The ongoing agitation has impacted the unionist parties in Kashmir, to the extent making these almost irrelevant. Kashmir Life delves into the state the ongoing popular agitation has pushed them into.
It has started showing. The renewed crisis for the third consecutive summer is gradually creating an impact on Kashmir’s unionist politics. Even as a number of individuals having direct or indirect affiliation with the unionist parties have gone to the local mosques claiming dissociation, there have been at least two resignations that appeared in local newspapers as paid advertisements.
Resignations may or may not mean the repetition of 1990s when most of the press had pages stuffed with resignations, then from National Conference (NC), but it definitely indicates the ground is gradually sliding beneath the feet. Then, the resignations proved a prelude to the migration of NCs entire leadership to Jammu. Dr Farooq Abdullah, who had resigned in protest after Mufti Sayeed, the then Home Minister, appointed Jagmohan as the governor, had actually flown to the UK. The slide, then, could not be controlled even after Dr Abdullah issued small firearms, mostly pistols, to a select group of ground level workers after Mohammad Yusuf Halwai fell to militants’ bullets.
An added worry, this time, is that angry mobs have targeted the properties owned by NC, PDP and Congress leaders across Kashmir. It started with the attack on NC’s north Kashmir MP Shareef-ud-Din Sharik’s Langate home forcing police to fire hundreds of bullets in air. Then it moved south with the attack on the house of another MP (Rajya Sabha) Ghulam Nabi Ratanpuri. So far the houses of Mubarak Gul, a close relation of Ali Mohammad Sagar and agriculture minister Ghulam Hassan Mir’s two houses were attacked in Tangmarg and HMT. They are unable to drive even with their escorts. They are airdropped to districts. Recently minister Aga Ruhullah could not attend a meeting as his security told him his journey from Budgam was too risky.
In most of the cases, it was stone pelting or skipping them from contributing to the Mohalla level relief committees. Police in fact has registered an FIR in a case involving setting fire to a house of an NC worker. Mobs also set afire a school in Sangam that was jointly owned by two legislators of NC and PDP. Before Syed Ali Shah Geelani asked people to desist from any kind of violence, mobs had actually set afire the tehsil office of Congress in Kokernag.
Unionists, this time, do not shy away from accepting it. Ms Mehbooba Mufti, the president of PDP has throughout accepted that they are becoming irrelevant. “The political space for us is definitely shrinking,” she told a reporter, adding, “At this moment in time, what shall we tell people? What promises shall we make to them? Beyond expressing solidarity with them we cannot do anything.”
“Right now, the mainstream politics and politicians have taken a backseat,” Dr Mehboob Beig, NC’s south Kashmir parliamentarian was quoted by a newspaper as saying. As young people are dying and there is widespread anger, there is apparently no possible space even for reaching out to people.
But Home Minister P Chidambaram and later TV anchor Barkha Dutt would not accept. Both of them wanted the unionists, especially the ruling NC to start a reach out programme. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah managed a series of close-door meetings in Srinagar, Anantnag, Baramulla and Handwara but finally it stopped in the SKIMS where he tasted a bit of anger when the injured and their attendants made him to make a hasty retreat. Earlier when his friend Nasir Sogami visited on public outreach programme it led to four killings in less than 24 hours.
It may not be a permanent crisis. It may not be an existential threat as well but it has an impact, positive or negative. Every unionist party is affected either way. Take the case of ruling NC that exists in two forms – a party and a government.
Replacing Omar as chief executive of J&K did crop up in one CCS meeting. It was vetoed by elders and since then it never came up again. Home Minister has been telling his guests that there is requirement of a blueprint that solves the crisis without disturbing Omar. He does not love Omar but seems to have a strong reason.
When Omar’s right hand man and adviser Dewinder Singh Rana visited Syed Ali Shah Geelani in sub-jail Cheshmashahi, he had a plain question (that Geelani disclosed later when he spoke to media from SKIMS) – will the fall of the (state) government cool the tempers? Geelani said the ongoing ‘movement’ has nothing to do with who rules.
This conversation put a lid on rumours that the turmoil will devour the beleaguered Omar government. Since then, not many peoples, perhaps not even PDP now, talks about resignation of Omar as an option. This apparently seems to be Rana’s coup for his master because the government stays firmly.
But it is not. It has huge costs involved. It is an open secret that Home Minister rules J&K, at least on the law and order front, which, apparently seems to be the only activity that the government has. A commentator even compared his regime with that of the Shams-ud-Din Kath who played a transitory caretaker at the peak of holy relic agitation. But New Delhi needs a local face to manage Kashmir, a man who can do strictly as per the directions. The last decision that the state government took at its own was when minister Ali Mohammad Sagar was (ill)advised to go to press against CRPF. Since then drafts come from Delhi and are implemented ditto.
Getting a governor will make Delhi to take the blame for whatever is happening in Kashmir – be it killings, arrests, using Special Operations Group personnel to manage mobs. Managing blame game at local level is a major relief for the centre.
Separatists might be seeing a supporter by default in Omar. His idea of crisis management has eventually made separatists not only relevant but masters of the situation. Even PDP is praying that Omar should not resign because it may create some kind of sympathy among the electorate.
Somewhere. Sometime. But it is Kashmir’s grand old party that is taking the brunt. As Omar government strengthens itself, it weakens the party. Party elders acknowledge it off the record but they lack the courage to reveal it in the party forums. The party is already operating in a number of factions and groups.
PDP is in much of the problem despite the fact that it is Kashmir’s principal polled party and is sitting in opposition. It is currently battling on four fronts that the ongoing crisis triggered.
Its main turf is under clout. Since Mufti Sayeed and his daughter Ms Mehbooba resigned from Congress and set up PDP in 1999, the party has evolved its own agenda. Its emphasis on human rights, and dialogue did fetch it a government for three years in 2002. Since the party lacked a cadre base, it was the victim lot of the society that found solace in supporting it. It encouraged the party to create an agenda that many dub as ‘soft separatism’ though it is not. Its campaign for opening of trans-LoC routes did help the party is making most of the moderates in separatist circles almost irrelevant. Coupled with comparative good governance, it became a deadly combine even for separatists.
But now the separatists have staked claim to the turf they think is theirs. This could shrink the space for the party further.
The second major threat to ‘the alternative to the NC’ is the NC. PDP has proved to be the most vocal opposition that J&K ever had since 1947, but it entails costs. Since Omar Abdullah took over as the chief executive of J&K, he has never indicated to accept it as a reality. Never ever has NC termed it a responsible opposition? In fact the first series of decisions that Omar took were directed at haunting the officials who had allegation of being close to PDP. Naeem Akhter, the spokesman of the party, then a secretary rank officer n government, actually put in his papers well before he could be shunted out. Though some of the decisions were undone after almost a year, the priorities never changed.
This created scenes many a times. Even in a meeting, none other than chief minister said he would stop allocating funds because there was a protest organized against his visit. Ms Mufti, accused the government of even hatching a plan of getting her lynched by a mob in Shopian at the peak of agitation over rape and murder of two women in 2008. The ongoing crisis has shifted the priorities of the government but PDP will remain under fire. Many a times, it was termed to be behind the stone pelters across Kashmir!
Out of power, parties do suffer. It is facing some sort of internal bickering as well. The recent spectacle was when its most senior leader and former Deputy Chief Minister Muzaffar Hussain Beig announced his resignation from the legislature. A newspaper termed it a hoax. Beig had actually resigned but instead of sending his resignation to assembly he had sent to his party president. Why?
The most serious threat to PDP comes from the centre. Delhi has a strange equation with NC and PDP. Delhi equation with NC is inversely proportional to its equation with PDP – Delhi loves Omar and hates Abdullah Sr, it loves Mufti and hates Mehbooba!
The hate against PDP is nothing new. It is centred around the media projection that it is ‘soft separatist’, Kashmir-centric and not trustworthy. Congress’s experience with it in 2002-08 has not gone very well with 10 Janpath. Ms Mufti’s inability in managing her berth in the hip-hop Rahul brigade could be another factor.
But in the given situation, it is party’s hawkish position that could impact it. It decided against attending the All Party Meeting that Omar Abdullah convened on Home Minister’s direction. Even it had the cheeks to say No to the Prime Minister. Later when the all party delegation went to the Prime Minister it was again absent. The decision fetched it very bad publicity in Delhi media but it contributed to its efforts of staying, somehow, relevant in Kashmir.
Unionists will face another litmus test when they will be asked to deliver some ‘out of box’ ideas for settling Kashmir. Home Minister has been telling scribes in Delhi that he is angry with his own party because they have not given him any idea of how to go about Kashmir. He had actually asked the local Congressmen to give him some ideas but they are busy fighting their own battles.
If it becomes an NC versus PDP issues in the unionist camp, there is possibility of the latter scoring a point. Even though Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh talked of autonomy in his televised address to Kashmir last week, but the NCs autonomy is too outdated to be even considered by a common Kashmiri. It once, on insistence of a reporter, said it would demand ‘autonomy plus’ but it is still in minus as far as identifying the plus goes. Comparatively, PDP has its ‘self rule’ that may appeal a section of the people who see Kashmir surviving within the ceiling Dr Singh has sketched – no redrawing of borders and no divisions.
But how will the two parties survive till they are asked to open their cards?
