Kashmiris have a mixed feeling towards Obama’s India visit, while some expect him to talk Kashmir, most do not. Khursheed Wani reports.  

The public uprising that began in Kashmir in mid-June following the killing of a teenager redirected the attention towards the embattled region, both internally and internationally. The avoidable use of force by the state government under constant backing of New Delhi to quell the rebellion resulted into death of 111 civilians.

Incidentally, the situation in Kashmir took this unexpected turn during and in run up to two important events. First, the uprising was at its peak in September during the UN General Assembly’s annual session. The second important event that takes place is the arrival of US President Barack Obama in New Delhi in the first week of November.

The people in Kashmir have mixed feelings on Obama’s visit, from hope to desperation. The politically sensitive population in Kashmir has started to keep a track of Obama. In the backdrop of the recent turmoil, they expect that the US President would, at least, speak about Kashmir and exert his influence to initiate process for the final resolution of Kashmir. However, the optimism of the man in street is not completely shared by the people who watch the developments rather objectively and seriously, even though the levels of optimism and pessimism vary in range.

“I don’t see President Obama making an overt statement on Kashmir. There shall be definitely some talking on Kashmir, but on a quiet basis,” said Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, head of the moderate faction of Hurriyat Conference.

Mirwaiz said that Kashmir is definitely linked with US policy on Pakistan and Afghanistan and in terms of Pakistan’s stability, the Kashmir resolution is an important factor. “The way US envoy Richard Holbrooke is maneuvering in Pakistan, it gives a hope that India would be asked to settle Kashmir (issue) so that Pakistan is engaged more effectively in Afghanistan matters,” he said.

Mirwaiz said that New Delhi is playing its cards in the backdrop of Obama visit. For this, he points out the haste that was exhibited in forming panel of interlocutors and pushing them into Kashmir for the first round of talks.

“We believe this was an aimless initiative for us. That is why we did not engage with India’s PR exercise (interlocutors), though we are positive for purposeful and result-oriented dialogue.” Instead, Mirwaiz said, his group launched a signature campaign to emphasize on the necessity of resolution of Kashmir issue.

Hurriyat Conference (G) Chairman Syed Ali Shah Geelani refrains from commenting on whether Obama would discuss Kashmir or not. “We will come to know when he actually speaks in Delhi. However, we would like him to budge from the traditional stance of describing Kashmir as a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan,” he said. “Kashmir is not a territorial dispute but the issue of perpetual denial of right to self-determination to its people by India since 1947. There are broken promises and we want them to be fulfilled,” he said.

Geelani, who spoke from his residence under house arrest said that his group would continue to stage “extremely peaceful protests” during Obama’s visit to India.

People’s Conference leader Sajjad Ghani Lone is not much optimistic. “Americans don’t want a war between nuclear powers India and Pakistan. He (Obama) will stick to the traditional US approach that his government would encourage India and Pakistan to settle their disputes bilaterally”.

Lone says that Indian lobby in the US has, in a way, defeated annexing Kashmir with the Af-Pak policy. “In Delhi, Obama would not seek to annoy Indians and would focus more on his country’s economic interests”.

Lone advocates focusing on opinion building in India rather than looking at the US. “See how a single Arundhati Roy shook the Indian mindset on Kashmir. There are hundreds of Arundhatis in India. We should rather focus on them to see concrete results,” he opined.

Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has not spoken on Obama’s India visit except for the security scenario in its backdrop. He chaired a Unified Headquarters meeting specially to ensure that nothing close to the repetition of Chittisinghpora massacre of Sikhs, happens. Sources said that the security and intelligence agencies have been asked to remain extra-vigilant to maintain the situation in Kashmir in “normal limits”.

More than the security of minorities, the Unified Headquarters and the Core Group headed by XV Corps Commander Lt Gen NC Marwah sought to ensure that there is no public uprising during Obama’s visit. A top source said that the chief minister has directed security forces to exercise maximum restraint, avoid interface with public and never use bullets to quell demonstrations. “Any uprising during Obama’s visit in Kashmir would have broader impact,” the source said.

Dr. Gul Muhammad Wani who teaches political science at Kashmir University shares Mirwaiz’s contention that Obama would not make any overt reference on Kashmir deviating from traditional US policy. “He may, of course, take up Kashmir in one-on-one meetings with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Sonia Gandhi or LK Advani but to expect any statement on Kashmir is far fetched,” he said.

Wani backs his argument by emphasizing on growing economic collaboration between India and the US. “India’s position has deepened in imperatives of new economy, trade and employment opportunities. The US is delicately placed in South Asia with Pakistan and it cannot ignore new strategic partner in India,” he said.

He said the public opinion in India and the US about each other has undergone a drastic change in recent years. “According to Pew Research Center survey, Indians have surpassed Israelis in looking at the US as friendly country”.

Wani said that despite India’s growing economic stature, Pakistan would not allow US to toe Indian line on Kashmir.

“Pakistan is far more deep rooted in the US. The Pakistani diaspora is stronger and in run up to Obama’s India visit, Pakistan Foreign Minister has spent enough time in Washington to emphasize on Pakistan’s stance,” he said.

Professor of Law, Dr. Sheikh Showkat Hussain says that any development on Kashmir during Obama’s visit would largely depend on how far the strategic interest of the US will prevail over the economic interests. He links Kashmir with Pakistan’s engagement on its western borders. He says that Pakistan would like the US to help it on Kashmir settlement.

And, Pakistan has been overtly saying this. On Thursday, the foreign office spokesman Abdul Basit expressed the hope that during his forthcoming visit to India, US President would take up issues central to ensuring peace and stability in the region.

“Pakistan hopes that the US being a big power can play its role for regional peace”.

Former Indian National Security Advisor Brijesh Mishra said in a TV interview that US has to be engaged in matters relating to safety and security of India in the backdrop of growing strategic alliance between Pakistan and China. “It is not (just) an all-weather friendship but an alliance. In next three or four years, this relationship (between Pakistan and China) is going to be problematic for India’s security,” he said.

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