Jammu and Kashmir cast their ballots in a pivotal election, marking the region’s first electoral exercise in a decade and the first since losing special status in 2019. The outcome, to be announced on October 8, will shape the territory’s future reports Syed Shadab Ali Gillani
With voting over, the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir has entered a critical phase. This election marks the region’s first state-level electoral exercise in a decade and the first since its reorganisation in 2019 when its special status as a semi-autonomous state was revoked and the state was bifurcated into two Union Territories.
The election serves as a litmus test for the region, grappling with diminished political autonomy and persistent demands for statehood restoration. This pivotal moment will shape the future of Jammu and Kashmir’s complex relationship with the central government, forged by its unique history.
The Stakes
Jammu and Kashmir’s altered political landscape sets the stage for a fierce electoral battle. Traditional powerhouses, the National Conference (NC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP) face challenges from emerging voices, including independents and splinter groups. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seeks to solidify its influence in a historically resistant region, despite backlash over the central government’s expansion of the Lieutenant Governor’s powers.
Omar Abdullah, NC vice president, criticizes these changes but is contesting two seats, signalling his re-engagement with the electoral process. The PDP, led by Mehbooba Mufti, re-enters the arena with changing internal dynamics, highlighted by her support for her daughter, Iltija Mufti. New leaders like Engineer Rashid, Aga Ruhullah Mehdi, and Waheed Para aim to establish themselves as alternative voices.
Evolving Alliances
The National Conference (NC)-Congress pre-poll alliance presents a mixed picture, lacking visible unity despite successfully negotiating seat-sharing for 85 of the 90 constituencies. The NC contested 51 seats, with 34 in Kashmir, while Congress got 32, mostly in Jammu. Top leaders like Omar Abdullah have avoided many Congress events, and Rahul Gandhi rarely appeared jointly with JKNC.
The alliance struggles with tensions within on differing poll strategies. Congress issued show-cause notices to independent contestants, whereas the NC took a lenient approach. The NC pushes for Article 370’s restoration, while Congress remains silent, undermining the alliance’s cohesion. Senior leaders insist the alliance functions well on the ground, citing internal dissent as a natural part of coalition politics.
Other parties, like Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference and the Apni Party, have been side-lined after Engineer Rashid’s North Kashmir victory. This shifting landscape prompts these groups to adopt a more critical stance toward the BJP, highlighting the fluid nature of regional alliances.
The Electoral Process
This election was simplified into three phases to encourage participation. The phases took place on September 18, covering 24 constituencies, September 25 with 26 constituencies, and October 1 with 40 constituencies, competing for 90 seats.
About 3918000 eligible voters were registered, with prominent parties and independents contesting all constituencies. Notably, voter turnout was high at 63.88 per cent, surpassing the previous Lok Sabha elections’ 57.89 per cent. This increase indicates greater engagement with the democratic process, despite political unrest.
Voter Sentiments
Voter priorities revealed a significant disconnect between what political parties focus on and what truly matters to the electorate. While parties emphasise constitutional and statehood issues, voters are more concerned with everyday economic struggles, such as unemployment, underdeveloped infrastructure, and basic amenities.
This divergence indicates that voters are becoming increasingly pragmatic, prioritising immediate livelihood issues over political ideals. Mubashir Ahmed, a first-time voter from Baramulla, echoed the sentiments of many when he said, “We need attention and support from candidates consistently, not just during elections.”
Residents in constituencies like Langate share similar concerns, lamenting the lack of meaningful development and job opportunities over the past decade. These voices underscore the electorate’s desire for tangible solutions to their daily challenges, rather than mere political rhetoric.
The final phase of the elections was marked by intense competition between political veterans and newcomers. Notable contenders included Muzaffar Hussain Baig and Tara Chand, both former Deputy Chief Ministers, who ran as independent and contested candidates, respectively.
In North Kashmir, Sajjad Lone sought election in two constituencies, Handwara and Kupwara, while Engineer Rashid’s brother represented him in Langate. These high-profile candidacies heightened the election’s stakes, as each sought to secure traditionally loyal constituencies.
Border Districts
This election’s significance stretches beyond the Valley’s core regions, impacting border districts like Kupwara in Kashmir and Kathua in Jammu. These areas, often overlooked in political discussions, face distinct concerns such as security issues and economic isolation, which have historically been neglected by central and state administrations.
The election outcome in these constituencies is vital, as the chosen representatives will shape policies addressing the specific needs of these districts. Effective representation could finally bring much-needed attention to these areas, addressing their long-standing issues.
The Wait
The region awaits the October 8 election results, which will shape the new Assembly and influence the balance of power. The outcome will also impact the debate on restoring Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood. For voters like Naseer Ahmed from Kupwara, the new government offers a crucial chance to address pressing issues like unemployment, economic stagnation, and mismanagement of resources.
Ahmed emphasised, “With our government, we could have prevented resource mismanagement. People need representation that truly listens and acts.” This sentiment resonates across the region, where local issues have been neglected under the current administrative setup.
These elections mark a critical juncture for a transformed region. Since the 2014 elections, Jammu and Kashmir’s aspirations have shifted from special status and autonomy to economic stability and governance reforms.
The Third Phase
The third phase of Jammu and Kashmir’s Assembly polls recorded the highest turnout, with 69.69 per cent of voters casting ballots, surpassing the overall turnout of 63.88 per cent across all phases. Women outnumbered men in voting, according to the Election Commission.
Campaigning in the final phase featured prominent Kashmir province figures, including Engineer Rashid and Sajjad Lone, leader of the People’s Conference. Lone’s road show from Handwara to Kralpora drew large crowds, with supporters expressing devotion to him and his family legacy. One supporter noted, “We will vote sensibly, not emotionally, as we did in the Lok Sabha elections.” Lone’s rally stops were met with enthusiastic chants.
The October 1 polls saw 40 seats contested, with male voter turnout at 69.37 per cent and female voter turnout at 70.02 per cent. Notably, 44 per cent of third-gender voters cast ballots in this phase.
Voter Turnout
The Election Commission reported an overall turnout of 63.88 per cent, with male participation at 64.68 per cent and females at 63.04 per cent. The third-gender turnout was 38.24 per cent. Notably, traditional boycott bastions like Sopore and Baramulla recorded their highest turnout in three decades, albeit below 50 per cent.
The final phase saw a turnout of approximately 68.72 per cent of the 3,918,000 eligible voters. Samba district recorded the highest turnout at 73.45 per cent, followed by Udhampur at 72.91 per cent and Kathua at 70.53 per cent. Among constituencies, Chhamb topped with 77.35 per cent polling.
While the polling was largely peaceful, the third phase saw a marked dip in overall percentage compared to the 2014 Assembly elections, largely attributed to ongoing farming activities in seven districts. Most seats in the third phase saw a 1-15 per cent drop in turnout, except for Sopore, Baramulla, and Pattan, which recorded higher percentages.
Voting Patterns
The elections saw varying voter turnouts across different districts and constituencies.
In Udhampur district, the four segments recorded turnouts ranging from 70.38 per cent in Ramnagar (SC) to 74.07 per cent in Udhampur East. Samba district’s three seats saw Ramgarh (SC) polling at 73.10 per cent, Samba at 71.16 per cent, and Vijaypurat 73.05 per cent.
Baramulla district’s seven seats recorded a wide range, from 41.44 per cent in Sopore to 64.81 per cent in Uri. In Kupwara district, the six seats saw turnouts between 59.68 per cent in Kupwara and 69.06 per cent in Handwara. Bandipora district’s three seats ranged from 62 per cent in Bandipora to 75.89 per cent in Gurez (ST).
Notably, this election marked the first time since the abrogation of Article 370 that West Pakistani refugees, Valmiki Samaj, and Gorkha community members enthusiastically exercised their voting rights, participating in what was described as a “festival of democracy”.
Security Measures
Over 400 companies of security forces ensured smooth voting in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections. Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar hailed the elections as a significant deepening of democracy, dedicating them to the people of Jammu and Kashmir for their determination and belief in the democratic process.
The commission attributed the smooth elections to meticulous planning and constant vigilance. Notably, the increase in Assembly constituencies from 83 in 2014 to 90 in 2024 was managed efficiently, completing the elections in three phases. The commission also highlighted a significant improvement in law and order, with no major incidents reported, unlike in 2014 when over 170 incidents occurred.
The elections also saw a curtailment of money and muscle power, with coordinated efforts by enforcement agencies leading to record seizures worth Rs 130 crores. This surpassed the Rs 100.94 crore figure during the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections, demonstrating a significant deepening of democracy in the region.
The Pandit Voters
Over 18,000 Kashmiri Pandits were registered to vote in the third and final phase of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, spread across 16 assembly segments in three districts of North Kashmir. The majority of these Pandits reside in four camps in Jammu district: Jagti, Nagrota, Muthi, and Purkhoo, with Jagti housing around 20,000 residents.
To facilitate their voting, the Election Commission established 24 special polling stations in Jammu, one in Udhampur, and four in Delhi. This arrangement allows Kashmiri Pandits across India, including those in Jammu and Udhampur, to vote for candidates in their home constituencies in Kashmir, maintaining their connection to the valley.
The 2024 Assembly polls are historic, marked by the notable rise of independent candidates and the significant participation of displaced Kashmiri Pandits, who voted with the hope of returning to their homeland and seeing their long-standing issues addressed.
Independent Candidates
The elections saw a surge in independent candidates, with 365 contestants, the second-highest number since 2008. This has sparked speculation, with major regional parties alleging covert central government support, claiming these candidates aim to fragment the electorate rather than secure victories.
Omar Abdullah, Mehbooba Mufti, and Tariq Ahmed Karra, leaders of major regional parties, have expressed similar concerns, labelling independent candidates as “pawns of the centre” intended to “divide votes” and serve the central government’s agenda. They believe the BJP is using independents as proxies to divide the vote, knowing they cannot secure a majority under their banner.
The outcome of the election will be crucial, as independents can align with any group, including Jamaat and Engineer’s candidates, and are subject to fewer restrictions under the anti-defection law. As the region awaits the results, the sentiment is unmistakable: this election is a test of the people’s patience, resilience, and hope for a better future, potentially charting a new course in Jammu and Kashmir’s complex and turbulent political history.