The JKNC-Congress’s pre-poll alliance is expected to emerge as the major power group in the fast-approaching elections in Jammu and Kashmir. This explains how there is remote possibility of the return of single-party rule soon, reports Syed Shadab Ali Gillani
In the fast-approaching and inordinately delayed assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir taking place after a decade, the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC) and the Indian National Congress (INC) are in a pre-poll alliance. They have had a love-hate relationship for most of history but both believe in secularism and inclusion. Despite having distinct manifestos, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi, and JKNC leaders during their recent visit to Kashmir formalised the alliance.
Barring the 2001 Lok Sabha elections when the two parties had a pre-poll alliance, this is the first time that they have joined hands for the elections to the 90-seat assembly.
The JKNC will field 51 candidates and INC will contest in 32 seats. A friendly contest will be held on six seats, with one each reserved for the CPI (M) and Panthers Party. However, a Congress leader, speaking anonymously, clarified that the “friendly contest” would indeed be on six seats – Bhaderwah, Inderwal, Doda, Banihal, Divsar, and Sopore. This peculiar contest is an election in which contestants avoid badmouthing and check their numerical popularity while not disagreeing with each other on core issues.
Currently, the ground reports suggest that this alliance will be the main emerging force in post-2019 Jammu and Kashmir. Home Minister Amit Shah’s criticism – he issued a 10-question poster, is being seen as a barometer of the alliance’s popularity in comparison to other parties.
Omar Abdullah, JKNC Vice President, is confident that the alliance would secure a majority. “The seat-sharing arrangement with the Congress was carefully considered to ensure a majority, which we are confident of achieving,” Omar said.
Nasir Aslam Wani, Omar’s buddy and party provincial head acknowledged that allying was a challenging task, particularly given the unexpected announcement of elections. “Extensive discussions were held on seat adjustments, distribution, and motivating party cadres who had been preparing for elections over the past decade,” he asserted.
No Single Party Rule
The 2024 election is not the first political alliance in Jammu and Kashmir. The single-party rule ended with the first election after Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah’s demise in September 8, 1982. Though the JKNC swept the peak-militancy 1996 ‘election’ the JKNC and INC have been in coalition in 1987 till Dr Farooq Abdullah resigned in 1990.
Alliances and accords have played a major role in ruling and managing Jammu and Kashmir.
A year after the historic Delhi Agreement was signed between Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah-led Jammu and Kashmir and the Prime Minister of India, Jawahar Lal Nehru; Kashmir’s premier was deposed and arrested. The government was taken over by Bakhshi Ghulam Mohammad, who wrested JKNC from his leader too and later made it a mix of Congress influences and the JKNC.
The JKNC merged with Congress in 1964. In the 1967 assembly elections, Congress won 61 seats, while a faction of JKNC secured eight seats only.
The 1975 Indira Gandhi-Sheikh Abdullah Accord marked the beginning of coalition politics in Jammu and Kashmir, formally. The accord facilitated Abdullah’s return to power with Congress’s backing. Though the accord led to Sheikh’s return to power, it was a follow-up to the Delhi Agreement in which the constitutional issues were discussed.
Their alliance, however, was short-lived, fracturing in 1977 and leading to the President’s Rule. The JKNC revitalised under Abdullah’s leadership, secured 47 seats in the subsequent Assembly elections, while Congress fell to third place.
On September 8, 1982, Sheikh Abdullah passed away, paving the way for the transfer of power to Dr Farooq Abdullah. In 1983 polls, the sympathy wave played a huge role and helped Dr Farooq get a comfortable majority.
As Dr Farooq Abdullah joined the national opposition bandwagon and hosted a conclave in Srinagar, his relations with the Indira Gandhi-led Centre deteriorated. In July 1984, Ghulam Mohammad Shah joined hands with Congress and took away a sizable chunk of lawmakers thus toppling Dr Farooq’s government. Shah, his brother-in-law, floated the Awami National Conference and with Congress support ruled Jammu and Kashmir till in March 1986. Jagmohan, the then governor dismissed the Shah government.
By then, Dr Farooq Abdullah had managed to mend fences with Congress, now being led by Rajiv Gandhi, his friend. The reconciliation led to Dr Abdullah’s return to power for 136 days starting November 7, 1986. The two parties decided to contest the polls jointly.
The March 1987 elections, widely believed to be the rigged elections, led to the return of the alliance to power. A grand alliance called Muslim United Front could barely get four seats against the expectations of more than a dozen. Their leaders were arrested. It paved the way for the rise of militancy and the eventual resignation of Dr Farooq-led coalition government on January 19, 1990. Not much is known about the Rajiv Farooq Accord.
The early 1990s insurgency significantly altered political dynamics, with many who contested the 1987 elections on the MUF ticket joining the militancy, claiming election rigging. This led to the rise of coalition politics, with temporary partnerships formed between parties like NC, Congress, and others to address the problem, marking a shift in the region’s political landscape.
In the 1996 elections, the first poll at the peak of militancy, the JKNC won 57 Assembly seats, while the BJP and Congress secured eight and seven seats, respectively. The NC allied with the United Front in the Lok Sabha elections but broke away in 1998. Notably, this marked the last single-party government in Jammu and Kashmir, paving the way for coalition politics in subsequent years.
In 1999, the NC surprisingly joined the NDA coalition, with Omar Abdullah becoming a minister. However, this alliance was unpopular in Kashmir, and the NC performed poorly in the 2002 Assembly elections. Omar lost his seat in Ganderbal, prompting him to resign as a Union minister in 2003 and sever ties with the BJP. The Congress and PDP then formed a coalition government, relegating the NC to political obscurity. They worked on a Common Minimum Programme (CMP) that was negotiated.
In the following 2008 election, Omar Abdullah JKNC formed a coalition government with the Congress, renewing their alliance. The NC had previously supported Congress during the Indo-US nuclear deal vote, and Omar Abdullah became Chief Minister.
The parties collaborated for the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, with Farooq Abdullah joining the Union Cabinet, but their alliance collapsed after the 2014 elections. They reunited in 2017 for the Srinagar Lok Sabha by-poll and formed a tactical alliance for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, with the NC winning two seats.
Another significant alliance in Jammu and Kashmir was the PDP-BJP partnership (2015-2018), formed after the 2014 elections. Mufti Mohammad Saeed led the PDP in an alliance with the BJP, but the government faced hurdles due to opposing ideologies and the security environment, leading to its disintegration in June 2018 and a period of Governor’s Rule.
The repeal of Article 370 in August 2019, which granted special autonomy to Jammu and Kashmir, significantly impacted the political dynamics in the region. During the PDP-BJP alliance, both parties had a common minimum programme, but their opposing ideologies ultimately led to the alliance’s downfall.
For the elections, being held after a delay of a decade in September 2024, this is the first time that JKNC and Congress are having a pre-poll alliance.
With the new delimitation narrowing down the difference in seats between the hugely populous Kashmir region and the thin-populated Jammu region, the possibility of a single-party rule is very difficult in future. In the 90-seat assembly, 43 are now with Jammu. Besides, the government will be nominating five persons who will have voting rights.
Agenda for Cooperation
In coalition politics, a common minimum agenda is often mentioned but rarely formalised. The PDP, JKNC’s bête noire, entered into two post-poll alliances – with Congress in 2002 and with BJP in 2014. In both cases, there are documents outlining the common interest and the agreements on various issues.
However, there is nothing much in the public domain that would help understand the JKNC alliance with Congress. That is perhaps why it has been met with scepticism by some political parties, who view it as driven by a “desire for power”. JKNC’s core idea is the restoration of Article 370 and Article 35A but Congress has not even moved an iota beyond the restoration of statehood, a promise that Home Minister, Amit Shah made on the floor of the house on August 5, 2019.
Congress’s Jammu and Kashmir chief, Tariq Hameed Karra termed the alliance, ‘a national compulsion’ for the betterment of the people in Jammu and Kashmir.
Interestingly, the alliance impacted the focus of Congress. The Congress leadership in Delhi had indicated it would give more attention to Jammu to reclaim the turf that the BJP has taken over. However, Karra and his team’s focus lies in Kashmir. This is not visible because the BJP is facing music in Jammu for its problems within.
Nasir Aslam Sogami, the JKNC’s Provincial head told this reporter that the pre-poll alliance is aimed at keeping the rightwing BJP at bay. Allying was no easy feat, he said especially with the elections being announced sooner than expected. “The process involved extensive discussions on seat adjustments, distribution, and motivating party cadres who had been preparing for elections over the past decade,” Sogami said. He said after winning the elections, the two parties will sit and decide the future course.
