by Dr Syed Suhail Yaqoob
Economics suggests that industries are bound to face short-run slumps. The challenge for apple growers is not the fall in prices itself, but their fragile ability to absorb such shocks.
The apple industry is the backbone of rural life in Jammu and Kashmir. Its significance is borne out by statistics. It contributes 6.8 per cent of the union territory’s GDP and provides a livelihood to nearly 3.5 million farmers, about 27 per cent of the population. It accounts for 78 per cent of India’s annual apple production. Exports alone make up 8 per cent of the GDP.
In 2021-22, apple exports from the region stood at 12.07 lakh metric tonnes, rising to 17.48 lakh metric tonnes in 2022-23, and 18.57 lakh metric tonnes in 2023-24, before falling to 13.13 lakh metric tonnes by February 2025. Between January 2024 and January 2025, revenue generated through exports exceeded Rs 12,000 crore. Sopore Fruit Mandi, Asia’s largest fruit market, accounted for about half of this amount, around Rs 6,000 crore.
In pursuit of better returns, farmers, with government support, began diversifying into high-density apple cultivation in 2015. Orchards now produce varieties such as Jeromine, King Roat, Gala Scarlet, Red Velox, Scarlet Spur-II, Super Chief, Redlum Gala, and Auvi Fuji. To encourage this trend, the government has been providing a 50 per cent subsidy under the Modified High-Density Plantation Scheme, which targets 5,500 hectares by 2026.
In March 2021, a modified high-density plantation scheme was rolled out for apple, walnut, cherry, mango, litchi, and olive in collaboration with the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India Ltd (NAFED). The Economic Survey Report records that the distribution of high-density plants increased five-fold in two years, from 6.41 lakh in 2021-22 to 32.49 lakh in 2023-24. This points to a steady rise in the area under high-density cultivation.
Digitalisation has also supported growth. The Economic Survey 2024 states that 17 of 24 functional mandis in Jammu and Kashmir are now connected to the electronic National Agriculture Market (e-NAM) platform. Transactions worth Rs 450 crore have taken place, with trade value through e-Mandis climbing from Rs 0.14 crore to Rs 416.39 crore.
Despite these advances, a recent crash in prices, particularly of high-density varieties, has cast a shadow. Estimates suggest prices have fallen by 40 per cent compared with last year. This season, one kilogram of high-density apples fetched about Rs 75, against Rs 130 last year. In 2024, the same quantity was priced at Rs 140.
One major reason for the fall is higher production in Himachal Pradesh, Kashmir’s main competitor in the apple trade. The decline threatens to halt the conversion of traditional orchards into high-density ones. Farmers may reconsider their investment unless decisive measures restore their confidence. While the fall in prices can be termed a natural outcome of market forces, the real concern lies in the limited capacity of farmers to withstand such steep declines.
Some initiatives have aimed at minimising losses. Jammu and Kashmir’s total controlled atmosphere storage capacity is now 2.70 lakh metric tonnes, with an additional 0.37 lakh metric tonnes added this year, taking the total to 3.07 lakh metric tonnes. The principal storage hubs are located at the Industrial Growth Centre in Lassipora, Pulwama, and at the Industrial Estate in Aglar, Shopian. Expansion is planned in partnership with the Industries and Commerce Department.
Economics suggests that industries are bound to face short-run slumps. The challenge for apple growers is not the fall in prices itself, but their fragile ability to absorb such shocks.
It is the declining capacity to absorb crisis that has become a serious concern for the apple industry. Weather patterns are increasingly erratic. The Kashmir valley, particularly the apple belt, is at the mercy of the elements. Until harvest, farmers live in fear of sudden shifts. Untimely rain, snow, or the looming threat of drought weigh heavily on them.
This year, conditions were especially troubling. A severe heatwave gripped the valley, pushing the temperature to 37.4, the highest recorded daytime level in seventy years, about seven degrees above the seasonal average. June was the hottest in fifty years. A 2021 study revealed that maximum temperatures in Kashmir rose by 2C between 1980 and 2020, an average increase of 0.5C °C per decade.
Global Forest Watch reported that Jammu and Kashmir lost nearly 0.39 per cent of its total tree cover between 2001 and 2023 due to deforestation and forest fires. Rising temperatures have profound implications for the apple economy. In January and February this year, rainfall was 80 per cent below average. The shortfall in precipitation reduced fruit size, lowered productivity, and compromised quality, while also creating conditions for pests. Elevated temperatures have fuelled infestations of aphids, mites, and leaf miners. Farmers had to contend with pests almost the entire year, which increased costs. Hailstorms struck large parts of the valley, leaving damage worth crores of rupees.
Another grave challenge is the shrinking size of landholdings. The average household in Kashmir has less than four kanals of land, and this figure is projected to fall below two kanals by 2050. Data from the Union Agriculture Ministry show that average landholdings declined from 0.62 hectares per person in 2011 to 0.59 hectares in 2016. Within the valley, the situation is even starker. Kulgam and Anantnag average 0.39 hectares, Shopian 0.56, Pulwama 0.48, Srinagar 0.31, Budgam 0.43, Baramulla 0.51, Ganderbal 0.37, Kupwara 0.51, and Bandipora 0.48.
More than 85 per cent of farms in Jammu and Kashmir fall into the marginal category. Small and fragmented landholdings prevent farmers from producing on a larger scale. They cannot adopt advanced technology, which hampers efficiency. When prices rise, their production is too limited to benefit significantly. When prices fall, their livelihoods are threatened. High-density apple cultivation was seen as a remedy, but the steep fall in the prices of these varieties has deepened their anxiety.
Equally pressing is the problem of spurious fertilisers, fungicides, and pesticides. Their sale and use in Jammu and Kashmir pose a danger to horticulture. Ineffective chemicals fail to control disease and pest outbreaks, forcing farmers to use as many as 17 sprays annually. This not only increases their expenses but also undermines productivity. Substandard agrochemicals risk damaging the reputation of Kashmiri apples in national and international markets.
The government has attempted to address this crisis by curbing the circulation of spurious inputs. For this effort to succeed, stringent regulations, advanced testing facilities, farmer education, and the promotion of sustainable practices must be strengthened.
While declining prices are a major worry for fruit growers, the deeper structural challenges of the apple industry cannot be ignored. Short-term fluctuations in price can be endured for a year or two, but weak fundamentals threaten long-term survival. Policymakers must prioritise durable strategies so that the industry can withstand recurring shocks. Measures such as afforestation, preventing the erosion of horticultural landholdings, crop insurance, and strict oversight of fertilisers and pesticides are essential if the apple economy is to endure.
(The writer is an Assistant Professor of Economics, Higher Education, Jammu and Kashmir. Views are personal.)
