SRINAGAR: Jammu and Kashmir has warmed by nearly 1°C over the past two decades at several high-altitude locations, including Pahalgam and Gulmarg, with the strongest altitude-linked warming occurring during winter, according to a new study based on 45 years of temperature observations. The researchers say the changes could have serious implications for high-altitude hydrology, the cryosphere and the region’s ability to cope with climate change.
The study, published in Scientific Reports, analysed temperature records from 1980 to 2024 from 10 India Meteorological Department (IMD) surface observatories across Jammu and Kashmir: Banihal, Batote, Bhaderwah, Gulmarg, Jammu, Kokernag, Kupwara, Pahalgam, Qazigund and Srinagar. The stations cover a substantial elevation gradient, allowing the researchers to examine whether warming becomes stronger with altitude.
The research published in July 2026 found a statistically significant elevation-dependent warming (EDW) signal in the annual mean temperature of 0.18°C per kilometre per decade. The effect was considerably stronger in winter, when mean temperature increased by 0.35°C per kilometre per decade. Winter maximum temperature showed the strongest altitude dependence, increasing by 0.43°C per kilometre per decade.
The researchers, however, caution against treating the warming as a uniform phenomenon across the entire region. Their analysis found substantial differences between locations and between daytime and night-time temperatures.
“The observed warming over these regions is not driven by a uniform, altitude-dependent phenomenon, but also due to the interactions of a stronger, localised, non-altitude-sensitive signal,” the authors conclude.
One of the clearest signals emerged in minimum temperatures, particularly at mid- and high-elevation stations. Bhaderwah recorded annual minimum-temperature warming of about 0.78°C per decade, while Banihal recorded 0.59°C, Kokernag 0.47°C and Batote 0.35°C. Pahalgam, the highest station in the network at 2,740 metres, recorded a notable 0.58°C-per-decade increase in annual minimum temperature.
The warming was particularly pronounced at night. At Bhaderwah, the study records a statistically significant minimum-temperature trend of roughly 0.7°C per decade, with seasonal increases reaching about 0.8°C per decade during the pre-monsoon and monsoon periods. Batote, Banihal and Pahalgam also showed significant annual and seasonal night-time warming.
The pattern was markedly different at Jammu, the lowest-elevation station in the network at 367 metres. Rather than warming, Jammu showed a statistically significant annual minimum-temperature cooling trend of 0.45°C per decade. The researchers note that local land-use changes, including the expansion of irrigated agriculture, could potentially contribute to the anomaly, but stress that this was not directly evaluated and remains only a hypothesis.
The study also found that daytime warming was considerably more variable. Statistically significant annual maximum-temperature increases were observed at Srinagar, Kupwara and Kokernag, while some other stations showed little warming or even weak cooling. At Bhaderwah, for example, the annual maximum-temperature trend was negative but statistically insignificant.
The researchers used Sen’s slope estimator and Mann-Kendall test to quantify long-term temperature trends and assess their statistical significance. They combined the IMD observations with ERA5 reanalysis data for surface albedo, downward shortwave radiation, downward longwave radiation and specific humidity to investigate possible drivers of the warming.
The analysis points to different processes behind different components of the warming. For winter daytime temperatures, the researchers found a statistical association with surface albedo. They say this is consistent with the possibility that changes associated with snow cover could reduce surface reflectivity and increase the absorption of solar radiation.
But the authors are careful not to describe this as proof of a direct snow-albedo feedback. “The present analysis only demonstrates a statistical association between temperature trends and albedo trends after removing the influence of elevation,” they write.
For annual and seasonal minimum-temperature changes, atmospheric moisture appears to be more important. Specific humidity had a positive partial correlation with annual temperature variability, while the study suggests that increased atmospheric moisture could enhance longwave radiative trapping and reduce night-time cooling.
The researchers nevertheless stress that these findings should be treated as exploratory statistical associations rather than definitive causal explanations. The multiple-linear-regression analysis used only 10 stations and involved several predictors that were themselves correlated.
The study also identifies an important limitation in the region’s climate-monitoring network. High-altitude observations above 3,000 metres remain sparse, meaning the findings are principally representative of the available observational range rather than a complete picture of warming across the entire Himalayan cryosphere. The authors call for denser high-altitude observations and longer cryospheric records.
Despite these limitations, the researchers say the findings have implications well beyond temperature records. Jammu and Kashmir’s dependence on snow- and glacier-fed rivers means temperature changes could affect water availability, glacial melt, ecosystems and downstream socio-economic systems. The study says distinguishing between altitude-dependent warming and more localised processes will be important for assessing future mountain water resources and the sensitivity of the cryosphere.
The paper was authored by G. S. Gopikrishnan, Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath and VM Pranav Chandran. Gopikrishnan and Kuttippurath are affiliated with CORAL, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, West Bengal, while Chandran has affiliations with CORAL, IIT Kharagpur, and the Aeronautical Meteorological Station, India Meteorological Department, Kannur International Airport, Kerala.
The paper records Gopikrishnan as responsible for methodology, software, validation, formal analysis, investigation, data curation, visualisation and the original draft. Kuttippurath contributed to conceptualisation, methodology, analysis, investigation, resources, writing, review and editing, visualisation and supervision, while Chandran contributed to data curation, formal analysis, writing and review.
The research was published in Scientific Reports, which publishes original research across the natural sciences, psychology, medicine and engineering and says its editorial process focuses on scientific validity and technical soundness, with formal peer review.
