SRINAGAR: After suffering through one of the most intense heatwaves in its recorded history, Jammu and Kashmir is set for a spell of relief, as fresh rains and cooler temperatures are forecast over the next 48 hours. The India Meteorological Department has attributed the upcoming change to an active Western Disturbance interacting with monsoon winds, raising hopes for a much-needed break from the region’s dry and sweltering summer.
Forecasters have warned of intense rainfall, gusty winds, and even cloudbursts in a few isolated locations, particularly in hilly terrain. The possibility of hailstorms cannot be ruled out either. “This is a welcome change, but there is some risk involved. Authorities should be prepared for flash flooding in vulnerable zones,” said Faizan Arif, a local weather analyst with Kashmir Weather.
This turn in weather follows an extraordinary temperature surge across the Valley. On July 5, Kashmir recorded its highest day temperature in over seven decades, with Pahalgam touching an unprecedented 31.1°C, the hottest day in the hill station’s history. Srinagar, too, recorded 37.4°C, its third-highest temperature ever, trailing only the 1953 and 1946 records.
Experts say the record-breaking heat is a symptom of a deeper crisis: Kashmir’s rapidly changing climate.
Kashmir has long been known for its cool summers and snowy winters, offering natural insulation from the extreme weather seen elsewhere in the Indian subcontinent. But in recent years, this balance has begun to falter. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has confirmed that the Himalayan region is warming almost twice as fast as the global average. The consequences are stark.
Mukhtar Ahmad, Director of the Meteorological Centre in Srinagar, explains, “Global warming and prolonged dry spells have amplified the heating. The weakening of Western Disturbances and disappearing snow cover are changing the weather dynamics.” June 2025 was nearly 3°C warmer than average in parts of the Valley. Qazigund, for instance, posted its hottest June in over 50 years.
This warming has far-reaching consequences. The Kolahoi glacier, a crucial water source, has shrunk by over 23 per cent since 1962, according to a 2024 study published in The Cryosphere. The Nun-Kun glacier group has lost 4.5 per cent of its mass between 2000 and 2020.
Human activity is accelerating the crisis. Unregulated urbanisation and deforestation have created heat islands in cities like Srinagar and Baramulla. A 2024 report by the Directorate of Environment, Ecology, and Remote Sensing found that nearly 35 per cent of water bodies around Srinagar have vanished since 1911. These wetlands once helped moderate temperatures and recharge groundwater.
Meanwhile, the Jhelum River is now running 30 per cent below its usual volume, pushing the region close to drought-like conditions. This has hit agriculture, the backbone of Kashmir’s economy, especially hard.
With the spike in temperature and prolonged dry spells, Kashmir’s apple, paddy, and saffron crops are all under stress. “Temperatures above 25°C alter hormonal balance in apple trees, leading to poor fruit quality,” said Tasneem Mubarak of SKUAST. Farmers report massive losses, compounded by water scarcity and increased pest activity.
Public health is also under strain. The State Disaster Management Authority reports a 120 per cent rise in heat-related illnesses over the last five years. Hospitals have seen a surge in dehydration, heatstroke, and skin-related ailments.
The region’s tourism economy, built around the promise of cool mountain air, is beginning to feel the pinch. Visitors to once-refreshing destinations like Gulmarg and Pahalgam now find themselves stuck indoors due to oppressive heat. “We thought it would be pleasant, but it felt like Delhi in July,” said Nitin Jain, a tourist from the capital.
In response, Kashmiris are turning to a solution once unthinkable, air conditioning. Sales of air coolers and AC units have spiked by 180 per cent, and appliance dealers in Srinagar report selling more than 200 units a day. “In 50 years, we’ve never bought an air conditioner. But this summer we had no choice,” said Ghulam Mahuddin, a resident of downtown Srinagar.
To protect vulnerable populations, schools were shut for two weeks from June 23 to July 7. The government has also issued a heatwave action plan for 2024–25, although critics argue implementation on the ground remains weak.
While the rains may provide short-term relief, experts warn that they do not mark a return to normalcy. “We must treat this as a wake-up call,” said Shabir Ahmad of SKUAST. “Our water bodies are vanishing, glaciers are retreating, and agricultural output is declining. We must act now.”
