SRINAGAR: The widening war in the Middle East is intensifying Afghanistan’s already fragile humanitarian and economic situation, disrupting trade routes, forcing thousands of Afghan refugees to return from Iran and straining humanitarian services across the country.
According to the United Nations, the conflict is placing additional pressure on Afghanistan’s weak economy and humanitarian system at a time when international assistance is already declining.
Briefing the United Nations Security Council, Georgette Gagnon, acting head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, warned that the war is disrupting key trade routes and raising commodity prices in the country.
She said Afghanistan’s trade corridor through Iran has become increasingly uncertain because of the ongoing conflict, while the border with Pakistan remains closed due to tensions between the two neighbours.
“The conflict in the Middle East is adding further strain and instability to Afghanistan’s already fragile economy,” Gagnon told the Council.
The economic impact comes as Afghanistan continues to face a deep humanitarian crisis. Since September 2023, the country has absorbed around 5.5 million Afghans returning from neighbouring countries, even as international funding declines and humanitarian needs continue to grow.
The United Nations says humanitarian partners plan to reach 17.5 million Afghans this year through an aid appeal worth 1.71 billion US dollars, but the programme is currently only about 10 per cent funded.
The crisis is being compounded by restrictions on women and girls and by the ban on female national staff working with the United Nations, which has hampered aid operations and reduced the ability of humanitarian agencies to reach vulnerable populations.
Meanwhile, the war has triggered a new wave of Afghan refugees attempting to leave Iran and return home. According to reporting by Deutsche Welle, thousands of Afghans living in Iran have begun moving toward border crossings such as Islam Qala amid escalating attacks and deteriorating conditions in the country.
Journalists at the border have reported exhausted families arriving after long journeys from cities across Iran. Many refugees say they fled growing insecurity and missile attacks during the conflict.
Mohammad Kabir Nazari, an Afghan worker who had been living in Tehran, told the Agence France-Presse that rocket attacks in the Iranian capital had made daily life impossible. “Every day rockets came from all sides,” he said. “There was no protection for Afghans.”
Aid agencies say the returning refugees are placing additional pressure on Afghanistan’s already strained services. The United Nations Children’s Fund warned that communities receiving returnees already face shortages of healthcare, nutrition and water services.
UNICEF’s representative in Afghanistan, Tajudeen Oyewale, said large numbers of returning families could increase the risk of malnutrition and disease, particularly among young children and pregnant women.
“Families returning will move into communities where basic services are already under pressure,” he said.
The war is also affecting global health programmes that rely on supply routes through the Middle East. The World Health Organisation said operations at its global emergency logistics hub in Dubai were suspended due to security concerns linked to the conflict.
According to WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the disruption has delayed the delivery of laboratory equipment worth 106 million US dollars needed for polio testing, threatening to slow eradication efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Regional WHO officials also warned that shipments of medical supplies and humanitarian materials are being delayed, affecting more than 50 emergency supply requests from 25 countries.
At the same time, tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan have escalated. Afghan officials and local reports say Pakistani airstrikes recently targeted residential areas in Kabul, killing four members of a family and injuring dozens of people while destroying homes and workshops.
Diplomatic uncertainty has also grown around the future of the UN mission in Afghanistan. Members of the Security Council remain divided over the extension of the mandate of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, with some countries supporting a one-year renewal and others calling for a shorter extension to review the mission’s effectiveness.
Analysts warn that the combined impact of the Middle East war, refugee flows, economic pressures and ongoing regional tensions could further destabilise Afghanistan if humanitarian and political challenges remain unresolved.
“If these issues are not dealt with,” Gagnon told the Council, “Afghanistan could again become a driver of regional and global instability in the form of out-migration, terrorism and narcotics.”
