Kashmir: NC’s Grand Return

   

Omar Abdullah’s decade-old promise to return to power is now a reality, as his party, in alliance with the Indian National Congress, has decisively won the 2024 assembly elections. This resurgence marks a significant shift in the region’s political landscape, reminiscent of the party’s past triumphs, writes Syed Shadab Ali Gillani

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Omar Abdullah’s 2014 tweet, Keep Calm, I will be back, resurfaced recently, following the 2024 assembly elections results. At the time, his party secured a mere 15 seats as the BJPDP coalition took over the government in Jammu and Kashmir pushing the grand old party to the opposition benches.

Ten years on, Abdullah has fulfilled his promise. With his alliance partner, the Congress, securing a decisive majority, Abdullah retweeted his old message, signalling his return to prominence.

Twitter users welcomed the Chief Minister-designate, with one writing, “And you are back.” Another user urged Abdullah to stay true to his word, saying: “Please sir, stay committed to your promise. Everything will be remembered. Please do not disappoint your people. Next time, your cap should be firmly on your head.”

Government Formation

Abdullah’s return to the political forefront marks a significant shift, given his party’s previous coalition with Congress in Jammu and Kashmir.

Jammu and Kashmir National Conference has emerged as a standout performer in the recent assembly elections, securing a decisive victory with 42 seats. This impressive win marks a significant milestone for the regional party, which previously achieved a similar feat in 1996 with 57 seats. Almost 28 years apart, the net difference between the two elections – 1996 and 2024, was that while the central government was so keen to see JKNC contesting and winning in 1996, it was almost the reverse of it in 2024.

The JKNC’s success is historic, as it becomes the first party in nearly two decades to form an absolute majority single-handedly. With four independent MLAs – Pyare Lal Sharma, Satish Sharma, Choudhary Mohammed Akram, and Dr Rameshwar Singh – extending their support, the National Conference now boasts 46 lawmakers in the 90-member house.

Notably, these independent MLAs, who won the Inderwal, Chhamb, Surankote, and Bani seats, have pledged their backing to the NC. This development highlights the JKNC’s dominance in the region and sets the stage for its leadership role in the newly formed government. Congress has already extended its support with six seats and the Aam Admi Party also pledged one vote getting Omar enough of number to be the sole stakeholder. He drove Friday night and met Manoj Sinha, the Jammu and Kashmir Lt Governor.

JKNC lawmakers in a group photograph at Nawa-ie-Subh party headquarters on October 10 2024

Significant Gains

Jammu and Kashmir’s grand old party made significant gains in the 2024 assembly elections. In Srinagar district, the party won seven out of eight seats, while in Budgam, it secured all constituencies. Ganderbal’s two seats also went to the JKNC. In South Kashmir, traditionally considered a PDP stronghold, the JKNC won 10 out of 16 seats. In Jammu province, the JKNC improved its performance, winning six out of 16 seats.

“The current mandate bears a striking resemblance to the 1977 elections in Jammu and Kashmir. At that time, a diverse coalition comprising academics, journalists, Janata Party members, religious clerics, Jamaat-e-Islami members, and other elements united with a singular aim: to challenge and defeat Sheikh Mohammed Abdullah,” Omar Abdullah observed the results. “Despite this broad alliance, the Jammu president of the Janata Party lost in his constituency in July 1977, underscoring Sheikh Mohammed Abdullah’s enduring influence.”

“Today, history has largely repeated itself, with the Jammu Kashmir National Conference achieving its most impressive results since 1996,” one political analyst noted. This victory puts to rest speculation that 365 independent candidates would divide votes and impact regional parties’ vote banks, a concern that had sparked strong reactions from Kashmir’s political parties.

Omar Abdullah has consistently described independent candidates as “pawns of the centre,” intended to “divide votes” and advance BJP’s interests.

However, the voters sent a clear message through their ballots. The election results showed that neither new parties, independents, nor Jamaat-e-Islami made a significant impact. Even Engineer Rasheed, a standout in the Lok Sabha elections, failed to make a mark.

Oldest Party

JKNC has a rich history that spans over nine decades. Founded in October 1932 by Sheikh Abdullah, Mirwaiz Yusuf Shah, and Chaudhry Ghulam Abbas, the party was initially known as the All Jammu and Kashmir Muslim Conference. However, it underwent a name change in June 1939, becoming the All Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, which led to a split within the party.

Sheikh Abdullah took the reins of the JKNC in 1947, a year after the Quit Kashmir movement, a bold stance against autocracy. The JKNC “secured” all 75 seats in the Jammu and Kashmir Constituent Assembly in 1951, with Sheikh Abdullah serving as prime minister until his dismissal in August 1953.

National Conference Party President Dr Farooq Abdullah along with his son Omar Abdullah and other leaders pay tribute to Party’s founder leader Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah on his 39th death anniversary at his grave in Srinagar on Wednesday September 8, 2021. KL Image by Bilal Bahadur

The party’s trajectory took a significant turn in 1965 when the Bakhshi-led JKNC merged with the Indian National Congress. However, this did not guarantee a smooth ride for Sheikh Abdullah, who faced arrest once again. His return to power in 1975 was facilitated by a deal with the central government, and his party’s victory in the 1977 elections solidified its position.

Following Sheikh Abdullah’s passing in 1982, his son Farooq Abdullah took over the party’s leadership. However, his tenure was marked by turmoil, including the ousting by his brother-in-law Ghulam Mohammad Shah in 1984 and his subsequent return to power in 1987. The growing unrest in the region led to Farooq’s dismissal in 1990, and the elections scheduled for 1991 were cancelled.

The JKNC’s history is a testament to the complexities and challenges that have shaped the region’s politics. Through its highs and lows, the party has remained a significant force in Jammu and Kashmir’s struggle for dignity and empowerment.

A Tumultuous History

The JKNC has experienced a tumultuous history, marked by periods of triumph and turmoil. In 1996, the party secured a state election victory emerged the most-voted party. Later, Farooq Abdullah stepped down in 2000 as party president, paving the way for his son Omar to take over the party.

In the 2002 elections, the JKNC’s fortunes waned, with the party managing only 28 seats. Farooq Abdullah’s decision to stay out of government, coupled with Omar’s loss in his first assembly elections from Ganderbal, relegated the JKNC to opposition status. Meanwhile, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) emerged as a key player, allying with Congress to assume power.

The JKNC’s performance in the 2008 elections was eerily similar, with the party again securing 28 seats. However, Omar Abdullah’s victory from Ganderbal and subsequent coalition with Congress enabled him to become the youngest chief minister.

Controversy has often surrounded the JKNC, particularly during the 2010 protests and the WikiLeaks torture scandal. The party’s downward trajectory continued in the 2014 elections, where it secured a meagre 15 seats, with the PDP and BJP dominating the political landscape.

Ups and Downs

A pivotal moment in the JKNC’s history came in 1977 when the state elections heralded the return of free and fair polls. Following the Emergency period from 1975 to 1977, which saw severe curbs on civil liberties, Prime Minister Morarji Desai implemented stringent measures to prevent electoral malpractice. This resulted in a notable 67 per cent voter turnout. The Indira-Abdullah Accord of 1975 had previously facilitated JKNC leader Sheikh Abdullah’s ascension to the chief minister’s post, with Congress extending support to form the government.

In 1977, two years after Congress withdrew its support, fresh elections were held. The outcome saw Congress lose its footing in many parts of the country, paving the way for Abdullah’s return and a revitalised JKNC. Abdullah remained at the helm until he died in 1982 when his son Farooq Abdullah succeeded him as Chief Minister.

Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah with some of his colleagues, a year after the 1975 accord. The photograph shows the highest flood level in the background.

The 1987 elections were marred by allegations of rigging and are widely regarded as the spark that ignited the region’s prolonged insurgency. A year after Farooq Abdullah’s NC won the 1983 elections, Ghulam Mohammad Shah and a faction of the NC defected in 1984, triggering a political crisis. Shah served as Chief Minister until Governor Jagmohan dismissed his government in 1986.

Rajiv Gandhi grew increasingly concerned about the rising influence of the Muslim United Front (MUF), a coalition gaining popularity. In response, Farooq Abdullah returned as Chief Minister with Gandhi’s backing, on the condition that Congress and NC would contest the 1987 elections jointly.

Despite an impressive 80 per cent voter turnout, reports emerged of voters being coerced into supporting the NC. The growing distrust in the Centre fuelled militancy, culminating in the kidnapping of Union Home Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s daughter by militants in 1989.

The subsequent years were marked by the mass migration of Kashmiri Hindus and widespread violence, accompanied by renewed demands for political autonomy.

A New Chapter

Omar Abdullah visited Budgam to express gratitude to the local electorate for his electoral success.

“I want to thank the people of Budgam and all across Kashmir who believe in the National Conference,” Abdullah told the media. “Our priority now is to fulfil the expectations of the people in Jammu and Kashmir.”

Senior journalist Muzammil Jaleel shared his insights on the recent Jammu and Kashmir elections in a Facebook post. He noted that the majority view in the assembly holds significant weight, particularly given that most regional parties, including the JKNC, campaigned on the promise to fight for the restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status.

“The view of the majority in this assembly, therefore, carries much weight,” Jaleel stated. “Most regional parties, including the NC, maintained through the campaign that the changes made to J&K’s constitutional status and territorial structure were forced through unilaterally by the BJP without the consent of the people or their representatives, and that they would fight for the restoration of the special status once elected.”

Jaleel observed that the election highlighted the deep divide between the Hindu majority in Jammu and the Muslim majority in the hill districts of Jammu and the Kashmir valley. Voters’ preferences were largely split along party lines, with BJP supporters backing the scrapping of articles 370 and 35A, while those seeking restoration of the special status voted for the NC and other regional parties.

Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah with Pandit Nehru and Mrs Indira Gandhi. Mirza Afzal Beig and Dr Farooq Abdullah are also seen in the frame.

“This is why the first elected assembly since August 2019 must express its position on the issue without ambiguity,” Jaleel emphasised. “The numbers are there in favour of a resolution demanding the restoration of the special status.”

In a post-election media interaction, Abdullah expressed surprise at the margin of victory, saying, “We expected to win, but with this margin, it was unexpected.”

A voter who supported JKNC shared their reasoning, “You know how all the other parties have been broken down, and only JKNC is still intact and strong. That’s why we voted for them. JKNC has stood strong against all odds.”

A U-Turn

Omar Abdullah, the new chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir, has made a surprising statement that it’s foolish to demand the restoration of Article 370 from the BJP, the party that scrapped it. This seems to be a U-turn from his previous promise that if elected with a majority, the National Conference (NC) would pass a resolution against the scrapping of Article 370.

Abdullah’s party had made restoration of Article 370 a key promise in their election manifesto, along with 11 other guarantees, including repeal of the Public Safety Act, release of political prisoners, and creation of one lakh jobs. However, Abdullah now prioritises restoring statehood for Jammu and Kashmir, believing that Prime Minister Modi will fulfil his promise to do so.

It’s worth noting that the NC-Congress alliance won the Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections with 49 seats, and Abdullah is tipped to be the new chief minister. The veteran journalist’s Facebook post suggests that despite the Congress’s potential reluctance, the NC has enough numbers to move ahead with the resolution, especially if independent legislators who won after being dropped by the NC due to the alliance return to the party. Other regional parties in the valley may also support the resolution to avoid backlash from their constituents.

Congress President and Rahul Gandhi with Dr Farooq and Omar Abdullah in Srinagar on August 22, 2024, to forge pre-poll alliance in Jammu Kashmir elections

However, Abdullah’s changed stance on Article 370 has raised questions about his commitment to the issue. In 2022, he stated that the NC would continue fighting “democratically, constitutionally, and politically” for the restoration of Article 370. It remains to be seen how this development will impact the party’s relationship with its constituents and allies.

A huge lot of experts believe that Omar’s modest start is fundamental to the cooperation that Jammu and Kashmir’s new CEO requires for rebuilding a space that was undone in last five years.

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