different in terms of weather conditions.
“We have never seen such extreme weather conditions in the past,” said Mohammad Ramzan of Tarzoo-Sopore. Ramzan’s cherry orchard suffered a lot of damage because of the extended spells of rains.
Last year, says Ramzan, the cherry production was so good. “This year, I just sold 110 boxes, far less than I had sold last year (450 boxes),” he says. For growers in the fruit basket of the valley, Shopian, extended cold conditions right in the blooming season cast a gloom on their hopes of a good yield.
“We don’t have to do any hard work in our orchards this year. The worst weather this year took a heavy toll on them as our apple trees could not bloom due to constant cold conditions,” says Shahid Wani, who has a 20-acre orchard in Shopian.
For farmers who grow paddy and maize, the weather is becoming confusing with each passing year. With almost half of Kashmir’s agricultural farms dependent on rains, farmers wonder why the government is yet to step in with improved irrigation facilities to help them tide over the summer months.
“The government has constructed ponds in some areas for water harvesting, but much more has to be done to cover the entire area,” says Khazir Naikoo, a farmer in Madanpora Lolab. “Anyone can see that the droughts have become frequent and rainfall scarcer and more erratic.”
According to the study ‘Recent Trends in Meteorological Parameters over Jammu & Kashmir (1976 to 2007)’, by A K Jaswal and G S Prakasa Rao of the Indian Meteorological Department, temperatures are increasing over this state, often likened to Switzerland for its alpine charms and snow-capped mountains.
The study showed an annual increase in the maximum temperature in the Kashmir region from 0.04 to 0.05 degrees Celsius over the period and a corresponding rise in the minimum temperature in the Jammu region from 0.03 to 0.08 degrees per year. “Annual rainfall and rainy days are decreasing in both the regions of the state except at Jammu where rainfall trend is significantly increasing (12.05 mm per year),” says the study. Naikoo has vivid memories of the farmer-friendly weather in Kashmir: “It would rain for days together till our paddy fields would get a fair amount of moisture.”
Like many other farmers in north Kashmir, Naikoo is baffled at the creeping dryness. “May be God is not happy with our deeds. We are a sinful lot.” Naikoo is not yet ready to switch to less water-intensive horticulture. Fed up with frequent droughts in recent years, some farmers have switched over to horticulture by converting their paddy fields into orchards.
“I am still hopeful that God will not let us down. Things will get better.” Scientists are worried at the rapid conversion of paddy lands for horticultural use and the mushrooming of commercial establishments and residential colonies on farming lands. According to official figures, 80 percent of Kashmir’s seven million people are directly or indirectly engaged in agriculture and allied sectors. Much of Kashmir’s total area of 2.4 million hectares is mountainous or forested.
Official statistics indicate the 151,352 hectares of land that used to be under cultivation in the state, a few decades ago, has now shrunk to 46,943 hectares.
“This is a dangerous trend,” warns Zaffar Ahmad Reshi, a professor in Kashmir University’s Botany department. “The government in Kashmir has no land-use policy and has failed to provide proper irrigation facilities to the farmers.”
Reshi, while observing that the erratic weather can be attributed to changing climatic conditions, said one glaring adaptation to climate change required in Kashmir is augmentation of the irrigation network for farming. “Irrigation networks have become all the more important in the wake of climate change.”
According to the Economic Survey for 2010-11, only 41 percent of agricultural land is covered by irrigation facilities, the rest depend on rain.
Reshi stresses that Kashmir cannot afford to lose all its agricultural land to horticulture and built-up areas. “Rice is the staple food of Kashmiris and it is a primary commodity here. We are already importing more than 50 percent of our rice,” he said.
Naikoo has a similar perception, though from a personal point of view. “For generations our family never bought rice from the market. We grow what we need, in our rice fields. We can’t think of any other way,” he said. But, other farmers are more adventurous and have been shifting away from paddy to cash crops like apple, almond and walnuts.
“The trend could be a consequence of climate change as farmers find it increasingly difficult to irrigate their rice fields,” says Shafiq Ahmad Wani, director of research at Shalimar Agriculture University.
“In the Brang area of south
