export quotations from Tehran for premium grades have recorded modest increases. Premium Sargol saffron was quoted at 1,134 euros, compared with 1,117 euros previously, while premium Pushal rose to 1,071 euros from 1,054 euros. Premium saffron sold in bunches increased to 968 euros from 957 euros.
The quotations, reported on a free-on-board (FOB) Tehran basis, reflect export prices before international freight and other destination-related costs. The market assessment did not specify the quantity unit for the quoted prices.
The gradual increases suggest that traders are factoring in the possibility of tighter supplies, although the eventual movement in prices will depend on the actual size of Kashmir’s harvest and the availability of saffron from Iran and other producing regions.
Demand from the foodservice and packaged-food industries, as well as pharmaceutical and nutraceutical applications, has remained broadly steady, according to the market assessment. However, sustained price increases could encourage some buyers to adjust product formulations or shift towards lower grades.
For Kashmir, the consequences of a poor harvest would be twofold: reduced earnings for growers and a possible loss of supply in a premium segment where the region’s saffron has an established reputation.
With the flowering season nearing its critical stage, farmers are hoping that cooler weather and adequate moisture will still improve the crop. Until the harvest provides a clearer picture, uncertainty over Kashmir’s saffron output is likely to remain a factor shaping both growers’ prospects and international market sentiment.
