by Navaid Runyal
From the April Pahalgam attack to the September floods, 2025 has been one of the harshest years in recent memory for Jammu and Kashmir’s economy. Tourism collapsed, floods wreaked havoc, horticulture was crippled, and the highway failed again. The scars will take years to heal.
2025 has turned into a nightmare for Jammu and Kashmir’s economy. What began as a security shock in spring unfolded into a series of natural disasters through summer and autumn. From the collapse of tourism to the devastation of horticulture, the region has faced one setback after another, each multiplying the pain of the previous blow.
This has not only drained incomes but also shaken the confidence of people who depend on seasonal earnings. The year stands as a reminder of how vulnerable the economy remains, fragile, reliant on a few sectors, and highly exposed to climate shocks.
Tourism, which contributes around 7 to 8 per cent to the GDP of the Union Territory and supports lakhs of livelihoods, collapsed after the Pahalgam attack in April 2025.
The timing was brutal. Spring usually marks the start of Kashmir’s tourist season. Hotels, taxis, and houseboats were prepared for what promised to be a successful year. Within days, however, bookings were cancelled, flights were empty, and major destinations saw deserted streets.
Small hoteliers who had expanded with bank loans were the first to panic. Taxi drivers, pony owners, and handicraft sellers all saw their incomes vanish overnight. “We prepared for guests, but only silence visited us,” said a Srinagar houseboat owner.
Even as tourism reeled, August brought severe floods to Jammu. Officials admitted that in several districts the scale was “worse than 2014.”
Rivers overflowed, villages were submerged, and bridges collapsed. Shops in low-lying towns lost entire stocks. Farmers saw paddy and maize fields swallowed by muddy waters. For those already struggling after years of modest growth, this disaster meant starting from scratch once again.
Rehabilitation costs are projected to run into thousands of crores, but the human toll of displacement, trauma, and shattered livelihoods cannot be measured in figures alone.
Before Jammu could recover, September brought fresh floods to both Jammu and Kashmir. In the Valley, the destruction was particularly cruel, striking its economic backbone, horticulture.
Apple orchards, which employ nearly 3.5 million people directly and indirectly, were hit by persistent cloudy and moist weather. This caused premature fruit drop, cutting both the quantity and the quality of the harvest.
The Jammu–Srinagar Highway, already battered by floods, became a barrier of its own. Trucks carrying apples were stranded, and by the time the produce reached Delhi or Mumbai, it had lost freshness and value. Prices collapsed, and growers who had borrowed heavily were left with crushing debts.
The crises of 2025 were not isolated but overlapped, creating a compounded impact. The collapse of tourism wiped out service jobs and led to defaults on loans. Floods in August and September destroyed homes, shops, and fields. The horticulture crisis shrank rural incomes and reduced spending power. Highway damage disrupted supply chains for both essentials and exports.
The result was a cascading effect that spread across sectors, leaving no section of society untouched.
The back-to-back setbacks of 2025 raise urgent questions about preparedness. Why do floods still paralyse the highway after decades of promises? Why do apple growers lack effective insurance against climate shocks? Why is tourism still vulnerable to a single incident of violence?
Economists argue that Jammu and Kashmir’s economy is too narrowly based on tourism and horticulture. “We need diversification investment in small industries, IT, renewable energy, and agro-processing,” said a Srinagar-based economist.
At the same time, disaster management must shift from relief to resilience. That requires climate-resilient infrastructure, flood forecasting systems, and reliable compensation schemes for farmers and small businesses.
Beyond figures and policies, the year 2025 has once again revealed the resilience of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. Communities rushed to help flood victims, volunteers worked tirelessly in rescue missions, and families supported each other despite distress.
A farmer in Shopian, standing in his ruined orchard, put it simply: “The fruit is gone, the money is gone, but the trees will bear again. We must wait for another spring.”
From the April Pahalgam attack to the September floods, 2025 has been one of the harshest years in recent memory for Jammu and Kashmir’s economy. Tourism collapsed, floods wreaked havoc, horticulture was crippled, and the highway failed again. The scars will take years to heal.
Yet hope remains. This land has endured darker nights and risen again. With stronger policies, greater resilience, and the unbreakable spirit of its people, Jammu and Kashmir can recover.
The year 2025 has wounded the region deeply, shaking its economy and breaking the hearts of those who built their lives around orchards, shops, and tourist seasons. Yet in this storm of despair, the spirit of its people refuses to surrender. From the mountains to the valleys, there is quiet faith that orchards will bloom again, that roads will reopen, and that tourists will return. After every night comes a dawn, and Jammu and Kashmir will rise again, stronger, brighter, and more united than before. In that rise, the people of Pogal Paristan too will stand tall, their courage and resilience lighting the way forward.
(The author is a geotechnical engineer from Marnal Maligam Pogal (Ramban), Jammu and Kashmir. Ideas are personal.)
