SRINAGAR: The winter chill loosened its grip dramatically across Kashmir as Srinagar recorded its highest-ever February day temperature on February 21, 2026, with the mercury soaring to 21.0 degrees Celsius, a full 10 degrees above the seasonal average.
According to independent forecaster Faizan Arif, the previous all-time February record for Srinagar was 20.6 degrees Celsius, observed on February 24, 2016. Saturday’s reading has officially made it the warmest February day ever recorded in the city.
What has intensified concern among meteorologists is the scale of the anomaly. The temperature stood at a striking +10 degrees Celsius above normal, an extraordinary deviation for late winter in the Valley. Conditions currently resemble those typically experienced in mid-April rather than February.
The unusual warmth is not confined to Srinagar alone. Several stations across the Kashmir division reported maximum temperatures 9 to 10 degrees above normal during the past 24 hours.
Qazigund recorded a maximum of 21.0 degrees Celsius against a normal of 10.1 degrees. Pahalgam registered 16.5 degrees compared to the normal 7.5 degrees, while Kupwara settled at 19.8 degrees against 10.1 degrees normal. The ski resort of Gulmarg recorded 11.6 degrees Celsius, nearly 9.6 degrees above normal for this time of year.
In the Jammu division, Jammu recorded a maximum of 26.2 degrees Celsius against the normal 22.3 degrees. Kathua registered 26.0 degrees against 22.5 degrees normal, while Bhaderwah recorded 19.0 degrees compared to 14.2 degrees normal.
Night temperatures have also remained above average at most places. Srinagar recorded a minimum of 1.8 degrees Celsius against the normal 1.5 degrees, while Pahalgam registered minus 2.0 degrees. Jammu city recorded a minimum of 12.1 degrees Celsius, against 11.1 degrees normal.
The Meteorological Department said there is no forecast of any major rain or snowfall activity across Jammu and Kashmir till the end of February. The weather is expected to remain generally dry from February 21 to 25. Conditions are likely to turn partly to generally cloudy on February 26, with chances of light rain or snow at isolated places on February 27 and 28.
The outlook for the first week of March indicates generally cloudy weather from March 1 to 3, with light rain or snow over higher reaches at isolated to scattered places. From March 4 to 7, the weather is expected to remain partly cloudy.
The MeT office has advised farmers to continue farm operations, noting that a further rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures is likely over the next six days. No major weather warning has been issued for the coming week.
Forecasters warn that if the prevailing dry spell persists in the absence of significant Western Disturbances, additional long-standing February records may fall in other parts of Kashmir before the month concludes. February 2026 is now on track to rank among the warmest — if not the warmest — on record in the Valley.
As of this evening, temperatures in Srinagar have settled at around 12 degrees Celsius, markedly mild for a February night in the region.
The unseasonal warmth comes amid a staggering precipitation deficit of over 55 per cent during the peak winter months. The absence of significant Western Disturbances — moisture-laden systems that typically bring snow and rain to the Himalayas, has left the region dry.
The Meteorological Department has forecast generally dry weather across Jammu and Kashmir until the end of February. Conditions are expected to remain dry from February 21 to 25, turn partly to generally cloudy on February 26, and remain partly cloudy with chances of light rain or snow at isolated places on February 27 and 28.
The outlook for March 1 to 3 suggests generally cloudy weather with light rain or snow over higher reaches at isolated to scattered places, while March 4 to 7 is expected to remain partly cloudy. No major weather warning has been issued, but the department has indicated that both minimum and maximum temperatures are likely to rise further by 1–2 degrees over the next six days. Farmers have been advised to continue farm operations.
Climate experts warn that sustained high temperatures following a weak winter snowfall could have cascading ecological and economic consequences.
Prof Shakeel Ahmad Romshoo, a noted climate scientist, has said that reduced snowfall and warmer spring temperatures are accelerating early melting of seasonal snowpacks and glaciers. This disrupts the timing and availability of meltwater that sustains rivers, springs and groundwater recharge systems.
The western rivers, including the Jhelum and Chenab and their tributaries, depend heavily on accumulated snowpack. Rapid melting may cause a short-term rise in water levels, increasing flood risks, but could result in lower discharge during summer when irrigation demand peaks — raising the spectre of water stress.
Irfan Rashid of the Department of Geoinformatics at the University of Kashmir warned that extreme snow loss exposes glacier ice earlier to solar radiation, accelerating glacier thinning and long-term degradation. He also cautioned that warmer conditions may trigger permafrost thaw across the Himalayas, destabilising mountain slopes and potentially leading to mass movements.
Such extreme weather events were witnessed in 2025 in the Chisoti mountains of Kishtwar in J&K and Dharali in Uttarakhand, where floods caused large-scale devastation. In Kishtwar alone, 66 people lost their lives in weather-related floods.
For the agriculture and horticulture sectors — the backbone of Kashmir’s economy — the early warmth is a cause for anxiety. Apple cultivation, a mainstay of the Valley, depends on prolonged winter chill to meet essential chilling requirements.
Warmer winters can disrupt flowering cycles, increase pest activity and reduce yields. Farmers have reported early blooming of almond trees, a phenomenon usually seen in early March.
Tourism stakeholders are equally concerned. Gulmarg, widely known as India’s winter sports capital, is set to host the sixth edition of the Khelo India Winter Games from February 23 to 26. However, reduced snow cover and rising temperatures could shorten the winter sports season and affect visitor inflow.
Senior meteorologists have described the trend as “worrying”, noting that in the absence of a significant wet spell, the mercury could climb further.
With February 2026 already rewriting temperature records and dry conditions persisting, Kashmir appears to be experiencing what many residents describe as “April in February” — an unsettling reminder of shifting climatic patterns in the Himalayan region.
