SRINAGAR: A comprehensive spatial mapping study has revealed that nearly half of the Poonch Forest Division in Jammu and Kashmir is exposed to moderate or high forest fire risks, driven heavily by flammable pine vegetation, local wind patterns, and human activity along forest boundaries.
Published on February 25, 2025, in the peer-reviewed journal Discover Forests by Springer Nature, the research highlights that 65 forest compartments spanning 97.9 square kilometres are currently classified under high-risk conditions, posing a significant threat to regional biodiversity and local communities. The study is titled Assessing forest fire vulnerability with fuzzy‑AHP: insights from Poonch forest division, Jammu and Kashmir.
The exhaustive study was conducted by a multi-institutional team of researchers comprising Furqan Ahmed Malik, LT Sasang Guite, and Shruti Kanga from the Department of Geography at the Central University of Punjab; Fayma Mushtaq from the Applied Research Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies at King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals; Majid Farooq from the Department of Ecology, Environment and Remote Sensing, Government of Jammu and Kashmir; Gowhar Meraj from the Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences at The University of Tokyo; Suraj Kumar Singh from the Centre for Climate Change and Water Research at Suresh Gyan Vihar University; and Pankaj Kumar from the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies in Japan.
To address the growing frequency of wildfires across the Himalayan region, the research team employed a Fuzzy-Analytical Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy-AHP) integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial tools. This advanced decision-making approach allowed the scientists to evaluate six core environmental, topographic, and human factors that influence fire outbreaks: vegetation type, wind speed, terrain slope, aspect (the directional exposure of slopes), and proximity to nearby roads and human settlements.
By analysing these parameters, the authors determined the precise weight and influence of each driver. Vegetation type emerged as the single most critical factor behind fire susceptibility, receiving a weighted importance value of 36.63%. This dominant influence is primarily attributed to extensive stands of Chir-pine (Pinus roxburghii), whose dry leaves and high resin content make the forest floor extremely combustible.
Meteorological conditions ranked as the second-largest driver, with wind speed accounting for 25.39% of the overall risk weight. Stronger wind currents, particularly those moving along deep river valleys and mountain gaps, reduce fuel moisture levels and accelerate the rate at which active flames spread.
Anthropogenic factors also demonstrated a heavy influence on fire patterns across the border district. Proximity to human settlements contributed 19.60% to the total vulnerability score, while distance to road networks added another 10.13%.
The study noted that human presence, whether through accidental ignitions, agricultural burning, or recreational activities, significantly increases the likelihood of a fire starting within a 100-to-200-meter buffer zone around built-up areas and transport corridors.
Physical topography made up the remaining share of influence, with slope aspect contributing 5.31% and slope steepness accounting for 2.93%. South- and southwest-facing slopes were found to be more fire-prone due to greater exposure to direct sunlight, elevated surface temperatures, and lower humidity levels.
Covering a total geographical extent of 918.61 square kilometres, the Poonch Forest Division was categorised into four distinct risk classifications across its 407 administrative compartments. Medium vulnerability represents the largest share of the territory, encompassing 342.68 square kilometres, or 37.30% of the entire division, spread over 169 compartments.
High vulnerability zones account for 97.90 square kilometres (10.66% of the total area) across 65 compartments, bringing the combined medium-to-high risk coverage to 47.96%. Conversely, areas designated as unlikely to experience forest fires cover 333.05 square kilometres (36.26%) across 93 compartments, largely located in high-altitude snowfields and barren rocky ridges.
Zones with low vulnerability encompass 144.98 square kilometres (15.78%) across 80 compartments. A closer examination of the division’s three territorial ranges reveals notable regional variations in risk.
The Surankote Forest Range, which covers 442.06 square kilometres, contains the largest expanse of high-risk forest land at 44.25 square kilometres distributed among 16 compartments. Surankote also features 171.74 square kilometres of medium-risk terrain across 53 compartments.
The Haveli Forest Range, covering 372.88 square kilometres, holds 32.32 square kilometres of highly vulnerable land across 26 compartments and 128.40 square kilometres of medium-risk land across 78 compartments.
Meanwhile, the Mendhar Forest Range spans 103.67 square kilometres and harbours 21.33 square kilometres of high-risk land across 23 compartments, alongside 42.54 square kilometres of medium-risk area.
Lower-elevation compartments characterised by open scrub vegetation and dense road networks exhibited the highest risk concentrations overall.
To verify the predictive accuracy of the Fuzzy-AHP model, the research team validated their vulnerability map against 122 historical, GPS-verified forest fire incidents recorded by the forest department between 2002 and 2024.
The overlay analysis demonstrated an exceptionally strong correlation between predicted risk zones and past incidents. Out of the 122 historical fire points, 101 incidents, representing 82.79% of the total, occurred directly within areas identified as highly vulnerable by the model. Another 16 incidents (13.11%) fell within medium vulnerability zones, while only 5 incidents (4.10%) were located in low vulnerability areas, with zero incidents recorded in the unlikely category.
The authors emphasised that these detailed, compartment-level findings provide actionable data for forest conservationists, disaster response authorities, and local administrators. By identifying specific high-risk compartments, forest officials can prioritise preventative measures such as constructing fire lines, deploying strategic patrols during dry seasons, and pre-positioning suppression gear. The researchers also recommended stricter enforcement of local regulations to curb unauthorised forest clearing, control agricultural fires, and minimise human-induced ignitions along vulnerable forest fringes across the Western Himalayas.
