Unlike long chaotic lines seeking currency notes to manage their basics, Kashmir is sitting home and watching it in their bedrooms. A traditional hoarder of food, the crisis-ridden, strike-stunned valley has enough of cushions to manage this little tension, reports Tasavur Mushtaq
The chaos triggered by demonetization of twin currency notes has already claimed 55 lives. So when Congress man Ghulam Nabi Azad said “Even half this number of people were not killed in Uri because of terrorism”, he was not incorrect.
The crisis haunts even on the TV screens. People do not even have money to feed their babies. During Morarji Deasi’s regime when similar Rs 500 note was demonitized, it was less than 10 percent of the money in circulation. Now the twin currency notes that Narendra Modi demonetized make 86 percent of the total currency in circulation. Banks are the epicenter of the crisis-management. But October 2016 data suggests, banks have only access to 53 per cent of the population – by way of account, and interestingly, only 15 percent are operational.
Interestingly, however, Kashmir remains a curious case. Tensions are there but it is no crisis, unlike the mainland India. Grappling with unrest for almost five months now, there is no report of any untoward incident, any death triggered by hunger, black money or conversion of notes. Kashmir has long been projected as having a parallel economy, rather economies – one dependent on corruption, another driven by politics, third funded by Hawala and, more recent, discovered by Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar when he said that stone pelters were getting Rs 500 a day.
Rs 3.5 Crore were found floating in a drain and a river at two different places in Guwahati; over Rs 5 crore of cash and gold was intercepted by law enforcing agencies at country’s few major civil airports, the beggars in Kashmir did not find any currency note in the heaps of garbage they scan every morning.
Black money apart, one key factor that Modi government packaged in defence of its decision was that “terror funding” and fake currency will be done away with. But how huge could be the fake currency in circulation?
A study done by the Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, in 2015, suggests at any given point of time Rs 400 crore worth fake notes were in circulation in the economy. This is merely 0.025 percent of the total budget outlay of Rs 19.7 lakh crore as announced this fiscal (2016-17). How much of it keeps Kashmir booing?
The crisis in India did not transcend the boundaries of Kashmir. When jewelers in India were trading gold at all-time high, Kashmir traders shut their shops with a reason “why to trade in haste”. The public management at banks across the state was instrumental with no report of any untoward incident. Taking lead, J&K Bank played the pivotal role in managing the situation.
Besides managing the crowd well, there were many other reasons at play. Grappling with unrest since July 8, Kashmir was cash hungry already. The traders during ‘relaxation hours’ did not return any customer on pretext of having the old currency notes. The entire commercial establishments were closed during the day and thus not so cash transactions took place.
“Nobody was returned empty handed even during purchase of luxuries, leave aside the essentials,” an old city trader Ghulam Muhammad said. “We are already in crisis and we know how not to panic.” Even former Chief Minister Dr Farooq Abdullah managed his shopping in Lal Chowk on credit and that too during ‘relaxation hours’ given by separatists.
Intricately woven society, the liquidity was maintained within small groups, without letting tensions to spread out. With sufficient stocks at home, the people did not find it urgent to buy things from market immediately except daily items. “For a week we used money from piggy banks to sustain and did not visit bank to avoid the crowd,” Saba Gul, a teacher, said. “For requirement of cash, I doubt I can ever be hungry as long as I am home.”
Kashmir is traditionally a hoarder. Generally by October, households have enough basic stocks including fuels enough to last till March. That is because of winter. This suffered slightly because of the unrest but still no household can afford not having a month long provisions in store.
“Crisis is our part, so it does not bother us unlike other people,” a banker said, off the record. “Four months of curfew and hartal and with a ban on everything, people are managing their lives. We have survived the odds- winters, earthquake, floods or conflict.”
Athar Aziz, a university student said the mayhem in mainland India is because they have only demonetization to face. “We live poet Ghalib who once sung: mujhe kya bura tha marna agar ek baar hota.”
But that is not the case that Kashmir is not facing the currency music. Once Kashmir becomes normal – separatists have already announced two full working days for the first time since July 8, there is possibility of crisis, especially for transporters. Incidentally, Kashmir market is facing a scare that the Rs 2000 notes that replaced the withdrawn legal tenders are fake.
Traders do not accept the new note probably because they do not want to lose their liquidity by giving away so much in change. The other thing people talk about is the size and the colour. “It is fake, it loses colour,” one woman was heard telling a vegetable vendor in Lal Chowk.
