SRINAGAR: Kashmir is witnessing one of its most alarming climate shifts in recent history, with this July recording three of the hottest days ever observed in the Valley even as rivers, streams and springs are already showing signs of stress from declining water levels. A new scientific study has now established that Jammu and Kashmir has been warming steadily over the past 45 years, with the fastest rise occurring in the higher Himalayan regions where glaciers, snowfields and mountain ecosystems are most vulnerable.
The research, Warming of the High-Mountainous Climate Sensitive Jammu and Kashmir During the Period 1980–2024, was carried out by GS Gopikrishnan and Prof Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath of the Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences (CORAL), Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, along with VM Pranav Chandran of the India Meteorological Department. The paper has been accepted for publication in Scientific Reports, published by Nature Portfolio.
The findings come at a time when Kashmir is already experiencing an unusually prolonged heat spell. Meteorological observations during July have broken several temperature records, while hydrological indicators across the Valley show water discharge dropping earlier than is normally expected in the summer season.
Drawing upon 45 years of observations from ten India Meteorological Department weather stations between 1980 and 2024, the researchers found that warming is not occurring uniformly across Jammu and Kashmir. Instead, higher-altitude areas are warming more rapidly than the plains, a phenomenon scientists describe as Elevation-Dependent Warming (EDW).
According to the study, several mountain locations, including Pahalgam and Gulmarg, have warmed by nearly one degree Celsius during the past two decades alone. The researchers describe this as clear evidence of the exceptional sensitivity of the western Himalaya to climate change, with serious implications for glaciers, seasonal snow, river systems and long-term water security.
The analysis shows annual mean temperatures increasing by about 0.18 degrees Celsius for every kilometre of elevation, while winter daytime temperatures rise even faster at around 0.43 degrees Celsius per kilometre every decade. These patterns indicate that warming intensifies with altitude, particularly during winter, when snow cover traditionally helps regulate mountain temperatures.
Scientists attribute much of this accelerated warming to changes in snow cover. As snow melts earlier and remains on the ground for shorter periods, darker land surfaces become exposed, absorbing greater amounts of solar radiation and creating a self-reinforcing warming cycle. The study also identifies atmospheric moisture and long-wave radiation as important contributors to increasing night-time temperatures across the region.
Among the strongest warming signals documented are rapidly rising minimum temperatures, particularly at night. Bhaderwah recorded night-time warming of about 0.7 degrees Celsius per decade, while several other mid- and high-elevation stations, including Banihal, Batote and Pahalgam, also registered significant increases. The researchers note that warmer nights reduce opportunities for glaciers, snowpacks and mountain ecosystems to recover from daytime heat.
Although the study focuses on long-term climatic trends rather than individual weather events, its conclusions closely mirror the conditions now unfolding across Kashmir. The Valley’s unusually intense July heat has coincided with visibly reduced flows in rivers and streams despite the fact that much of the annual snowmelt season should still be contributing to water discharge.
The researchers caution that the consequences extend well beyond temperature records. Jammu and Kashmir’s rivers depend heavily on seasonal snow and glacier melt originating in the higher Himalaya. Continued warming threatens to alter the timing and quantity of water flowing downstream, affecting drinking water supplies, irrigation, hydropower generation and fragile mountain ecosystems.
The study notes that distinguishing between warming driven by altitude and warming caused by local atmospheric conditions is essential for understanding future changes in mountain hydrology and cryospheric stability. It concludes that continued warming is likely to influence future water-resource variability and glacier sensitivity across the region.
While the researchers acknowledge limitations arising from the relatively small number of long-term high-altitude weather stations, they describe the evidence as robust enough to demonstrate a clear warming trend across Jammu and Kashmir. They recommend denser monitoring networks and longer cryospheric records to improve future assessments of glacier response and mountain climate.
The publication arrives as policymakers, water managers and communities across Kashmir confront an increasingly visible reality: rising temperatures are no longer confined to long-term climate projections but are being reflected in shrinking snow cover, declining summer water availability and more frequent episodes of extreme heat. The scientific evidence presented in the study adds to growing concerns that the western Himalaya is undergoing climatic changes that could reshape the region’s hydrology and environmental stability in the decades ahead.
