Unlike a two-party contest in Jammu, the majority voter in Jammu Kashmir was given seven choices. Behaving maturely, the electors understood the game plan and subverted the script, reports Humaira Nabi
As the counting of votes for Jammu and Kashmir’s assembly elections progressed, several key constituencies drew significant attention, with prominent figures struggling to secure their positions. One such high-stakes constituency was Chanapora, where Syed Mohammad Altaf Bukhari, the founder President of Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party, faced off against JKNC’s Mushtaq Guroo and PDP’s Mohammed Iqbal Trumboo.
Experts saw this seat as one Assembly segment that could shape the future of politics in Kashmir. The newly formed Chanapora constituency, carved out of Amira Kadal, initially showed JKNC’s Mushtaq Guroo leading by 2996 votes in early trends, leaving political heavyweight Bukhari trailing behind. When the final results were announced, Mushtaq Guroo emerged victorious, securing 13717 votes against Bukhari’s 8,029. Bukhari’s defeat was a significant surprise, especially considering his political history and status as the wealthiest candidate in the race, with personal assets valued at Rs 165 crore.
Bukhari’s unexpected loss projected the rejection of smaller parties and independent candidates in Kashmir, which sprouted post-2019. These included reviving older political parties and adding newer start-ups to the list in Kashmir, unlike Jammu.
Engineer Rasheed’s Awami Itehad Party (AIP) stormed into centre stage during Lok Sabha with his sons running a modest campaign sending their father to the parliament. Despite earlier confidence from Rasheed about winning big, the AIP failed to make a significant impact. His party had fielded 44 candidates, but most performed poorly, including his spokesperson, Firdous Baba. Rashid’s only success came in Langate, where his brother, Sheikh Khurshid, narrowly won by 1602 votes. This segment was represented by Rasheed twice before being elected to Lok Sabha this summer. Nine AIP candidates secured less than 1,000 votes and most of them lost their security deposits.
This dismal performance came just months after Rasheed’s huge victory in the Baramulla Lok Sabha election, where he defeated JKNC leader Omar Abdullah and Jammu Kashmir Peoples’ Conference chief Sajad Lone with a few lakh votes.
The AIP’s alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami’s also proved ineffective. Returning to electoral politics after almost four decades, eight of the outfit’s 10 candidates, who contested as independents, lost their security deposits. Its candidates stood second in Baramulla, Shopian, Pulwama and Hom Shali Bugh but were defeated by significant margins. Their only close contest was in Kulgam, where Sayar Ahmad Reshi lost to CPI (M) leader Mohammed Yousuf Tarigami by around 8,000 votes. In rest of the seats, the Jamaat faced a humiliating defeat. In Sopore, traditionally a Jamaat stronghold, their candidate Manzoor Ahmad Kaloo managed just 406 votes out of over 51,000 cast.
Even though they projected themselves as Jamaat candidates, the veterans in the political class doubted their credibility. PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti repeatedly asserted that real Jamaat is in jail.
BJP Tag
Despite gaining popularity in Kashmir, these parties performed very poorly, primarily “due to the perception of being BJP-proxies”.
Prof Noor Ahmad Baba, a senior political commentator, explained that voters in Kashmir made a conscious decision to send a unified and strong message in response to the political changes imposed on Jammu and Kashmir over the past six years. He emphasised that the National Conference (NC), as the oldest party, has deep-rooted connections with the people of the region. By electing the NC, the people have made a clear statement, as the party represents a historical commitment to Article 370 and the constitutional relationship that existed before August 2019.
In contrast, the Apni Party struggled to gain traction. From its inception, it was perceived as a party that was deliberately pushed into the ring by external forces in post-2019 Kashmir, which significantly hindered its credibility among the local population. This perception was clear even during the parliamentary elections when the party failed to make a significant impact, leading to a gradual exit of its leading members. People began distancing themselves from the Apni Party because they did not view it as a genuine representative of their interests.
Bukhari, its founder, while relating to the commoners in the last many years but extending help on routine issues, always maintained that he stands for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The making of the party with political workers from migrants and deserters from other parties also kept in a common man’s suspicious list from the very start.
Baba emphasised that the Engineer’s Party initially received a sympathy vote in the parliamentary elections due to his imprisonment, which portrayed him as a victim. His earlier style of politics also garnered appreciation, but this sympathy did not translate into support for his party in the assembly elections. Voters were not necessarily supporting Rasheed himself but rather individuals with their own unique backgrounds. As a result, supporting the AIP did not align with the public desire for a unified voice against the political scenario in Kashmir, leading to doubts about the party’s intentions.
“It has been a mind game from the very start,” one political commentator, who wished not to be named, said. “In Lok Sabha when Engineer emerged as an icon of victimhood, people used votes and threw like stones and it got the projection of the emergence of separatism. The systems started working, and they got the engineer bail at the time of their choice which fizzled out his reputation and he added to it by attacking the key stakeholders in Kashmir, the NC and the PDP. Within 20 days, he ended up on the end of the other side in public perception.” He may or may not be an “agent” as JKNC, PDP and PC are accusing him of, but the reality is that his reputation is hugely comprised between the two elections.
Regarding Jamaat-e-Islami, Baba pointed out that the party has never been a strong electoral force in Kashmir, even in its early days. Its only significant success came in the 1972 elections when the National Conference was not in its present form, and competition was limited, allowing Jamaat to secure five seats. Beyond that period, the party rarely won more than two or three seats, with Syed Ali Geelani being a consistent figure in Sopore. Geelani’s influence in his constituency was a key factor, rather than the strength of Jamaat-e-Islami as a political force.
Jamaat, currently banned, emerged as a real force when it brought like-minded in the fold and launched the Muslim United Front (MUF) in 1987. This hugely rigged election is a watershed event in history as it triggered militancy within less than two years. MUF won four seats but would not have reached even 20 had not rigging taken place but the NC-Congress malpractice was an affront to the youth who were pushed to violence as the only means of communication.
The Insider’s voice
An AIP leader, closely associated with Rasheed, speaking on condition of anonymity, acknowledged that the perception of being a BJP proxy significantly undermined the party’s position in Kashmir. “There was a narrative pushed by various forces against our party, which caused people to question our credibility,” he admitted. “Even though we witnessed large crowds attending our rallies and were confident about winning a substantial number of seats, this support did not translate into votes during the elections.” In Lok Sabha, the party dominated 14 of the 18 assembly segments. In the assembly election, it struggled to retain Langate.
Asked about the party’s decision to field candidates with questionable backgrounds, he admitted the misstep. “We made a few poor choices, but I believe most of the seats were lost due to the unpopularity of our candidates in their respective constituencies,” he said. Rasheed told Kashmir Life that he knew only three candidates as he was in jail.
Shameem Ahmad Thoker, the Chief Spokesperson and Chief Election In-Charge of Jamaat-i-Islami, in an interview with a news organisation stated that the party’s defeat was influenced by internal challenges. “Our cadre was scattered, and they were in a state of confusion and fear,” he said. “Because of that, we couldn’t mobilise them effectively, and they did not come out to campaign for our candidates, which resulted in our inability to convert the floating voters.”
Commenting on the party’s overall performance, Thoker maintained a positive outlook despite the setback. “We had very little time to prepare for these elections. We convened our Shura (Executive Council) meeting on August 24, filed the nomination papers on August 27, and started campaigning on August 30, after receiving our election symbols. With barely 15 days of campaigning, we still managed to secure over 25,000 votes in Kulgam, more than 15,000 votes in Zainpora, and over 5,000 votes in Devsar. Given the circumstances, I would call that an achievement.”
His statement, however, is not convincing to those who have a deeper understanding of the situation. Since the Jamat’s decision to contest assembly elections, there were serious questions surrounding it.
“Even a naïve observer could sense that something was amiss. If they couldn’t even convince their own cadre, how could they expect support from others,” a senior journalist questioned. “The critical question remains: how many of the Jammu and Kashmir Jamaat leaders currently behind bars endorse this decision? In their stronghold of Sopore, their candidate only managed to secure 406 votes, and eight out of ten candidates failed to even meet the threshold to retain their deposits. How can this be viewed as a positive outcome.”
Alternative Politics
Post 1947, the govt of India has consistently attempted to create alternatives to the dominant political leaders and parties in Jammu and Kashmir, often to fragment the vote and reduce the influence of established figures. This pattern began with Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah when, in a significant political shift, he was dismissed as the Prime Minister of Jammu and Kashmir on August 8, 1953, by the then Sadr-i-Riyasat, Karan Singh. Sheikh was accused of losing the confidence of his cabinet and was not given a chance to prove his majority on the floor of the house. Following his dismissal, Bakshi Ghulam Mohammed was installed as the new Prime Minister, and Abdullah was sent to jail.
The political manoeuvring in Jammu and Kashmir continued with significant developments involving Farooq Abdullah and his brother-in-law, Ghulam Mohammad Shah in 1984, Ghulam Mohammad Shah dramatically shifted the political landscape by orchestrating a coup against his brother-in-law, Farooq Abdullah. He defected from the National Conference, taking along 12 party MLAs, and on July 2, 1984, successfully brought down Abdullah’s government. This move not only created a significant political rift between the two families but also altered the balance of power in the state. Shah then allied with the 26-member Indian National Congress legislature party and assumed the position of Chief Minister, marking a turning point in Jammu and Kashmir’s political history.
This trajectory was further marked by the formation of the PDP when Mufti Mohammad Sayeed left the Congress in 1999, along with his daughter, Mehbooba Mufti. They established the PDP to provide an alternative political voice in the region. Sayeed actively participated in the 2002 assembly elections, securing 18 seats for his party. Subsequently, he formed a coalition government with the Congress and was sworn in as the Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir for a three-year term.
Following the abrogation of Article 370, a similar pattern emerged with the establishment of the Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party by Altaf Bukhari on March 8, 2020, comprising a number of former members of the PDP.
A senior journalist noted that this trend reflects a deliberate strategy to fragment the votes among various parties, complicating the political dynamics in the area. “In the recent elections, multiple alternatives arose, further diluting the electoral landscape in Kashmir. These developments illustrate a trajectory of political fragmentation in the region.”
Divide and Rule
Over the years, Kashmir has been a political party-abundant place with almost every second person ready to become the Chief Minister. This has helped the systems to fracture the Kashmir mandate, unlike Jammu. It was Congress versus BJP in Jammu but in Kashmir, it was a much more elaborate exercise: it was JKNC versus PDP versus AIP versus Peoples Conference versus BJP versus Ghulam Nabi Azad-led Democratic Progressive Azad Party. This was running parallel to another set of divisions based on sects, tribes, languages and geography.
The majority of voters across Jammu and Kashmir understood the game plan and responded maturely. AIP and Peoples Conference barely managed to retain a single seat in north Kashmir; DPAP and Apni Party failed to open an account, and Jamaat was lost in the noise of democracy and JKNC emerged as the major political force giving Kashmir a single-party leadership after various decades.
