SRINAGAR: Claims circulating on social media about the possibility of “black snow” or toxic acidic rain in Kashmir due to the ongoing tensions in the Middle East are misleading, with experts saying the likelihood of such an event under current conditions is extremely low.
According to weather analysts, the present situation in the Middle East does not involve large-scale destruction of oil infrastructure, such as the prolonged burning of oil wells or refineries, which would be necessary to release massive quantities of soot, sulphur dioxide and other pollutants capable of travelling long distances and affecting precipitation.
Historical examples show that events like the burning of hundreds of oil wells during the Gulf War produced enormous volumes of smoke and pollutants that travelled across regions. However, experts note that no comparable scenario has been reported during the current conflict.
Most incidents reported so far have involved localised military strikes or short-duration fires that were brought under control within hours. Such emissions typically disperse and dilute significantly in the atmosphere and are unlikely to travel thousands of kilometres in concentrations strong enough to influence weather patterns.
Kashmir lies roughly 1,800 to 4,000 kilometres from major Middle Eastern conflict zones. By the time smoke or aerosols from relatively small fires travel such distances, they usually mix with cleaner air masses and lose most of their intensity.
Experts say that for phenomena such as black snow or chemically significant acid rain to occur, there must be extremely large and sustained emissions of particulate matter and sulphur compounds, along with specific atmospheric circulation patterns capable of carrying those pollutants towards the Himalayan region.
Under the current circumstances, they say, the possibility of black snow or toxic rainfall occurring in Kashmir due to the ongoing Middle East conflict remains highly unlikely.
The clarification comes amid growing concern online, where several posts had suggested that pollution from the conflict could be carried by the jet stream towards the Himalayan region.
