Adverse weather conditions have started impacting almost everything in Kashmir: health, energy, vegetables, fruits, rice, water supply and education. As an outcome of climate change, it is high time to start a campaign to undo what the people and the governments have been doing for decades, writes Masood Hussain
After more than a decade of a peaceful and tension-free life, Ruqaiya, a banker’s homemaker wife, down south is instantly unhappy. “We never had issues in between,” she said. “We still do not have many but my crisis is that he (husband) is frequently telling me that the costs of living are surging because of my incapacity to spend properly.”
The 5-member family has a 2-storey home, a car, a couple of small orchards and many vegetable gardens. Their relative supplies them the milk they consume. Their kids go to the best school in the town. The real issue that has triggered an unending debate is the vegetable supply.
“We used to grow enough for the family and gift part of it to the relatives,” Ruqaiya said. “This year, the vegetable garden is in a mess. Despite the best efforts I made, all the leafy vegetables that we had were devastated by a disease. This has led me to purchase the same from the vendors who sell the Jammu vegetables in autos. This is a good addition to our daily costs and that is what he is always talking about.”
The routine is that the man takes care of his hectic job and the wife manages the kids, the kitchens and the gardens. “I am unable to explain that the vegetable failure is not my fault but a weather crisis,” she said. “I know in the coming days, I will also be blamed for the undersized apples in the garden. Again, this is not my fault.”
Tip of Iceberg
The weather is dictating its writ as Kashmir is emerging as the key crucible of climate change. Renowned for its breathtaking landscapes and pristine natural beauty, the Paradise of the Indies is now at the forefront of an alarming climate crisis.
The crisis was visible at the peak of the winter when the chill and chilblain were around but not the snow. Over the past two fortnights, the region has been engulfed in an unprecedented heat wave, with daytime temperatures soaring to levels not seen in decades.
Daytime temperatures in Srinagar hovered around 35.7°C, perilously close to breaking the record of 38.3°C set in July 1946. On July 28, 2024, the city recorded a scorching 36.2°C, with the real feel temperature reaching a blistering 40°C. The city also recorded its highest minimum temperature in 132 years at 24.6 °C. On a few days in July, the temperature of Jammu, a humid sub-tropical region of the erstwhile state, almost equalled Srinagar, a temperate region.
Srinagar Weatherman Dr Mukhtar Ahmad admitted “inconsistent” mercury surges with certain areas exhibiting abnormal spikes of 6 to 8 degrees; and extreme weather events. “In the absence of major western disturbances, there is no significant weather activity,” he argued, insisting the 2024 dry spell parallels similar events of the 1990s and 2000s. “We had better rainfall in other Himalayan states but the Pir Panchal range has been the perpetual monsoon barrier so the region suffers.”
Right now, Kashmir’s net rainfall deficit has crossed 40 per cent.
Drying Up Rivers
This unrelenting heat wave has parched the land, severely depleting the water levels in the Jhelum River and other vital water bodies, and causing an acute shortage of drinking water. Though officials suggest that Jhelum, the main river that drains the Kashmir valley, has lost one-third of the discharge, it visible is much more than that. At various places in Srinagar, anglers get into the river and catch fish. Several houseboats are ‘moored’ on river shoals supported by the thick ropes that are fixed into the shores.
The depletion was visible much earlier. At the start of the year, the glacial melt brought down a lot of water into the rivers. As the agricultural season started, the water levels receded dramatically.
Agriculture Hit
The ramifications of this heat wave are visible. Agriculture and horticulture, the backbone of Kashmir’s economy, are bearing the brunt of the prolonged dry spell. Crops are wilting, and the yield from orchards is dwindling, threatening the livelihoods of countless farmers. The situation led people to Nimaz-e-Istesqa, special prayers pleading for rain.
Kashmir, over the last three decades, has converted most of the rice fields into apple orchards and other cash crops for better incomes. The trend was more specific to South Kashmir. However, certain bowls in south and most of north and central Kashmir still grow rice. Right now, north Kashmir is facing an acute irrigation crisis. Rice fields at the tail of the irrigation canals and khuls are too dry and the possibility of crop success is impossible. Paddy plants are showing burnt tips indicating a crop failure and the vegetables have started drying up simply for lack of moisture in the soil.
Irrigation managers in Kashmir said the depleting discharge in water bodies has run riot with more than 10 per cent of the irrigation schemes already. The low discharge in the water bodies has led to compromised power generation in the hydroelectric projects that Jammu and Kashmir’s various power generation utilities run. The power sector is now relying more on imported thermal power than the clean energy that Jammu and Kashmir produces.
Holding dry spell responsible for the crisis in rice fields, top managers in the agriculture department said Kashmir is heading towards a situation in which they will be declaring an ‘agriculture draught’. They said they would wait for a week for weather improvement before making a formal declaration.
Already, the apple sector is taking a huge hit from the weather conditions. In too many orchards, the fruits are undersized, the foliage is gradually falling and the pesticides are not having an impact. A crisis in this sector, for the second consecutive season, can push Kashmir to a new mess.
Apple is already facing a lot of music in the market as it is being put to a new competition with imported verities. This situation led Srinagar MP, Agha Ruhullah to get angrier while speaking in the Lok Sabha on the sixth consecutive budget presented by Nirmala Sitharaman. “You are fighting two battles with us,” he roared. “One, you are sending us highly toxic pesticides and then you are permitting zero-duty imports.”
Growers in Saffron-rich Pampore anticipate a very low outcome from their fields. Though some patches of the fields have drip irrigation systems in place, the fall in the water table is said to be a factor that can damage this year’s crop, the world’s costliest spice.
An Extended Crisis
The prevailing weather conditions are an extension of the situation that had set in already.
The 2024 winter had a rainfall deficit of 54 per cent, surpassing earlier similar situations. Between December 2023 and February 2024, Jammu and Kashmir recorded 129.7 mm of rainfall against the expected 284.9 mm. January 2024 recorded a 91 per cent shortfall, December 79 per cent and February 17 per cent. Shopian, Kashmir’s new apple capital saw an 82 per cent rainfall deficit.
The rainfall deficit has been a consistent phenomenon. It was 34 per cent in the 2022-23 winters. In Kashmir, winter starts in December and concludes in March. The 2021-22 winters were better as the rainfall deficit was only nine per cent but that of 2020-21 was worst as Jammu and Kashmir recorded a 37 per cent deficit.
In 2023, Kashmir witnessed heavy rainfall in March and April followed by a sudden dry spell in June. In August rainfall deficit was 100 per cent. In 2024, between June and July, the deficit is nearly 100 per cent.
“Overall, so far up to July 31, 2024, the rainfall deficit stands at 29 per cent,” Faizan Arid, Kashmir’s known weather expert, said. “We recorded 588.2 mm of rainfall against normal rainfall of 824 mm.”
This situation is interrupted by extreme weather conditions which is a basket in itself. It includes early summer snowfall, extreme rain, frequent cloud bursts, continued dry spells and during winter snowless chill, which indicates desertification of sorts.
Hunting for Reasons
Scarred by the prevailing situation, people are crowding the special prayers but neither the society nor the governance structure is keen to look at the factors that have brought Kashmir to this state. Seemingly nobody is interested in this. The environmental degradation witnessed in the region is a direct consequence of years of negligence and unsustainable practices.
Kashmir consumes imported poplar timber to sustain its architectural appetite but that is not preventing the felling of forests. Wetlands are buried to pave the way for newer human settlements and government buildings. No water body has its discharge worth human use as these are festering drains full of plastic and human waste. Tens of thousands of trees including apple orchards are felled every year for the ongoing Vikas story.
With booming tourism, almost every mountain trek is busy these days. The high-altitude lakes that would usually remain hidden in the clouds now sustain tented habitations and LPG-fired tea stalls on their shores. While everybody is milking the boom, nobody is interested in dusting the treks and collecting tons of dirt that the money-minting trekking is currently buried under. Everybody is busy in knowing and conveying numbers and footfalls.
Glaciers which should have been protected monuments of nature are inviting tourists to play upon them. Kashmir’s glaciers, the lifeblood of its rivers and streams, are retreating at an alarming rate. The Kolahoi Glacier, the largest in the Jhelum Basin, is rapidly shrinking due to rising temperatures and pollution. Thajiwas, Hoksar, Nehnar, Shishram, and those around Harmukh, are also melting fast. This accelerated glacial retreat threatens the region’s water supply and increases the risk of natural disasters.
A Perfect Imbalance
Though the entire Himalayan region is under severe threat, Kashmir is emerging as a huge crucible with quick and visible impacts. Warmer winters and hotter summers are disrupting the delicate equilibrium, leading to long-term impacts on food, energy, and water security. Experts have already warned that the deficit in snowfall and rising temperatures could trigger cryosphere-related hazards, which include permafrost degradation, early snowmelt, and glacier degeneration.
The horrible crisis demands immediate and concerted action. Stakeholders, including the scientific community, policymakers, and the public, must join hands to address the environmental challenges facing Kashmir. Raising awareness about the importance of conserving natural resources and implementing sustainable practices at the village and locality levels is crucial.
