Though the assembly in Jammu and Kashmir has compromised its status and strength, it is expected to have visitors finally by October 2024 as the Election Commission of India announced the three-phase poll schedule, writes Faiqa Masoodi
A general impression in Jammu and Kashmir’s political class was that the government of India would take Lt Governor Manoj Sinha’s consistent insistence seriously that Kashmir will be militancy-free by 2026. It was something that even Home Minister Amit Shah endorsed. However, the Supreme Court-set deadline and the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls early this year were key factors that led to a rethink.
Still, sources in the Jammu and Kashmir administration suggest they expected the formal announcement to come by late August. It was a six-phase staggered election, as they had anticipated. Then the dramatic developments took place so fast that even the Raj Bhawan in Srinagar had to advance its decision-making as the moral code of conduct came in place.
By 3 pm on August 16, the Commission was in a press conference. “People in Jammu and Kashmir opted for ballots instead of bullet and boycott (during the recent Lok Sabha election). The valley reached a new peak, witnessing a 30-point jump in poll participation from 2019,” Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar, flanked by Election Commissioners Gyanesh Kumar and SS Sandhu, said. “The people want change… they want to script a new future”.
Talking about the Commission’s recent Jammu Kashmir visit, Kumar talked of the “great enthusiasm”. “People want to participate in the process. People want elections as early as possible” he said, recalling the “long queues” at polling booths in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh during the Lok Sabha polls.
The Commission announced the election, after a decade, to be held in three phases on September 18, 25 and October 1. The first phase of voting will take place in 24 Assembly constituencies, while 26 seats will go to the polls in the second phase, and 40 seats in the third phase. This will also be the first Assembly poll after the reading down of Article 370 in 2019. The counting is slated for October 4, 2024.
The last time, Jammu and Kashmir went to polls was a five-phase exercise in November and December 2014. By early 2015, it led to the BJPDP coalition, which collapsed in June 2018 when the BJP withdrew support to the PDP. On August 5, 2019, the BJP government revoked Article 370 of the Constitution and split the State into two federally administered Union Territories. In late 2023, the Supreme Court’s constitution bench upheld the abrogation and set September 2024 as the deadline for the assembly elections.
The commission anticipates the majority of the electors participating, given the Lok Sabha participation. Jammu and Kashmir has 87.09 lakh voters including 3.71 lakh first-timers.
Orders Rained
The Jammu and Kashmir administration was perhaps informed of the happening late. It quickly got into action and started issuing orders. Already the ECI had directed the administration to ensure no officer is posted in his home district and the officers who have completed their tenure need to move out. Some orders had been issued already but too many will still awaiting orders.
In less than 12 hours, the administration reshuffled nearly 200 officers in police and civil administration. Newsrooms were flashing one order and a second was already in the mailbox.
It even panicked Kashmir’s political class. “That the Jammu Kashmir administration had to call officers in the secretariat and police HQ to work on Independence Day to order this massive reshuffle tells me they had absolutely no clue that the ECI (Election Commission of India) would announce poll dates today,” JKNC leader Omar Abdullah said. “All the more reason that the ECI’s SVEEP should look at this transfer order from the prism of a free and fair poll. The NC suspects a biased intent on the part of the L-G administration.”
Terming it “strategically shaken up the entire administrative setup”, Ali Mohammad Sagar, another senior leader alleged it is intended to “undermine the integrity of the electoral process, which restricts such transfers to prevent the ruling party from gaining an undue administrative advantage over the Opposition”. He insisted: “It appears to have been orchestrated by a BJP-appointed LG to benefit his party and its allies.”
“Around 150-200 transfers happened abruptly and arbitrarily,” a PDP leader said. “The LG administration’s behaviour is full of prejudice and bias in favour of the BJP. Our concern is that elections should be conducted free, fair and transparent.”
The Administrative Council
Transfers apart, the administrative council – the de facto cabinet with Manoj Sinha in the chair with his lone adviser and the Chief Secretary, sat and issued a series of orders.
It approved the creation of 83 posts in the Prosecution Department, 772 posts for the Government Railway Police (GRP) and 30 posts for the State Election Commission, which has been operating without dedicated staff since its formation in 2020.
To enhance administrative efficiency and provide career progression and employment opportunities for youth, the council created 46 new posts and upgraded 29 positions.
The Council approved a comprehensive revision and introduction of new schemes for the J&K Academy of Art, Culture and Languages (JKAACL) to support local artists and sustain cultural activities in Jammu and Kashmir. These initiatives include expanding the publication of Sheeraza to additional languages, organising writers’ camps, showcasing local theatrical productions nationally, and reviving traditional art forms. Financial support for artists, literary awards, and international cultural exchanges are also part of this Rs 5.76 crore initiative.
Besides, it approved the operational guidelines for the Jammu and Kashmir Startup Policy 2024-27 to boost youth-led start-ups. The guidelines outline provisions for start-up recognition, seed funding, application processes, awards, and networking opportunities. JKEDI, the decision said will serve as the nodal agency for implementing the policy, which aims to nurture entrepreneurial talent and create a robust start-up ecosystem in the region.
The Council approved Project YUVA (Yuva Udyami Vikas Abhiyan), a transformative initiative aimed at boosting employment through entrepreneurship across Jammu and Kashmir. The programme focuses on creating 1.37 lakh enterprises over the next five years, generating employment for 4.25 lakh youths with a budgetary support of Rs 1830 crore and an additional influx of Rs 5000 crore from financial institutions. Its four-pronged strategy targets mass self-employment, new MSMEs, business acceleration, and innovative enterprises, with interventions centred around culture, capital, capacity, and connectivity. This initiative is set to foster a dynamic entrepreneurial ecosystem, transforming the UT’s economy and creating long-term prosperity.
Then there were issues linked to the land. The Council approved the transfer of 2292 kanals and 2 marlas of land for various departments, including 1212 kanals in Kathua and 1070 kanals in Samba, designated for establishing industrial estates to spur regional development and create employment opportunities. Additionally, land in Ganderbal was allocated for the construction of a police post and station to enhance law enforcement infrastructure and ensure proper accommodation for police personnel, improving public safety and law enforcement capabilities.
The more important and politically impactful decision was the Council’s approval to the transfer of Evacuees’ land to Displaced Persons (DPs) of 1947, 1965, 1971, and West Pakistan, granting them proprietary rights similar to those already conferred over State land. The Custodian was asked to ensure the transfer is completed within six months, with proper safeguards to prevent misuse. This decision, addressing long-standing demands, will process applications within 30 days and follow land ceilings set by past regulations, providing significant relief to displaced families.
All these decisions landed in newsrooms like a hail storm. That was exactly how some of the decisions taken by the central government were dramatic. Some of the decisions were not expected either in Srinagar or in Jammu.
A New DGP
A 1991 Jammu and Kashmir cadre IPS officer, Rashmi Ranjan Swain worked in the state till late 2006 after rising through the ranks and becoming a DIG. In November 2006, he went on deputation to the Government of India and held various positions across the security grid. In June 2020, he returned to Jammu and Kashmir as chief of intelligence and took over as DGP on October 31, 2023, holding both positions.
The formal confirmation of his status as DGP came on August 8, 2024. On August 15, Nilin Prabhat, a 1992 IPS officer, was appointed as Special DGP to JKP with direction to succeed Swain when he superannuated on September 30, 2024. The same day, his successor as Intelligence Chief is ordered.
Though not so abnormal, it is unprecedented in the Jammu Kashmir context that the police chief is shifted ahead of the assembly election, which is happening first time in almost a decade. No such thing has happened even during the Amarnath Yatra ever.
Though nothing much is in the public domain, the political grapevine attributes the decision-making to two things: the spurt in militancy-related activities in parts of Jammu and a sustained campaign against him by Jammu and Kashmir’s political class.
Prabhat, his successor, is said to be a ‘conflict zone’ expert who has served in the Naxal belts of Andhra Pradesh. He had a long stint in Kashmir too. He was heading the elite commando force, the National Security Guard (NSG), when the government curtailed his tenure, moved him from the Andhra Pradesh cadre to the AGMUT cadre with immediate effect and posted him to Jammu and Kashmir – all within less than 24 hours.
The highly decorated and staunchly secular Prabhat has a history of serving conflict zones, largely in the Naxal-affected areas of Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra, apart from long stints in Kashmir and Ladakh. He had volunteered to join Andhra Pradesh’s elite counter-Naxal commando force Greyhounds and later headed it in 2018-19. On central deputation, he served in Srinagar and Ladakh as ITBP commandant. In 2007, Prabhat joined the CRPF as DIG (South Kashmir) and oversaw counter-insurgency for three years. After briefly remaining posted in Chandigarh and Bastar, he had another three years in Srinagar. He then moved to Maharashtra and was again in Kashmir in April 2013. He again moved to Delhi and was brought back to Kashmir in early 2023. Since May 2024, he was heading NSG, an assignment that was curtailed to get him back to Jammu and Kashmir, this time as the top man of the security grid.
Political Class
The political class that was desperately seeking polls is happy. They are frustrated at the same time, though they acknowledge that they are anticipating a level playing field, they are yet to talk about what they are going to sell to the voters.
All the parties are busy in creating their narrative. They had already nominated the constituency in-charges and now they feel compelled to work on their manifestos. Then the names of the candidates will be public. However, it is too early to say if they are contesting against each other or if there are some coalitions in the offing. In Lok Sabha, there were efforts to have a loose coalition. While the like-minded on one side – Apani Party, and Peoples Conference – did support each other, the JKNC and PDP fought against each other. There are indications of a loose coalition but there are a lot of ifs and buts in between.
The grapevine has started getting manufactured. The court quashing the Enforcement Directorate case against Jammu and Kashmir’s five-time Chief Minister, Dr Farooq Abdullah is in debate almost everywhere. While people are talking about the newspaper headline, nobody seems to be getting into the text of the news.
By the end of August, everybody in Jammu and Kashmir will know who is up to what, wait and watch. The Jammu and Kashmir administration had already ordered the assembly to be spruced up and make space for additional berths as it will have 90 people plus too many nominated by the government.
