SRINAGAR: As the US-Israeli war on Iran intensifies, global attention is turning to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a critical maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, amid growing fears of disruption to shipping and energy flows, reports appearing in the global media suggest.
On Saturday, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group confirmed firing ballistic missiles at Israel, their first such attack since the war began, claiming to target “sensitive Israeli military sites.” The announcement has sparked renewed concerns over the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb, which lie close to Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, under Houthi control.
The Houthis are a key part of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” alongside Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Their control of Sanaa, situated near the Bab al-Mandeb, amplifies fears that the strait could once again be drawn into broader regional conflict.
Known in Arabic as the “Gate of Tears,” Bab al-Mandeb lies at the southern tip of the Red Sea, separating Yemen from Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa. The strait connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, serving as a vital link to the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline. It accounts for roughly 10–12% of global oil and natural gas shipments, in addition to container and bulk cargo traffic between Asia and Europe.
Stretching 100 kilometres (62 miles) in length and narrowing to 29–30 kilometres (18–19 miles) at its tightest point, the strait funnels millions of barrels of crude oil, LNG, and containerised goods each day. Its proximity to Yemen gives the Houthis a strategic position to influence global energy flows.
The Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed for a month, shifting reliance to the Red Sea route. The Houthis previously attacked more than 100 ships in the Red Sea between November 2023 and January 2025, sinking two and severely damaging others. Following a partial ceasefire in late 2025, attacks paused, but the recent missile strike on Israel signals a possible resumption of their operations in the Bab al-Mandeb corridor.
Ahmed Nagi, senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, told AP: “If the Houthis increase attacks on commercial shipping, as they have in the past, it would further push up oil prices and destabilise all of maritime security. The impact would not be limited to the energy market.”
Farea Al-Muslimi, research fellow at Chatham House, added: “The decision by the Houthis to join the broader Middle East conflict marks a serious and deeply concerning escalation. The potential impact on key commercial maritime routes, especially in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb strait, cannot be overstated. Vital economic and military infrastructure across the Gulf region may become increasingly exposed.”
If Bab al-Mandeb were closed alongside the already disrupted Strait of Hormuz, global shipping companies would need to reroute vessels around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding 4,000–6,000 nautical miles and delays of up to 20 days. This would significantly increase freight costs, disrupt global trade, and put further pressure on oil markets already strained by the Iran war.
For India, the Red Sea route is crucial for both energy imports and exports. Nearly 80% of India’s merchandise trade with Europe passes through this corridor, including goods valued at $450 billion annually.
Saudi Arabia has relied on the Red Sea port of Yanbu and the East-West pipeline, operating at full capacity, to maintain oil exports to Asia amid disruptions elsewhere. However, renewed Houthi attacks could make this vital route too risky, adding strain to the global energy supply chain.
While Iran remains a key backer, the Houthis operate with their own strategic considerations. They have rebuilt capabilities after years of US, Israeli, and Saudi-led airstrikes, relying on tribal smuggling networks, commercial links to arms suppliers like China, and indigenous weapons manufacturing. They have previously targeted commercial and military vessels over 190 times between November 2023 and June 2024.
Despite their aggressive posture, the Houthis are likely to avoid direct attacks on Saudi oil facilities due to a 2022 truce, although pressure from Iran could alter that calculus. Analysts note the group must balance participation in the regional war with maintaining local legitimacy in a country where around half the population suffers from acute hunger.
The US and UK, along with coalition partners, have periodically targeted Houthi positions to protect shipping in the Red Sea, including the establishment of Operation Prosperity Guardian. European warships continue to receive limited protection under separate missions. Despite these efforts, shipping companies have often rerouted vessels around Africa to avoid Houthi-controlled waters, adding days to voyages and increasing fuel costs.
Bab al-Mandeb, the centuries-old “Gate of Tears,” remains a vital artery for global trade and energy. With the Houthis now entering the US-Israeli conflict, experts warn of renewed disruption that could ripple through global shipping, energy markets, and economies dependent on stable maritime corridors. The Strait’s fate has become a key barometer for regional escalation and the wider stability of global trade.
