by Asad Mirza
The recent SCO Summit in Tianjin offered India a timely chance to recalibrate its ties with China and encouraged Russia to revive the old Russia, India and China (RIC) forum. RIC could emerge as a potential defence against the United States’ tariff policies by fostering deeper trilateral cooperation and trade.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s gathering in Tianjin became a stage where older disputes were set aside and new alliances considered. Much of this shift owed to the theatrics of one man, the United States president, Donald Trump.
Although the summit was officially focused on bilateral and multilateral issues, the most significant outcome lay in the meetings between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the host, Chinese President Xi Jinping. The warmth between the three leaders went beyond optics. Modi received noticeably special treatment compared with his Pakistani counterpart, a contrast that did not go unnoticed.
Trump and the Tariff Storm
Modi’s presence in Tianjin came days after Washington doubled tariffs on Indian exports to 50 per cent, citing New Delhi’s refusal to halt Russian oil imports. This decision followed closely after a federal appeals court limited the president’s authority to impose sweeping tariffs.
Trump defended his policies on 31 August in a post on Truth Social, declaring tariffs vital for America’s economic and military security. “Without tariffs, and all of the trillions of dollars we have already taken in, our country would be destroyed, and our military power would be instantly obliterated,” he wrote.
The statement followed a ruling by the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, which decided by seven votes to four that Trump had overstepped his powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act when imposing broad tariffs on nearly every country. The court, however, upheld certain targeted protectionist measures.
Before Tianjin, analysts were watching closely for signs of breakthroughs in relations among India, China and Russia. Leaders had hinted at extending the scope of BRICS, pressing for multilateralism and exploring ways to move beyond the US dollar as the global currency.
Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, sharpened the rhetoric, accusing India on X of becoming “an oil money laundromat for the Kremlin.”
India has consistently defended its Russian oil purchases, arguing that they are vital to keep energy affordable in its vast developing economy, stabilise global prices and remain within international law. Modi has attempted to maintain a careful balance on the Ukraine war, refusing to criticise Moscow directly while calling for peace.
The Economic Blow
The impact of the tariffs is heavy. The United States is India’s largest export market, worth 86.5bn dollars a year. Two-thirds of this, about $60.2bn, is now subject to new duties. Labour-intensive sectors, including textiles and jewellery, are among the hardest hit.
Even before the tariff hike, India had been cautiously exploring China as a source of investment and technology, hoping to boost trade. Relations had been frozen since the deadly Himalayan border clash in 2020, but they began to thaw when Modi and Xi met in person for the first time in four years at a BRICS summit in Russia last October. Yet Modi also had to weigh his country’s rift with America and its possible responses.
Within months, Trump had managed to affront India twice: first by appearing to side with Pakistan, an old rival, and then by slapping India’s exports with punishing tariffs. This strain has compelled New Delhi to reconsider its strategic direction.
Shifts with China
Talks between India and China are moving towards economic matters. Since the 2020 clashes, India has blocked much Chinese investment and refused visas to Chinese executives, yet imports from China have continued to rise.
Last year, India imported 114bn dollars worth of goods from its northern neighbour, 75 per cent more than five years earlier. Exports in the other direction amounted to only \$14bn. Many of the imports are critical components for the Indian industry.
Investment and technical know-how from China could strengthen the Indian industry and help develop an advanced manufacturing sector, reducing dependence on imports. The Indian government recognises this but has been reluctant to ease restrictions while trade talks with Washington were ongoing. With those discussions now stalled, a more flexible approach towards China may be reconsidered.
Another possible response to Trump’s tariffs is for India to accelerate long-delayed reforms at home, equipping it better to withstand external pressures.
Return of the RIC
As India and China show signs of rapprochement, and given their close relations with Russia, the revival of the RIC troika appears possible.
The idea was first proposed by Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov in the 1990s, at a time when Russia was seeking a new global role after the collapse of the Soviet Union. By the early 2000s, it was institutionalised and has since held about 20 ministerial consultations.
The concept was straightforward: Russia, India and China should form a strategic triangle to counter Western dominance. Initially, both India and China kept their distance due to their differences. Even so, the three foreign ministers held a trilateral meeting in September 2003 on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
In the 1990s, India was opening its economy and pursuing better relations with the West, particularly the United States. After the 1998 Pokhran-II nuclear tests, which China strongly condemned, India remained sceptical of RIC. China, too, avoided committing itself, but Trump’s trade wars have prompted Beijing to take a fresh interest. Notably, China has openly backed India after Washington imposed 50 per cent tariffs on its Russian oil imports.
Russia has long pushed for RIC’s revival. Earlier this year, Moscow described India and China as important partners, alongside their status as BRICS founders.
Together, Russia, India and China account for 53.9 trillion dollars in global GDP (PPP), around one third of total world output. Their combined exports exceed $5 trillion, with foreign reserves of 4.7 trillion dollars. They are all nuclear powers, consistently advocate a multipolar world, and oppose unilateralism. Their combined military expenditure stands at 549bn dollars, and they consume 35 per cent of global energy.
Although experts caution that it is premature to suggest RIC could reshape the global order, the Tianjin summit has given Modi a chance to enhance India’s diplomatic standing.
(The writer is a New Delhi-based senior commentator on national, international, defence and strategic affairs, environmental issues, an interfaith practitioner, and a media consultant. Ideas are personal.)
