SRINAGAR: Pension expenditure in Jammu and Kashmir is projected to cross Rs 12,000 crore annually by 2031-32, with the government indicating that the pension burden is likely to continue rising until the early 2040s before stabilising.
The government informed the Legislative Assembly that it is currently paying pensions to approximately 2.48 lakh retired government employees.
Over the last five years, pension outgo has shown a steady upward trend. The expenditure stood at Rs 5,829 crore in 2020-21, rising to Rs 6,668 crore in 2021-22 and Rs 7,463 crore in 2022-23. It further increased to Rs 8,364 crore in 2023-24 and Rs 9,350 crore in 2024-25. In the current financial year 2025-26, the pension outgo is estimated at Rs 9,127 crore so far.
Based on the projected number of retirements, the government has estimated that pension expenditure will reach Rs 10,171 crore in 2026-27 and Rs 10,609 crore in 2027-28. The outgo is expected to climb to Rs 11,013 crore in 2028-29, Rs 11,401 crore in 2029-30 and Rs 11,798 crore in 2030-31. By 2031-32, the annual pension bill is projected to touch Rs 12,154 crore.
The government stated that the expansion in pension commitments may continue up to the early 2040s, by which time a substantial portion of employees covered under the Old Pension Scheme (OPS) would have retired. After that, the pension burden is expected to stabilise at what it described as an optimum level.
It said that the introduction of the New Pension System (NPS) in 2010, in line with the national trend, was aimed at creating a sustainable pension framework with effective pension fund management. Unlike OPS, which is a defined benefit system without a dedicated pension fund, NPS operates as a defined contribution system with structured fund management.
The government added that while it remains committed to paying pensions to all eligible beneficiaries under OPS, it ensures that pension liabilities do not adversely affect developmental expenditure. It indicated that once pension outgo stabilises in the next decade and a half, proportionately higher allocations would be available for the developmental sector.
