by Professor Rattan Lal Hangloo
New Delhi’s policymakers must recognise that Kashmiris are an integral part of India’s multicultural fabric, and their assimilation will occur through gradual organic growth, not coercion.
Kashmir stands as a unique crucible of complex and ambivalent political forces, unparalleled elsewhere on the globe. India asserts its claim as an integral part of the nation, while Pakistan views it as an unresolved legacy of partition. For some, Kashmir is inextricably linked to the broader Umma, whereas others see it as a strategic prize, where, as EF Knight observed, three empires once converged.
These disparate perceptions, coupled with the varied treatment of Kashmiris by internal and external forces, preclude a unified approach to the 2024 assembly election. Kashmiris have tempered their expectations, no longer anticipating a transformative shift that would suddenly elevate their capacities for wise self-governance, a notion unsupported by their past experiences.
The crisis that has beset the region since 1947 has endowed even ordinary Kashmiris with a profound understanding and insight, allowing them to adapt swiftly to changing circumstances and maintain a deliberate silence. This silence may be misinterpreted by the contemporary Indian state.
In various regions, Indian democracy has been marked by extreme governmental instability, rampant unemployment, lawlessness, and broken promises, accompanied by inflation, institutional and constitutional breakdowns, perpetual military insurgencies, and oscillations between anarchy and despotism.
While many Kashmiris have become politically disillusioned, they remain reluctant to engage in public affairs or participate spontaneously. When coerced into involvement by external individuals or organisations, their response is often hostile.
In the past, instances of electoral manipulation have occurred, notably during the 1987 assembly elections, where officials allegedly rigged polls to secure government-backed candidates’ victories. However, this tactic ultimately backfired, as violence against citizens and their property escalated from 1989-90, driving voters to seek solace in Pakistan as a potential saviour.
The 1987 assembly election, marked by a landslide victory, foreshadowed the ominous trajectory of Kashmir’s political landscape, leading to a significant erosion of democratic rights. The National Conference and Congress alliance were complicit in undermining the electoral process, aware of the consequences of their actions.
As one observer noted, “They acted with their eyes shut and justified their victory in the untrue spirit.” By denying political equality, they prioritised party interests over democratic principles, revealing a troubling disregard for the electoral process.
Since 1990, Kashmiris have faced perpetual displacement due to varied forces, leaving them unable to adapt to changing circumstances. A candid examination of the facts reveals a stark disconnect between the genuine public opinion of Kashmiris and the votes extracted from them.
The complex attitude of Kashmiris towards the current political situation is, therefore, unavoidable, if the central government continues to employ discriminatory and coercive measures. Kashmiris are entrenched in a milieu of traditions, customs, habits, and institutions, which, coupled with fear, significantly influence their decision-making, often overshadowing reason and innate capacity.
The situation has been exacerbated by the BJP government’s deliberate attempts to alter constituency patterns through delimitation and other contentious measures, devoid of reasonable justification, except to target demographic patterns and assert dominance.
The subversive passions ignited in 1990, coupled with the grave internal dangers that emerged, significantly contributed to the Government’s descent into disastrous decades of turmoil in Kashmir. Notably, many astute observers in Kashmir believe that Pakistan’s involvement has caused more harm than good, leading to widespread disillusionment with Pakistan’s political overtures.
In the current electoral landscape, the abrogation of Article 370, the bifurcation and downgrading of statehood to a union territory, and the BJP’s communal policies and apathy towards non-BJP ruled states have become pivotal issues in numerous constituencies. These factors transcend the ebbs and flows of public opinion and are independent of the Government’s policy quality. They have become a crucial determinant in the outcome of the 2024 assembly elections in the region.
Unlike certain areas of the Indian mainland, where voters may be swayed by bribery, intimidation, or the desire to curry favour with those in power, the situation in Kashmir is distinct. Here, the electorate’s choices are driven by a complex array of factors, setting the stage for a unique and significant electoral contest.
In Kashmir’s complex political landscape, two influential forces wield significant power alongside mainstream parties and local leaders connected to the leftist movement. These entities exert considerable influence over voters through impassioned sermons, which have become a crucial aspect of practical politics in Kashmir.
Religiosity and prejudice also play a substantial role in political propaganda, with demagogues from various parties, including dissenters, attempting to persuade rural voters that adopting a particular policy will yield benefits for their community. The Gujjar and Bakarwal communities, once considered uninformed, now hold their own opinions, with biases rooted in their creed and religiosity often displaying remarkable vitality.
The Kashmiri Pandits, a diminutive minority, possess a negligible vote share, rendering their electoral influence inconsequential. But when they left Kashmir, it confined them to a narrow sphere of personal suffering, ideas, and immediate interests. Although dispersed globally, lacking a unified base, and no longer contributing to Kashmir’s public discourse, they still demonstrate remarkable astuteness in judgment.
In contrast, Jammu’s political culture diverges, with a strong presence of RSS/BJP adherents in most constituencies, except Doda and Punch. However, the predominant concern driving public opinion is the precipitous decline of businesses under BJP’s policies, severely impacting the lives of Jammuites. This predicament has left them uncertain. The Jammu business class, possessing a distinct identity and substantial material interests, wields local influence as entrepreneurs and employers, shaping the regional political landscape.
In Kashmir, the corrupt practices prevalent in its democratic system pose a greater threat to the region’s prosperity than those of the past. The democratic landscape in Jammu and Kashmir diverges significantly from the rest of India, with the delimitation experiment yielding particularly pernicious consequences. This development warrants scrutiny from serious political observers within and beyond Kashmir.
A prevailing sentiment among Jammu and Kashmir’s intelligentsia suggests that a degree of political apathy is necessary in these circumstances. However, if driven by a robust and sincere political will, they would not acquiesce to their subordinate position, largely imposed by the abrogation of Article 370, bifurcation, and revocation of statehood. Many disillusioned individuals anticipate impending collisions, culminating in organic change.
Across political divides, politicians in Kashmir and New Delhi must acknowledge the lingering misconceptions in the public mind. Despite the BJP’s claims of improvement, there is still room for progress. To foster a unified future for Kashmiri society, it is essential to dispel these misunderstandings and replace them with clear ideas about the region’s political future. As these conditions are met, misconceptions will gradually dissipate, and the future will be shaped by pragmatic considerations.
In today’s interconnected world, globalisation and communication networks have created unprecedented unity, yet also highlighted the world’s diversity. Jammu and Kashmir possesses unique specificities, which democratic political thought must acknowledge and respect. This means embracing the region’s divergence within unity, without discriminating based on religion, region, caste, or tribe. The evolution of Centre-State relations requires continuity and time. However, in Kashmir, some groups exhibit stubborn inertia, testing the patience of rationalists. New Delhi’s policymakers must recognise that Kashmiris are an integral part of India’s multicultural fabric, and their assimilation will occur through gradual organic growth, not coercion.
The present government’s paramount duty is to administer affairs with steadfast wisdom, tolerance, and integrity. However, many in Kashmir harbour grave doubts about the current government’s ability to fulfil these expectations, particularly given its democracy’s glaring underrepresentation of certain communities. This oversight threatens to destabilise the Indian state, with potentially catastrophic consequences.
A truly effective Indian democracy in Kashmir must possess a captivating charm that soothes, reconciles, and draws in Kashmiris, thereby dismantling the politics of secessionism. By doing so, it can bring each distinct group into sharper focus, allowing the vibrant political life of Kashmir – long suppressed, unexpressed, or stifled – to flourish without erupting into volcanic fury once more.
(The author served as a professor of History and renowned academic leader with a distinguished career spanning multiple institutions, including Hyderabad Central University, Kalyani University, and University of Allahabad, where he served as Vice-Chancellor. Currently, Honorary Vice-Chancellor of Noble International University, Canada. Ideas are personal.)
