Kashmir Election: The Independent Crowd

   

For the second time in Jammu and Kashmir’s recent electoral history, 40 per cent of candidates who ran for the 90-seat assembly were independents. While it is too early to predict how many of them will win, the tensions are already in the political class about how they will behave in a house presumed to be hung, reports Babra Wani

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The 2024 Lok Sabha elections yielded a stunning upset in North Kashmir when Engineer Rashid, a jailed lawmaker, defeated the former chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir, an outcome few had anticipated. His unexpected victory earned him the moniker “jailed member of parliament.”

Media featured him prominently on the front pages and gave him prime time slots. At least in Jammu and Kashmir, social media went gang-ho with his story. His victory “inspired” many in Kashmir to get attention and crawl into the challenging ruing of politics. His success was one reason why several individuals contested the Assembly Elections in Jammu and Kashmir, which took place after a 10-year hiatus.

The Jail Factor

For some, the motivation to run for office stems from a deeply personal desire to secure the release of loved ones from jail. This driving force is evident in the stories of independent candidates like Sugra Barkati (who campaigned for her jailed father) and Ajaz Ahmed Guroo, who contested to bring attention to his son, who is currently in jail.

Sugra Barkati, campaigning for her jailed father Sarjan Barkati, and Ajaz Ahmed Guroo, Afzal Guroo’s brother fighting for his son’s release, exemplify this trend.

“I am contesting these elections to secure my parents’ release,” Barkati said. “Our goal extends beyond my family; we seek the freedom of every Kashmiri behind bars. If my father wins, we will ensure Kashmir’s development.”

“My son, Shoaib, has been held in Central Jail, Kot-Bhalwal, Jammu, since December 2023 on drug-related charges under the Public Safety Act,” Aijaz Guroo, 58, explained. “I believe these charges are fabricated.” Aijaz, a former animal husbandry employee, has pledged to advocate for those arrested under similar circumstances.

This time, a notable development in the current elections was the participation of independent candidates backed by Jamaat-e-Islami, a banned socio-political organisation. There were at least 10 Jamaat-backed candidates in the 3-phase assembly election which concluded last week.

With the organisation banned since February 2019, one of the major cadre-based organisations is facing a serious crisis. While most of its leaders are in jail, it has not been able to continue its routine activities. For almost a year now, there have been some contacts with the party leaders and the government involving some local politicians. Many think the mid-poll Home Minister Amit Shah’s visit during the Lal Sabha elections might have something linked to it. However, it did not result in any Jamaat cadre getting into the polls, then.

This time, however, many candidates with Jamaat background contested the election and justified their participation for the first time after 1987. Some of them like the Bandipora candidate would campaign with his police fixed GPS anklet on. It is too early to say if any of their candidates wins but the fact remains that they contested independently.

Independent Candidates

The media attention remained focused on few given the personal stories they had to share. However, there were too many people contesting independently. Independent candidates have historically participated in elections, but their presence is notably more significant in 2024, accounting for 40 per cent of candidates. 385 candidates contested for 90 assembly berths, this season.

Engineer Rashid’s AwamiIttehad Party (AIP) fielded candidates in 35 to 40 seats in Kashmir. As the AIP is not registered with the Election Commission of India (ECI), its candidates will compete individually.

Historical context reveals that independent candidates comprised 37 per cent of contenders in the 2008 assembly elections, with 190 candidates. This number decreased to 87 in 2014. The total number of applicants also dropped from 468 in 2008 to 274 in 2014. However, 2024 sees a resurgence, with 365 candidates, making it the second-highest number of independent candidates after 2008.

The Sopore assembly seat, once a hub of militancy and electoral boycott activities, now boasts the highest number of independent and total candidates. Twenty-two candidates are vying for the seat, 14 of whom are independents. The Sonawari segment in Bandipora district follows closely, with 20 candidates, 11 of them independents. This area has traditionally been influenced by the banned Jamaat-e-Islami organisation.

Notably, many independent candidates are former leaders from regional parties, including the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), National Conference (NC), and Congress party.

“This can benefit the Bharatiya Janata party, as it appears to be a divide-and-rule policy,” said a Srinagar-based political analyst. “Given the current situation, it is clear who is backing whom. The independent candidates who win will play a crucial role in forming Jammu and Kashmir’s government, as they are less swayed by local regional parties, which are wary of them.”

Omar Abdullah has repeatedly described independent candidates as “pawns of the centre,” intended to “divide votes” and advance the centre’s interests.

Unlike previous elections, where independents struggled to make an impact, many contesting independents now enjoy significant popular support. Kulgam’s SayarAhmed Reshi, an independent candidate, has drawn large crowds to his rallies and campaigns. “People are supporting me, and God willing, I will win,” the Jamaat-backed candidate said in a media interaction.

Other independents with considerable popularity include Aijaz Ahmad Mir from Zainapora, Advocate Shabbir Ahmed Kulle from Shopian, and Nazir Ahmad Khan from Beerwah.

The Fragmented Vote

The 2022 delimitation process increased the number of Assembly seats from 87 to 90, with 47 allocated to Kashmir and 43 to Jammu. This change has also led to an increase in voters and candidates.

The surge in independent candidates has sparked speculation, with major regional parties claiming these individuals are backed by the central government. The objective is not to make them win but to disrupt the elector preferences.

Mehbooba Mufti, former Chief Minister and PDP chief, expressed concern about the potential impact.“We have to unite to prevent the large number of independents fielded by Delhi from dividing the votes,” she told the media.

Tariq Ahmed Karra, President of the Jammu and Kashmir Pradesh Congress Committee, made similar allegations earlier this month. “The BJP knows it cannot win in Jammu and Kashmir under its name, so it has put up independent candidates. This is an admission of their weakness; they are using proxies to divide the vote, as they know they cannot secure a majority.”

Defection Law

If any of them wins, they will be free to choose the group they will work with. This is as true with Jamaat as it is true with Engineer’s candidates. The anti-defection law is making floor crossing difficult for the party candidates rather than those who win independently.

The anti-defection provision, also known as the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution, was introduced following the 1967 Lok Sabha elections, which witnessed widespread defections. Notably, up to 176 independent legislators joined parties, yet a 1969 committee chaired by Y B Chavan took no action. The law was amended in 1985 to cover both independent and nominated members.

Independent legislators contest elections without party affiliation, whereas party-nominated members are selected by the party leadership.

Banned Jamaat-e-Islami-backed independent candidate Hafiz Sikander (Bandipora) showing his GPS anklet to the crowd in an election rally in September 2024. KL Image: Sajid Raina

Changes to the anti-defection law in 1985 barred independent legislators from joining parties, while nominated MPs were given six months to join one.

The statute covers various scenarios, including an MLA or MP who voluntarily relinquishes party membership after winning on that party’s ticket, or votes against the party’s intentions in the House, resulting in loss of position. Independent legislators who join a party after winning a seat must also give up their position. This happened in Jammu and Kashmir as well. Last time Tariq Hameed Karra defeated Dr Farooq Abdullah in the Lok Sabha election and became a PDP MP. Later, he joined Congress and resigned from the seat, which paved the way for Dr Farooq Abdullah to reclaim the seat.

Nominated MPs have six months to join a party after being nominated; failure to do so within this timeframe risks losing their House position.

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