With its demography divided along sectarian lines Zadibal constituency is full of complexities for any contestant. Will the new face replace incumbent ‘development’ driven lawmaker, only time will tell. Raashid Maqbool tries to gauge the mood
Results of recently held Lok Sabha election turned tables and brought dramatic and shocking changes in the political landscape on both national as well as state level. Family fortunes were lost and the grammar of political language underwent complete change. Ruling elites like Congress and National Conference (NC) were squarely rejected by the people. It was a paradigm shift.
After the debacle in Parliament elections, in J&K, NC is faced with bigger challenge to hold the home ground in forth coming assembly election. If the devastating trend of Parliament election continues the party might be found struggling for a face saving.
Largest opposition party Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was slowly and steadily gaining ground in the State, especially in rural expanse since its inception. However, in the Parliament elections of 2014 the ‘green’ party showed a remarkable progress in urban Srinagar; historically a strong fort of NC.
Zadibal in district Srinagar is one such constituency where recent poll results indicated the green revolution.
Demographically, Zadibal is unevenly distributed along the sectarian lines. The constituency layout has Shia majority pockets alongside thick Sunni belt and has patches that have mixed population of both the communities. Out of total 96 polling stations almost 20 comprise of Shia majority voters; however the positioning affords them a degree of advantage. The complexities born out of such a mapping glaringly shows up during elections. Governance presumably is not the only issue, priorities rooted in identity politics have a potential to significantly influence the shaping of outcome of any power negotiation in the constituency. That influence though has so far been mitigated by boycott factor, party alliances and polarization within communities.
In last 10 assembly elections since 1957 National Conference won the seat eight times and twice it went to independent candidates: Salim Anwar in 1972 and to Late Shahjahan Dar in 2008. Dar later joined Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
The constituency is distributed in seven patwar halqas: Kawdara, Zadibal, Zoonimar, Anchar, Nowshera, Lalbazar and Madin Shahab. It has shown comparatively higher voting trend in the past, however, in the recent Lok Sabha polls the percentage was 5.59; second lowest in Srinagar after Habakadal. In 2002, out of total 67852 votes 3244 were cast i.e., 4 per cent whereas in 2008 the percentage shot up to 17.3 (12,427 out of 71,819). It is worth mentioning that the number of candidates in fray in 2008 was exactly double the number of candidates contesting in previous election i.e., 16. Dip in voting percentage in Parliamentary elections in 2014 is rationalized on many counts. Some read it as the effect of general indignation among people towards ruling NC and many others argue it was the result of absence of local face in the fray as people felt less proximity with the candidate.
In spite of the low voter turn over voting pattern was suggestive of a pro-PDP wave. Overwhelming mood in support of PDP was discernible in many polling stations that later manifested itself in Poll results too. Out of 4475 votes polled in total PDP’s share turned out 2149, NC took 1900 and miscellaneous went to others.
Among other grand narratives Lok Sabha elections of 2014 busted the hyperbole of election-boycott- advantage-theory too. Before the elections results were out the largely held belief among the political pundits was that the advantage of boycott always goes to NC. Grapevine had trickled the “observation” down to common man and it was so widely accepted that it had almost attained the status of a theory. In the run up to Lok Sabha seats, performance of candidates, in most of the areas, including Zadibal proved the case otherwise. Based on the recent observations it can be safely said, especially in case of Zadibal, that given the multiple factors, boycott could end up in favor of PDP too. Nevertheless, the possibility of healthy poll in the constituency taking the game to either side cannot be ruled out.
Players & Issues
PDP is planning to take NC full on. Party has announced mandate in favor of Moulvi Imran Reza Ansari son of Moulvi Ifthkhar Hussain Ansari. Moulvi Iftikhar is PDP vice president, prominent cleric and one of the senior most politicians in J&K. He has an impressive following in the Shia community. In his early 40’s Imran is trying to strike a bond with the youth in his constituency. It is his maiden attempt. Having a Political Science (Honrs.) degree from Jamia Milia Islamia (New Delhi) Imran has also studied Comparative Religion from Damuscus University, Syria and then moved on to celebrated Qom seminary in Iran for further studies in Islamic Jurisprudence. He has been on study trips to London and Beirut as well.
Abul Hassan Khan contested assembly election from the constituency in 2008 as independent candidate and later joined PDP. He believes that youth will be the game changers during the polls and that they are connecting fast with the youth. “Young people are fed up and they want change and the only alternative emerging is People’s Democratic Party”. As per Khan Imran Ansari has, in less time, created strong bond with youth as they can “identify with the young leader”.
Imran Ansari himself banks on “the people’s urge for an alternative and need for change”. While talking to Kashmir Life he said, “Some people have a wrong notion that willingly or unwillingly people will vote for NC as if they don’t have an alternative.” “The alternative is there and people want change that they shall see,” he further added. Imran claims that youth are his priority and he wants their problems to be addressed. “I am one of them; want to work with them and for them.”
Imran has been holding regular meetings with the people in different parts of the constituency. He has been taking up some burning issues of the area. Increasing drug addiction among youth being one. As per Imran they (youth) are not to be blamed for this. “Due to the lack of educational avenues, carrier and job opportunities poor youth are caught in a whirlpool from where they need to be pulled out not banished.” Creating more recreational facilities for the youth in this deep downtown area is another promise that Imran has made.
Shrinking and stinking of three famous and significant water bodies of the area viz., Khushal Sar, Gil Sar and Anchar is a long pending and most burning issue for the common people there. People have been, since long protesting and making presentations to the government demanding necessary and immediate steps to be taken to restore the water bodies to their glory and get the population rid of the pollution, the stink, the sickness and the discomfort it causes. However, no development that can be spoken of has been witnessed in this regard. Imran Ansari has kept this issue in his priority list too besides widening of roads and inner lanes.
Sitting MLA of the constituency Peer Aafaq (NC) acknowledges the problem of the water bodies. He maintained that he has time and again raised the issue in the assembly and also during various meetings. “Due to my incessant attempts LAWDA designed a project for the revival and revitalization of the said water bodies and the project is lying in Delhi for the want of the sanction.” Peer is hopeful that the project will get the nod in affirmation soon.
Peer won the election in 2008 by polling 4335 votes. Prior to starting his career in politics Peer Aafaq said he was, “working as an activist for the cause of development”. And now as MLA he rests his case on development alone. “I believe in the politics of development.” Giving a “brief” account of his developmental works Peer told Kashmir Life, “I have started construction of seven community halls in the constituency out of which four will be hopefully, inaugurated this month. I also got 1262 lanes and by lanes renovated and macadamized all the main roads. Only two roads are still under construction Mirza Kamil Sahab and Botsha Mohalla but will be completed in due time.” He rated his development work conservatively “40 to 50 percent done”, “however lot is to be done yet,” he quickly added. Peer especially made mention of Power Sector and said that in this sector the government is yet lagging far behind the objective.
He said “Whatever I have done is evident and I will go to people with my progress on development if they accept me I will continue to serve them with the same fervor.” Peer Aafaq has often been accused of remaining away from the public sight and not visiting his constituency. Responding to the accusation he said, “I don’t believe in such type of politics. Public meetings and Jalsas is just not my way. My focus is on work always and instead of wasting time in such engagements I spent time on development works.”
Former MLA Zadibal Late Sadiq Ali’s son and political advisor to Chief Minister Omer Abdullah Tanvir Sadiq has also been a player in the constituency. In 2008 he contested assembly elections from here as independent candidate and polled 2759 votes; third highest following late Shahjahan Dar (3094) and sitting MLA Peer Afaaq (4335). Though he himself is not the resident of the area but still has a say in the affairs. There are other external forces that might influence the voting pattern in Zadibal. Aga Syed Mehmood of Budgam, who left PDP and joined NC recently and Aga Ruhullah of NC also have following in some areas of the constituency. The support base is likely to impact the voting pattern to a degree of advantage for NC.
Congress too has its share in the vote bank here. Party president Prof Saifudin Soz had made many visits to the area. The party claims credit of some developmental work in the deeper pockets of Zadibal. So far the congress vote has not affected the results here in any significant way. However, if NC and Congress decide not to go for pre poll alliance, which many members of both parties are demanding, then Congress might want to field their own candidate from the constituency; in that case the vote will further split.
There is a silent but significant sub community in the constituency that is of artisans associated with handicrafts. Lying across the community and area divide the artisans and artisan families form a considerable number of voters. So far political parties have been trying hard to woe this community. A Craft Development Institute was established in the area to boost the handicrafts. Chief Minister Omer Abullah inaugurated the Centre. Also low interest lone schemes have been introduced to provide monitory support to the artisan community. According to Peer Aafaq he himself has got sanction of loans for 200 artisans. However, artisans are no satisfied with the government. Gulam Mohammad a local artisan is a national awardee. Expressing his dissatisfaction with the government he said, “No meaningful steps were ever taken that could benefit the artisans. With the result artisans are leaving the work and prefer to sell socks on the road side.” He said, “Loans that are provided to artisans are wasted as they don’t know how and where to use the money; which eventually gets consumed in construction or put to other unproductive uses.” Artisans want a market space where they can sell their products directly to customers eliminating the intermediary dependence. “Time and again this issue has been brought up with the authorities but it fell on deaf ears.” Talking about the problems of the artisan community Imran Ansari said, “PDP has plans to provide window to artisans so that they can display their works of art and also make direct contact with the buyers.” He said that he has done ground work on the issue of handicraft workers and if given chance he would take steps to uplift the community.
Parliamentary election gave some big shocks and surprises. Assembly elections seem to repeat the trend. With new players in the fray Zadibal constituency is seemingly going to witness a tough battle.
