Parvaiz Bukhari

Sitting in Kashmir it appears nothing is changing except the status quo further consolidating itself while resistance remains an under control internal dynamic, Omar Abdullah government’s onslaught on separatist leadership notwithstanding. But within the last two weeks a few developments in India, Pakistan and American outlook to the region force a view hard to ignore. While the controversy about the degree of success of India’s 1998 nuclear tests continues, Americans came out with a report highlighting Pakistan’s fast enhancing nuclear capability during the last decade. Alongside, Pakistan doled out a political autonomy package to Gilgit, a part of the erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir.
Could the three developments be connected in pursuit of some political objectives in Kashmir? It is a conjecture hard to avoid. Kashmir was high on agenda of Barak Obama during his election campaign. It remained so till Richard Holbrook’s appointment as envoy to India and Pakistan, widely acknowledged to be focused on resolving the Kashmir dispute. However, resistance from New Delhi to any American role in resolving Kashmir dissipated that perception when the envoy was forced to reiterate many times over that his assignment did not include Kashmir.
Given US-Pakistan relations, the redrawn political relationship between Gilgit and Islamabad could be an attempt to carve out a different space for American objectives vis a vis resolving Kashmir, where it has no direct interests. Coupled with nuclear deterrence worries created by Pokharan II controversy in India and Pakistan’s enhanced nuclear weapons capability as reported by American intelligence agencies, it is possible to visualize a specter for Obama administration to subtly step in. Global political commentators have firmly situated Kashmir in US administration’s Af-Pak doctrine, already underway. Remember, it was the American intervention that actually forced Pakistan to back off during the 1999 Kargil war.
Analysts believe resolving Kashmir is a part of Obama administration attempts to assuage the Muslim world. Middle-East having proven as intractable as ever for the staunchest friends of Israel to deliver a final solution there yet. Pulling out of Afghanistan, where America is stuck neck deep will tantamount to defeat while Iraq has already been one. Kashmir may not have found a mention in Obama’s famous Cairo speech but resolution of the vexed issue may be the only achievable feat for America to win some degree of acceptance in Muslim hearts and minds across the world.
The only factor that obstructs this specific view has been the Indian ‘touch me not on Kashmir issue’ approach as far as US intentions about the dispute are perceived. The perception of nuclear disparity between bitter rivals India and Pakistan, created by the US report about the latter’s non-conventional capability, could be directed at generating some nervousness in the region. This is happening at a time when Pakistan is seen as having effectively handled its problems in Swat and moved on Gilgit the way it has.
New Delhi has already placed its displeasure about Gilgit on record, and so have many pro-freedom leaders within Kashmir, albeit for entirely different reasons. But many others watching the developments in both countries closely see the new Gilgit-Islamabad political relationship as an attempt by Pakistan to invite qualitatively fresh attention over Kashmir. Is the leadership in Kashmir aware of the developments let alone a part of it at any level? No. And that should be extremely alarming for separatist leadership in Kashmir who may think they are struggling to settle the six decade old dispute.
For the people of Kashmir to avoid a forced solution at any foreseeable future date, it is of paramount importance for their leadership to start worrying about a possible political structure that could receive change in the status quo when and if one could be delivered.

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