SRINAGAR: After the dry spell during Chilla-i-Kalan—the 40-day harshest winter period—Kashmir experienced another dry phase during the 20-day small cold known as Chillai Khurd. However, the Meteorological Department has predicted light to moderate rain and snow on the last day of Chillai Khurd, which ends on February 19.
A two-day wet spell is expected to bring relief, with widespread rain and snow forecast across Jammu and Kashmir until February 20.
Director of Meteorology (MeT), Dr. Mukhtar Ahmad said that light to moderate rain and snow is likely from the evening of February 19 until late afternoon on February 20. “A fresh Western Disturbance is set to hit the Union Territory,” he confirmed.
According to Dr. Ahmad, the plains of Kashmir and Jammu may experience light to moderate rain and thunderstorms with gusty winds, while the higher reaches of Chenab Valley and South Kashmir could see moderate snowfall of up to 10 inches. Snowfall in the higher reaches of north and central Kashmir may measure up to 8 inches.
Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif Keng stated that a Western Disturbance developing over Afghanistan on February 19 would move towards J&K by February 20, bringing widespread precipitation.
“The disturbance will first impact the higher reaches late at night on February 19 before intensifying across the region. Moderate rain and snow are expected across most of Jammu and Kashmir, with heavy precipitation likely in some areas,” Keng said.
The Chenab Valley districts—Ramban, Kishtwar, and Doda—are predicted to receive moderate to heavy precipitation. The plains of Kashmir Valley are expected to receive rain initially, but prolonged heavy precipitation could cause snowfall due to a sharp temperature drop.
Temperatures, expected to hover between 15°C and 18°C on February 19, are likely to drop below 7°C on February 20. Heavy snowfall is anticipated along the Pir Panjal range, affecting areas such as Gulmarg, Sinthan Top, Peer Ki Gali, and parts of Mughal Road.
Keng also warned of potential thunderstorms and lightning due to higher temperatures, especially in the Jammu region. There is a risk of landslides and shooting stones along the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway on February 20.
“Conditions are expected to improve from February 21,” Keng added.
