J&K’s Growth Story

   

I have laid the Economic Survey Report on the Table of this August House a few days back. It may be noted with satisfaction that our Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) has been continuously on the rise. In terms of the latest available figures, the GSDP of our State for the year 2008-09 was Rs 42,315 crore at current prices. It rose to Rs 48,197 crore during the year 2009-10.

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During the year 2010-11, the GSDP further rose to Rs 54,731 crore. The current year’s Advance Estimate has projected the GSDP figure at Rs 62,365 crore. All these figures are based on the revised parameters of the Central Statistical Office (CSO), adopted by it at the national level. At constant prices (base 2004-05), the corresponding GSDP figures work out at Rs 34,664 crore for the year 2008-09, Rs 36, 329 crore for the year 2009-10, Rs 38,739 crore for the year 2010-11 and ? 41, 367 crore for the current financial year.

The Thirteenth Finance Commission had given us a target of achieving fiscal deficit of 5.3% for the year 2010-11. On the basis of our GSDP figures, the actual fiscal deficit for the last year comes to 4.3%. This is a considerable improvement over the target assigned to us.

The hon’ble members of this August House are already aware of yet another wave of global meltdown, which showed itself during the current financial year causing unprecedented fall in the value of our rupee in comparison to all major world currencies. Industrial production and exports at the national level have also slowed down. These onslaughts on our national economy are bound to reduce the national GDP growth rate. The current year’s Union Budget had assumed a growth rate of 8.5%. This figure is now estimated to come down to 6.9%, as per the latest reports. In comparison, the growth rate of our GSDP at constant prices for the current financial year works out at 6.8% in comparison to 6.6%, estimated in last March at the time of the presentation of the current year’s Budget by me before this August House. In an environment full of global uncertainties, it is hazardous to forecast economic growth rate. Nevertheless, in consideration of all relevant factors, I am venturing to peg my next year’s target of GSDP growth at 7.5%.

At current prices, our per capita income figures were Rs 30,212 for the year 2008-09, Rs 33,665 for the year 2009-10, Rs 37,496 for the year 2010-11 and are estimated at Rs 41,833 for the current financial year. The per capita income figure for our State at constant prices (base 2004-05) rose to Rs 26, 344 in the year 2009-10 in comparison to Rs 25,641 for the previous year. The per capita income further grew to Rs 27,607 during the year 2010-11. The Advance Estimate places this figure at Rs 28,932 for the current financial year.

The figures mentioned by me do reflect a steady growth in the per capita income of our people. However, as stated by me before this August House last year also, we continue to lag far behind the All India Per Capita Income figure of Rs 38,005 for the current financial year. It is evident that a lot more must be done by us in the shortest possible time to catch up with the All India figures.

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