by Azra Hussain
Horoscopes and personality tests often exploit the Barnum effect, our tendency to believe vague, flattering statements, leading to false validation, manipulated perceptions, and vulnerability to pseudoscience, stereotypes, and emotional exploitation.
If you have ever read a newspaper, chances are that you have encountered a horoscope section, somewhat in the vein of “Leo: you will find opportunities to express yourself, deepen your relationships, advance in your career, and focus on your financial and health goals,” or “Virgo: you should seek harmony in personal and professional lives, prioritizing tasks and nurturing relationships to navigate through challenges and seize opportunities.” Seems great, right? Nothing wrong with a small piece of advice and a rough idea of how the day will go. However, once you begin looking closely, you might find that these divinations are not as specific as they seem; in fact, they are all the same.
Here is a fun activity: look up today’s horoscope for every zodiac sign, and properly read through them. The more one focuses on the wording used, the more obvious it is that horoscopes are purposely vague, generalised statements that give the illusion of being highly personalised and specific while applying to basically everyone on planet Earth. Of course, everyone will find an opportunity to express themselves, or want to seek harmony in their life. This is not groundbreaking news; it is a part of being human.
Another activity to do is to take a personality test of any kind, like a 16-factor personality or an MBTI test, and read through the results. Read through them. A significant trend you will notice is an overabundance of positive statements about each personality, and, again, ideas that seem very specific but can be applied to a great deal of people. Inquisitiveness or confidence is not limited to a specific ‘personality type,’ and the makers of these quizzes know that, so they sprinkle in the same concept using different words in each description to make the results seem personalised.
If practices like astrology and personality testing are so easily debunked, why do people fall for them? The answer to that does not boil down to simply naivete or ignorance, but points toward a far more complex phenomenon – the Barnum effect.
The Barnum effect is what psychologist Bertram Forer called “the fallacy of personal validation.” It operates on the principle of subjective validation, a kind of cognitive bias that causes people to accept information as true if it benefits their self-esteem. A statement like, “you have a strong desire to gain deeper knowledge of the world through thought and debate,” is very broad given the natural curiosity and argumentativeness that human beings possess, but it seems like a very unique (and positive) trait that most would want to agree they have. This is an example of a Barnum statement, and it is exactly what it seems to be – a vague, flattering statement that a lot of people think applies to them.
Of course, the gullible nature of most people is an important player in the reinforcement of such patterns of thought. Human beings, being social animals, seek to be part of a whole; of something bigger than themselves, and identifying with a group like a zodiac sign or a personality type can provide people with a sense of community and belonging. We also have a habit of searching for meaning in everything, even in essentially meaningless things and events. As Viktor E Frankl writes in his book Man’s Search for Meaning, “Those who have a ‘why’ to live, can bear with almost any ‘how’.”
If the Barnum effect provides people with a sense of comfort and identity, why should it be discouraged? There are a few reasons for that, the most important of which is that it is essentially a departure from reality. It is easy to believe that a description on a website perfectly explains you. It is easy to think that you are aggressive. After all, you are a Leo, or passionate, because you are a Sagittarius. It is easy to attribute both your goods and follies to an arbitrary term or a symbol you once heard of, but the problem is that it is not real. What you are, what your choices are, is not influenced by anything other than yourself and your surroundings, and to assert that one acts a certain way due to their sign or personality type is not just erroneous but also avoidant.
Another extremely important reason is that gullibility makes it easy for nefarious people to take advantage of the vulnerable and naive. It is far easier to fall for fortune-telling scams or websites that provide paid subscriptions to tell you what you feel like when you are already deep into these beliefs. It is easy to lose your actual sense of self and reality when you are swept away by generalised ideas, which can lead to you losing your ground and exposing you to far more outlandish conspiracy theories.
Despite seeming misguided, but ultimately innocent, sweeping statements that group people togather can create stereotypes about other groups. The problem with assigning arbitrary characteristics to a large group is that not only do the people in the group begin identifying with these traits, but people outside the group can assign these traits to people inside it. If you identify with a set of traits assigned to a group you might belong to, you will not only reinforce them for yourself, but also for the people around you.
The most effective way to combat the Barnum effect is to engage with the media critically. Passive, thoughtless consumption is easy and mind-numbing, and can lead to cognitive biases. Once you know that you, like every other human, are susceptible to this effect, it will be easier to catch yourself falling for it and suffering from clouded judgment. It is important to understand and examine the information you are provided, and this is true for all media consumption, to gauge the motive of the author. Is the purpose of this article to provide information or to sell something? Questions like these should always be asked when presented with anything you see on the Internet.
An important technique to employ in critical thinking and consumption is to do research. If you see a statement directed at you (e.g. “Ten signs you have OCD”), do research about the thing instead of accepting it at face value. It is important to seek evidence for the beliefs you have, and this extends to your Internet browsing habits as well. Scepticism, while unfortunately discouraged in today’s society, is a vital tool for learning, and asking questions will, if nothing else, provide you with an answer.
Something worth taking into account is that all humans, without fail, are susceptible to cognitive bias. While it may be easy for you to think, “I would never fall for such a scam,” people who use this effect to their advantage are well aware of the methods to manipulate an individual’s perception of reality. Human beings seek patterns, reasons, and signs in everything, and that is because people seek meaning in life. Things like science and religion can offer a direction in life, but now and then, people slip through the cracks of life and fall victim to pseudoscience and adjacent practices. Understanding that most of these people are not that different from you can help you approach them with understanding and sympathy instead of judgment.
(Author is a student of Psychology. Ideas are personal.)
