SRINAGAR: The Jammu and Kashmir Government on Tuesday informed the Legislative Assembly that five glacial lakes in the Kashmir Himalaya have been identified as having “very high susceptibility” to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), with over 2,700 buildings and key infrastructure falling within potential downstream impact zones.
Replying to Starred Assembly Question tabled by MLA Tanvir Sadiq, the government said a recent scientific study conducted by the Department of Geoinformatics, University of Kashmir and published in the Journal of Glaciology analysed 155 glacial lakes using hydro-geomorphic indicators such as lake expansion rate, dam stability and surrounding conditions.
Based on this assessment, the lakes Bramsar, Chirsar, Nundkol, Gangabal and Bhagsar were categorised under the “very high susceptibility” class relative to others in the region. However, the government clarified that this classification does not imply that these lakes are currently unstable or at immediate risk of breach, but indicates higher vulnerability under specific triggering conditions.
The study has identified that these five lakes together pose a potential threat to around 2,704 buildings, nearly 15 major bridges, segments of road infrastructure and at least one hydropower project located downstream.
The government said a preliminary geospatial analysis has been conducted to map downstream exposure in districts such as Ganderbal, Shopian and Kulgam, identifying habitations and infrastructure along possible flood paths. However, it noted that precise risk assessment, including flood magnitude and warning timelines, requires detailed data on lake volumes, which is currently unavailable due to lack of field-based bathymetric surveys.
To address this gap, authorities have initiated steps for scientific data generation, including procurement of a high-precision RTK-enabled robotic echo-sounding boat with support from the Ministry of Earth Sciences. Bathymetric surveys of high-risk glacial lakes in the western Himalaya are planned for 2026 to enable accurate modelling and risk estimation.
The government further said that efforts are underway to strengthen monitoring and early warning systems through integration of satellite-based observation, field data, sensor-based hydrometeorological measurements and near real-time communication frameworks.
It added that future mitigation measures will include continuous monitoring of vulnerable lakes, installation of early warning mechanisms, development of eco-zonation plans in downstream areas and incorporation of GLOF risk scenarios into district-level disaster management plans.
Officials said the current findings serve as a baseline for policymakers and disaster management agencies, with ongoing scientific efforts expected to improve preparedness and response strategies in vulnerable Himalayan regions.
