by Basarat Bilal
It won’t be surprising after the Lok Sabha polls if the alliance won’t last long as it is the objective of the BJP to have its chief minister in Bihar which happens to be the only major state in north India where BJP never had its Chief Minister.
Ram Vilas Paswan, a notable figure in Indian politics, displayed a knack for aligning with the winning side in general elections. Notably, he maintained consistency in his choices without veering into hypocrisy. As he remarked, he exercised the freedom to select his political allies.
In contrast, Nitish Kumar is recognised for his astuteness in politics, devoid of sentimental attachments. His pragmatic approach to power politics has proven instrumental in his success. Nitish, belonging to a socialist political lineage, has affiliations with leaders such as Ram Manohar Lohia, SN Sinha, KarpuriThakur, and VP Singh. He actively participated in JP Narayan’s movement and, like Lalu Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav, and George Fernandes, emerged from the era of the emergency.
Nitish’s involvement in JP Narayan’s movement led to the formation of the first non-Congress government at the centre. However, the government’s brief tenure was marked by a downfall over the dual membership issue involving Jan Sangh leaders within the Janata government. This episode provided the opposition with a glimpse of a non-Congress administration. Nitish, who had been arrested during the emergency, secured his first electoral victory to the state assembly from Harnaut in 1985 after his release in 1977.
In 1989, Nitish Kumar secured a seat as a Lok Sabha Member. Amidst the socialist movement’s opposition to the Congress, ideological differences with the BJP led George Fernandes and Nitish Kumar to defect and establish the Samata Party in 1994. The catalyst for bringing down the Morarji Desai government was the objection to former Jan Sangh leaders simultaneously holding positions in the government and the RSS, deeming it unacceptable. George Fernandes, a key figure in the campaign against dual membership, played a pivotal role in the government’s downfall.
Subsequently, George Fernandes, the founder of theSamataParty, joined the NDA government under Atal Bihari Vajpayee, assuming the role of Defence Minister. He shaped his political narrative by vehemently opposing Congress and Sonia Gandhi’s foreign birth, albeit compromising on social politics. Over time, the SamataDal transformed, with Nitish Kumar gradually asserting himself as the pre-eminent leader of the JDU, leading to a shift in dynamics with George Fernandes.
Nitish Kumar briefly served as the Union Minister for Railways and Minister for Surface Transport and later as the Minister of Agriculture in the 1998-99 government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Notably, he resigned in August following the Gaisal train disaster, taking responsibility—a departure from the current trend, as evidenced by the incumbent Union Railways Minister Ashwini Vaishnav not resigning or assuming responsibility for the 2023 Odisha train collisions.
Nitish Kumar assumed the role of Chief Minister for the first time in 2000 at the behest of the central government, with the NDA and its allies holding 151 MLAs, compared to Lalu Prasad Yadav’s 159 MLAs in the 324-member house. Failing to prove a majority, Nitish’s tenure lasted a mere seven days. In 2005, a segment of Muslims, including marginalized communities like Pasmanda, sought new options, contending that Lalu Yadav had primarily strengthened upper-caste Muslims such as Shaikh, Sayyid, and Pathans.
Nitish Kumar, a member of the OBC Kurmi caste, constituting four per cent of Bihar’s electorate, played a pivotal role in the 2005 elections. Allying with the BJP, Nitish secured 55 seats, while the BJP won 37, falling short of the majority mark in the 243-member Assembly. The RJD had 75 seats, and the Congress had 10.
At that time, Buta Singh served as the Governor of Bihar and had a history of precipitating government collapses during his tenure as India’s Home Minister, utilizing Article 356. Under the influence of Congress, Singh aimed for a Congress-RJD-led government, but the endeavour faltered due to insufficient numbers. The intervention of President APJ Abdul Kalam, known for his rigorous scrutiny, resulted in the imposition of President’s rule, with subsequent elections held later that year.
Benefiting from the momentum he had generated and capitalizing on the anti-incumbency sentiment surrounding Lalu Yadav, Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal-United (JDU) secured 88 seats, with the BJP winning 55. Nitish thus enjoyed a comfortable majority. His tenure as Chief Minister saw effective governance that addressed longstanding issues in Bihar, dispelling the state’s Bimaru image.
Nitish Kumar’s administration left a tangible impact on Bihar’s infrastructure, evident in improved roads, buildings, and villages. Notably, initiatives such as distributing free cycles to girls attending school contributed to an increase in the number of educated young girls in Bihar, reflecting positively on his leadership.
By 2010, Nitish Kumar appeared complacent, possibly due to overconfidence or a perception that the RJD had no imminent chance of returning to power. The blueprint Nitish had established in the previous five years marginalized the opposition in Bihar’s political discourse. His confidence paid off, as the 2010 elections yielded an unprecedented victory, with JDU securing 115 seats and the BJP obtaining 91 seats. This triumph marked the highest majority a party had ever achieved in a major Indian state.
However, the subsequent five years did not live up to the expectations of Bihar’s residents. Nitish’s pace of development seemed to have slowed down, resulting in a period of relative stagnation. Until 2014, Nitish had aligned with the BJP, but this alliance fractured when Narendra Modi was named the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate. Nitish held Modi responsible for the aftermath of the Godhra riots. While he did not resign from the Atal Government, his reservations about Modi became evident in 2014 when he chose to contest the Lok Sabha elections independently. The outcome was a substantial defeat, with JDU securing only 2 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar.
In 2015, following the electoral setback, Nitish Kumar took moral responsibility and resigned as Chief Minister, appointing Jitan Ram Manjhi as his successor. However, this arrangement was short-lived, as Nitish removed Manjhi later that same year. Subsequently, Nitish chose to contest the 2015 assembly elections in alliance with the Congress and RJD. The results saw Nitish’s party, JDU, securing 71 seats, with the RJD obtaining 80 seats and the Congress 27. Nitish resumed the role of Chief Minister.
Less than two years into his term, Nitish dissolved the government, citing corruption charges against his deputy, Tejashwi Yadav. The decision was influenced by Nitish’s perceived insecurity regarding Tejashwi, who, being much younger, was building his political brand and had a significant voter base within their shared caste. Nitish, facing financial constraints in the state and harbouring concerns about Tejashwi, eventually broke the alliance and joined forces with the BJP, despite having been elected in partnership with the Mahaghatbandan.
By 2020, JDU’s electoral performance hit its lowest point, securing only 43 seats. Speculation arose that the BJP may have strategically influenced Nitish’s fortunes, with Chirag Paswan’s LJP fielding candidates against JDU, leading to a loss of twenty to thirty seats. This move, perceived as audacious, aimed to diminish JDU’s seat tally. The strategic use of Chirag Paswan’s LJP by the BJP was seen as an attempt to curtail JDU’s electoral strength and potentially destabilize the government, creating room for a potential RJD-Congress coalition.
In 2020, events unfolded that sowed the seeds of mistrust between Nitish Kumar and the BJP. Nitish, discerning a perceived dual strategy by the BJP, openly criticized his alliance partner even though he held the position of Chief Minister. He accused them of undermining his party, citing the case of RCP Singh, a close aide and favoured bureaucrat. Despite RCP Singh’s seniority in the government, Nitish restrained him from acquiring significant power.
The suspicion grew when RCP Singh was nominated to the Rajya Sabha and appointed as a Union Cabinet Minister without Nitish Kumar’s approval. Nitish became wary, perceiving an attempt by the BJP to elevate RCP Singh, also a fellow Kurmi member, potentially against him. Consequently, in 2022, Nitish dissolved the government in partnership with the BJP and allied with the RJD and Congress.
(The author is a law student at Kashmir University and writes on political matters. Ideas are personal.)
